1. A calm examination of 'seeing 140,000': imagination detached from reality is not acceptable.
Currently, many market views directly see Bitcoin rising to 140,000, but a fundamental logic cannot be ignored: it has not even touched the 120,000 round number yet, yet skips over key resistance to talk about further targets, which is essentially 'faith recharge' rather than rational analysis. The core of cryptocurrency trading is 'following signals,' not 'price movements rely solely on imagination' — predictions detached from price, volume, and patterns are no different from 'blind guesses' and 'calculations,' ultimately misleading operations.
2. Peculiarities of hourly breakthroughs: massive volume yet did not meet expectations; caution against liquidity cleaning.
The hourly yellow trend line for Bitcoin has been breached, but there is a clear divergence in volume and price performance:
• Abnormal volume: The yellow arrow corresponds to a position that released 'massive volume,' but the price only broke 118,544 USD, not even touching 119,000 USD — under normal circumstances, such large volume should at least challenge 120,000 USD; this 'volume-price divergence' is more likely a deliberate rally to clear above short liquidity rather than a genuine upward intention.
• Key Resistance Verification: Currently facing resistance at 118,791 USD; if it can break through, it can look towards the ladder targets of 'high one, high two, high three' on the left; if it cannot break through and falls below the yellow trend line, this confirms the 'liquidity cleaning' logic, and caution is needed for pullbacks after a false breakout (especially since weekend liquidity is low, the price authenticity is questionable).
3. Key Level Trading Strategy: Anchor breakthrough validity and Fibonacci rhythm.
• Long Strategy:
1. Volume breakthrough at 118,418 USD → short-term long position, quick in and out (need to be cautious due to volume-price divergence);
2. Hourly stability above 118,450 USD → target 119,388 → 120,023 USD; if it cannot hold, abandon;
3. Fibonacci Key Level: Must break and hold above the 61.8% level (118,625 USD) to continue rising to the target of 120,490 USD. If it reaches 120,490 USD, substantial profit-taking on long positions is advised (avoid greed of 'eating from the head to the tail of the fish'), only leaving a core position to gamble on the 1.618 extension (considered a windfall, not a certainty).
• Short Selling Strategy:
1. Volume-driven drop below 117,771 USD → right-side shorting; if the pullback cannot be reclaimed, stop loss;
2. 4-hour level breaks below 117,444 USD → establishes a pullback, looking down at 116,423 → 115,642 → 114,321 USD.
Summary: Volume is the touchstone, discipline is the amulet.
The current core contradiction for Bitcoin is the 'massive breakthrough yet limited gains'; operations must abandon the fantasy of 140,000 and closely monitor the resistance at 118,791 USD and the support of the yellow trend line. Core principle: breakthroughs need sustained volume validation; profit-taking should leave some room; pullbacks should be watched for key support breaches. The market is never short of opportunities; what is lacking is the ability to maintain rational composure amidst frenzy.
Meeting adjourned.
