$BTC pressing 118.6k — Is 120k in sight or will the range reset?
1) Yesterday’s Recap – August 9, 2025
Yesterday, $BTC maintained a bullish bias after the previous breakout, but spent most of the day moving sideways under local resistance levels. On the 1H chart, momentum was moderate (RSI near mid-levels, MACD positive but flat), reflecting caution before the next move. On the 4H chart, the price held above the 115.8k area (the previous breakout from a wedge), while the prior volume spike during the breakout was replaced by declining activity — a typical “coil-up” phase before another push.
Fibonacci (swing: 112,500 → 117,600):
38.2% – 115,652
50% – 115,050
61.8% – 114,448
1.618 extension – 120,752
Indicators (09.08 – takeaway): RSI on both 1H and 4H in a neutral-to-bullish range; MACD on 4H after a bullish crossover; volume decreasing after the breakout → consolidation with a bullish bias.
2) Current Market Situation – August 10, 2025
This morning, $BTC is testing the upper boundary of the daily range. Shorter timeframes show an attempt to break out, but the market still awaits a clear volume-driven impulse.
1H – “right now” picture:
Price: 118,182; daily high 118,655 / low 116,468.
RSI: mid-50s → slight buyer advantage.
MACD: positive but without strong acceleration.
Volume: moderate – no breakout confirmation yet, susceptible to false moves.
4H – trend and context:
Holding above 115.6k preserves the bullish market structure.
RSI: low-60s → strength still with the bulls.
MACD: in positive territory, trend remains upward.
Volume: lower than at breakout, typical pause before a directional move.
Fibonacci (today’s swing: 116,468 → 118,655):
38.2% – 117,820
50% – 117,562
61.8% – 117,303
1.618 extension – ≈120,010 (practically the 120k zone)
3) Outlook and Scenarios
Bullish (continuation): Holding above 117.8k and breaking 118,655 with rising volume opens the path towards 119.5k → 120.0k (1.618).
Bearish (range reset): Breaking below 117.3k (61.8% retracement of today’s swing) with clear selling pressure increases the risk of testing 117.0k–116.5k (lower boundary of today’s range).
4) LONG Setup (trend-follow)
Entry: after 1H close > 118,655 (new intraday high)
Stop-loss: 117,560 (50% retracement of today’s swing)
TP1: 119,500 (local impulse target)
TP2: 120,000 (psychological level + 1.618 ≈ 120.01k)
TP3: 120,750 (1.618 extension from larger swing 112.5k→117.6k)
Rationale: Enter “with strength” and place SL under mid-swing to limit false breakout risk; TP laddered around key zones.
5) SHORT Setup (mean-reversion)
Entry: after breaking 117,300 (61.8% of today’s swing) and closing 1H below 117.3k
Stop-loss: 117,820 (38.2% retracement / return to supply)
TP1: 117,000 (intraday pivot)
TP2: 116,500 (lower edge of daily range)
TP3: 115,650 (38.2% from the larger swing – bulls’ last defense)
Rationale: Countertrend trade aiming for a move back into the range, only with candle confirmation and a rise in sell volume.
