Bitcoin's Boxed Fluctuation and Trend Bottom Line Defense Strategy After False Breakout

I. Core Pattern and Trend Signal Analysis

Last night, Bitcoin briefly pierced upward in a false breakout of the triangle, forming a long upper shadow, but fortunately, it made a new high (avoiding the danger signal of not making a new high). Current key changes:

• The hourly acceleration line has been broken, and the price has returned to oscillate within the box. The lower boundary of the box at $116,027 is a safety line for short-term bulls—if maintained, the oscillation continues; if broken, it will test the lower boundary of the triangle at $113,688;

• Even if it retraces to $113,688, as long as it does not break the previous low of $111,858, the structure of “higher lows” in the upward trend still holds, and we can still expect a rise; if $111,858 is lost (a lower low appears), the upward trend is broken, and we need to be cautious of reversal risks.

II. Key Level Trading Strategies

• Conditions for Going Long:

1. Breakout with volume above $116,631 (hourly close above) → chase long on the right side, stop loss on breakdown;

2. A false breakdown occurs at $115,954 and recovers → lightly try long, stop loss at the false breakdown low or $115,176; if not recovered, give up;

3. Stabilize above $116,971 → increase long positions, target $117,600 → $118,491; a breakout above the $118,000 round number needs to be confirmed with volume;

4. Conservative wait for a long position at $114,200, stop loss at $113,274 on breakdown (deep pullback for low buy, trend bottom line must not be broken).

• Conditions for Going Short:

1. Breakdown with volume below $116,421 → chase short on the right side; if unable to recover on the pullback, stop loss is needed, and volume confirmation is required for selling pressure;

2. A 2B false breakout occurs at $118,870 → lightly try short, stop loss at stabilization above $119,538;

3. 4-hour breakdown below $116,370 → increase short positions, targeting $115,533 → $114,329; this level must hold to avoid excessive worry.

III. Logic of Attack and Defense of Pressure and Support

• Upper pressure ladder: $116,971 (hourly breakout confirmation line) → $117,600 (short-term resistance) → $118,491 (near previous high), each level needs volume verification of breakout validity;

• Lower support bottom line: $116,322 (box midline) → $115,469 (pullback buffer) → $114,249 (deep pullback support); the 4-hour level of $116,370 is a pullback warning line; breaking this will amplify adjustment space.