Author: Hotcoin Research
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $3.86 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60%, or $2.3 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $269.8 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 1.04%, of which USDT accounts for 61.21%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most are rising with a few declining, including: MNT with a 7-day increase of 41.91%, PENDLE with a 7-day increase of 31.81%, PUMP with a 7-day increase of 29.16%, MYX with a 7-day increase of 1420.3%, and TOSHI with a 7-day increase of 22.52%.
This week, net inflows for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs: $253.6 million; net inflows for U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs: $326.4 million.
Market Predictions (August 11 - August 15):
This week, stablecoins continued to increase issuance, with U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs seeing continued net inflows. Ethereum broke through $4,000 this week, showing strong performance. The RSI index is at 62.75, indicating overbought conditions. The Fear and Greed Index is at 68 (higher than last week).
BTC: Likely to oscillate in the range of $114,500-$118,500, with the breakout direction depending on U.S. CPI data. If the data supports rate cut expectations, it may test $120,000; if the data is strong, it may pull back to the $112,500 support;
ETH: Performance may continue to outpace BTC, with a main volatility range of $3,750-$4,200. Any positive signals from the SEC regarding spot ETFs could drive ETH to continue breaking through.
Short-term investors: can adopt a range trading strategy, buying near support levels and taking partial profits near resistance levels.
Medium to long-term investors: should take advantage of possible pullback opportunities to build positions gradually, focusing on strong support areas around $112,500 for BTC and $3,300 for ETH.
Understand the Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
1. On August 6, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued a statement regarding liquidity staking activities, stating that liquidity staking activities are not considered securities;
2. On August 6, Base released a downtime incident report, stating that there was a 33-minute interruption in block generation on August 5 due to switching to a backup sorter that was not correctly configured to handle transactions;
3. On August 5, JD.com’s JD Coin Chain stated it has noticed false reports and rumors in the market, and JD Coin Chain responds that it is preparing to apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong;
4. On August 7, according to Etherscan data, the number of transactions on the Ethereum network rose to 1.87 million yesterday, nearing the historical high record of 1.96 million set on January 14, 2024;
5. On August 6, Cboe BZX, a subsidiary of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), submitted a 19b-4 filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, requesting permission for VanEck's Ethereum ETF to stake ETH through trusted staking providers to earn rewards as income;
6. On August 6, Cboe BZX, a subsidiary of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), submitted a 19b-4 filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, requesting permission for VanEck's Ethereum ETF to stake ETH through trusted staking providers to earn rewards as income. The SEC officially ended its four-year legal battle with Ripple, maintaining the first-instance ruling;
7. On August 8, Trump announced the nomination of 'crypto-friendly' official Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board.
Macroeconomics
1. On August 6, the U.S. White House stated that Trump has signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. Following the new tariffs imposed by Trump on India, oil prices rose sharply, hitting a daily high;
2. On August 7, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the base rate from 4.25% to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in this cycle, in line with market expectations;
3. On August 7, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 2 was 226,000, expected to be 221,000;
4. On August 8, according to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 92.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 7.3%.
ETF
According to statistics, between August 4 and August 8, net inflows for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs were $253.6 million; as of August 8, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.662 billion, currently holding $21.058 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $85.956 billion. The total market value of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $152.024 billion.
Net inflows for U.S. Ethereum spot ETF: $326.4 million.
Foresee the Future
Event Preview
1. Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held from August 21 to 22 in Bali, Indonesia;
2. WebX Asia 2025 will be held from August 25 to 26 in Tokyo, Japan;
3. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held from August 28 to 29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre.
Important Events
1. On August 12 at 12:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision;
2. On August 12 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the July unadjusted CPI (annual rate);
3. On August 14 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the previous week (in thousands) (as of 08/09).
Token Unlocking
1. Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on August 12, valued at $53.04 million, accounting for 2.2% of the circulating supply;
2. Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on August 15, valued at approximately $39.14 million, accounting for 0.33% of the circulating supply;
3. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 126 million tokens on August 15, valued at $16.18 million, accounting for 5.98% of the circulating supply;
4. Sei (SEI) will unlock 5.556 million tokens on August 15, valued at approximately $17.12 million, accounting for 1.21% of the circulating supply;
5. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 9.263 million tokens on August 16, valued at approximately $39.11 million, accounting for 2.04% of the circulating supply.
