Daily Share

Currently, Ethereum has successfully broken through 4107, which basically validates our previous expectations that Ethereum will undergo an independent market. Since August 2, I have repeatedly emphasized that Ethereum will break 4,000 again, and even on August 5, the community already believed that Ethereum might start an independent market, for which I even drew a chart:

When I drew this chart in the internal group, the price was only 3705. From the chart, everyone should also be able to see that I tend to believe that Ethereum will surge above 5,000, and then undergo a daily level pullback, while positions at 8,000 or even higher should be expected towards the end of the year.

Important Notice: Starting from August 16, 2025, our analysis articles will no longer provide short-term points; the articles will only provide the structural and directional trends for the short term, while long-term points will still be provided. If anyone wants to know about the short-term points and real-time market analysis from our articles, please privately message me to join the internal member group.

Short-term BTC

Due to rapid market changes in the short term, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, and this information is merely for reference.

1H：

Bitcoin reached a high of 117944 today, and it is currently uncertain whether this 1-hour level rebound has ended. This rebound is still a bit far from our expected range of around 120,000. Let's observe and see if it can manage to approach 120,000 tonight or by tomorrow morning. It is expected that there may be a 1-hour level pullback on Sunday or Monday, with attention on the 115,000 level. After that, it should accelerate to break above 120,000 next week.

Currently for Bitcoin, I personally still believe that the probability of reaching a new high of 126,000 is quite large.

15M：

15-Minute Level: If it falls below 116,600 in the short term, it is inclined to undergo a 1-hour level pullback, making three internal movements, and then start the fifth 1-hour level rise to break 120,000.

I believe many people might be thinking that since Bitcoin is performing so weakly, it is probably waiting for Ethereum. Once Ethereum surges, Bitcoin and Ethereum will start a significant drop together. I do not think so; I tend to believe that Bitcoin will continue to set a historical new high, while Ethereum still has a way to go to break the historical high.

ETH

For Ethereum, this 1-hour level rise may continue upwards, followed by a possible 1-hour level pullback to around 4,000, and then continue to rise to see around 4,800.

Going long on Ethereum recently has been very enjoyable; as long as there is a 15-minute level pullback, one can consider entering a long position.

Ethereum's momentum will not stagnate at the 4,000s; breaking through the new high is just the beginning. According to institutional layouts, Ethereum's target is around 12,000. My personal view is that the current 4-hour level rise that started from 2111 is expected to reach around 5,000 to 5,600, after which there will be about a week of 4-hour level pullback. The 4-hour pullback is estimated to still be above 4,100, and then it will continue to rise to around 7,000, which should be about the end of the overall daily level rise. (Specific points will be adjusted based on market changes; this is a preliminary view.)

Many people underestimate the institutional layout of Ethereum. We can think about when institutions laid out Bitcoin: in October 2023, when the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved, institutions bought a lot in batches at 35,000, 40,000, and 50,000. Taking the institution's cost of 50,000 as an example, reaching 150,000 would be almost three times. Now, for Ethereum this year, institutions are densely laid out when the price was around 3,000 and 3,500. If we calculate at an average price of 3,300, a subsequent threefold increase could see Ethereum reach 9,900 USD. Since Ethereum's market cap is much smaller than Bitcoin's, the probability of a fourfold increase is still quite high, so Ethereum could reach 13,200 USD.

Of course, if it can reach such a high position afterwards, I believe it should wait until February 2026.

Trend Direction

Weekly Level: Direction upwards, currently in a new weekly level rise, with the overall target looking above 150,000.

Daily Level: Direction upwards, currently experiencing a daily rebound, with the daily upward target around 120,000 to 130,000.

4-Hour Level: Direction upwards, currently in a 4-hour level rise, with the first target at 120,000, breaking through to reach a new historical high.

1-Hour Level: Direction downwards, waiting for a 1-hour level pullback in Bitcoin, after which it will continue to rise.

15-Minute Level: Direction downwards; if it falls below 116,600 again, it is believed to undergo a 1-hour level decrease.