Today is another day to watch Ethereum's performance... It's indeed too erratic, if I, as a trader who plays with fluctuations, were to trade Ethereum lately, I would definitely incur heavy losses.. This is probably the reason why I don't trade Ethereum.. The movements are too irregular..
Back to Bitcoin... Let's first review yesterday.. The movements were orderly, and even if Ethereum pushed to break the high again at night, Bitcoin reached the pressure level of 117,600 to 118,000 and couldn't go higher... The short position mentioned yesterday also hit.. But I didn't take the full 1000 points, still fearing that Ethereum's bullish sentiment would dominate at midnight, so I took 500 points from this short and withdrew..
Looking at the current market, actually, yesterday cleared the short liquidity around 118,000 for the last three days, combined with the pending orders below, and the potential market manipulation due to low liquidity over the weekend.. It feels like the plan is to gradually shake down to take the long liquidity at 115,800... So I didn't follow the guide of the contract orders from yesterday to place a long order at 116,300..
However, the wave at 10 AM this morning was really inexplicable.. It can only be understood as funds coming out to start playing Bitcoin after Ethereum broke its previous high?
The only observation I have is that while the price was aggressively surging from 116,500, the spot premium has been continuously decreasing.. This is a trading strategy learned from the artist regarding spot premium... When the price rises but the spot premium falls, it indicates that the contract market is pushing up.. The target is to clear the shorts.. I checked the short liquidity over the past 3 days and a week, which is around 118,500 to 119,000.. At the same time, 119,000 has a breaker block + previous high + order pressure level.. So I placed orders at 118,800 and 118,900.. In the end, I missed by a few points and had to chase the order.. Just now, I exited at 117,700 for 800 points...
Next, let's see the follow-up. First, looking at the current orders, there is a large order at 117,000 in the spot market.. However, I'm not very sure about this order; previously, this order was placed as a sell order at 118,400, but after the price went up, it was withdrawn.. So I'm not sure if this order at 117,000 will be withdrawn.. Above the spot, there is still a small sell order at 119,000.. However, today, the liquidity at 118,700 has already been cleared.. Further up, it's uncertain if the pressure level here is enough.. (It's already been tested once)
The pending contracts are still hanging at 116,300 to 115,800. In fact, this wave has also not been filled...
Lastly, let's talk about today's thoughts.. Today is the weekend and there are many things to do. Actually, the short position has already been completed... There are not too many short-term guidance available.. The short-term liquidity has been cleared, and the upper pressure levels are one after another, making it hard to determine.. Further up, there is more than a month of accumulated liquidity above 120,000... Unless there is a large wave of funds converting from Ethereum to Bitcoin.. So today, I won't be taking any short positions.
The long orders are still considering the range of 115,800 to 116,200.. It might not reach, but you know how it is at midnight on Sunday, the CME opening can easily cause all sorts of events.. If it breaks 115,000, it might run away...