$BTC consolidates near 117k – Will bulls take the lead or bears push back?

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1. Yesterday’s Recap – August 8, 2025

1H timeframe:

Yesterday, $BTC traded in a narrow range between $116,000 – $117,000, showing a clear consolidation phase after a previous breakout. RSI held close to the neutral level of ~50, and MACD provided no clear directional signal. Trading volume was declining, indicating investor caution before the next move.

4H timeframe:

On the 4-hour chart, $BTC held above the key support at $115,800 (the upper boundary of the previously broken rising wedge). RSI climbed towards 60, and MACD signaled a bullish crossover. Importantly, volume in this timeframe was notably higher during the breakout, confirming strong buying pressure.

Fibonacci levels (112,500 → 117,600 USD):

  • 38.2% – $115,600 (key support)

  • 50% – $115,050 (equilibrium level)

  • 61.8% – $114,500 (critical defense zone for bulls)

  • 1.618 extension – $120,500 (potential breakout target)

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2. Current Market Situation – August 9, 2025

1H timeframe:

The current $BTC price is around $117,580, marking a slight increase from yesterday’s close. RSI has risen to ~55, indicating moderate buying strength. MACD remains positive but without a strong acceleration in the trend. Hourly trading volume remains moderate, suggesting the market is waiting for a catalyst to break the consolidation.

4H timeframe:

On the 4-hour chart, BTC continues to hold above $115,600, confirming that this crucial support is being defended. RSI is climbing towards 64, and MACD remains in bullish territory. Volume in this timeframe is slightly lower than during the breakout, which could indicate a pause before the next significant move

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3. Market Outlook

  • Bullish scenario: If BTC stays above $115,600 and breaks above $117,600 with rising volume, there is a strong chance of a move towards $120,500 (1.618 Fibonacci extension).

  • Bearish scenario: A drop below $115,600 with increased selling volume could trigger a correction towards $114,500 or even $112,500.

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4. LONG Setup

  • Entry: $117,600

  • Stop Loss: $116,600

  • TP1: $118,500 (local resistance)

  • TP2: $120,000 (psychological level)

  • TP3: $120,500 (Fibonacci 1.618)

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5. SHORT Setup

  • Entry: < $115,600

  • Stop Loss: $117,000

  • TP1: $115,050 (Fibonacci 50%)

  • TP2: $114,500 (Fibonacci 61.8%)

  • TP3: $112,500 (previous local low)

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