Analysis of Long and Short Game After Bitcoin Triangle Breakout and Daily Strong Signal

1. Key Verification of Hourly Triangle Breakout: Standing Firm or Denying Direction

The upper boundary of the hourly triangle has just shown a 'spike breakout', the current core issue is whether it can stand firm at the upper boundary:

• If it stands firm, it will challenge $118,855; if this level further breaks and stands firm, it will directly target the $120,000 integer level;

• If a '2B false breakout' occurs (falling back into the triangle after breaking out), it will return to the $117,102-$116,027 box range and we will need to wait for a new direction choice.

The essence of the market is 'take one step and see one step', excessive prediction (if it rises, look at $130,000-$150,000; if it falls, look at $70,000-$80,000) is often emotional speculation. In practical operations, we should abandon 'fortune-telling predictions' and take market signals as the only criterion — just like some behaviors in the market that 'boast about accurate predictions after the fact', it is far more prudent to 'follow signals low-key and trade with caution'.

2. Key Point Trading Strategies

• Conditions for Going Long:

1. Breakout with Volume above $117,338 → chase long on the right side; volume is the core verification of breakout effectiveness;

2. Stand firm at $117,518 → increase long positions, with targets sequentially at $118,837 → $119,817 → $120,307 (staggered take profits, not blindly looking far);

3. Holding above $116,954 on the 4-hour level → effective support, bull trend continues, can try long on dips with light positions.

• Conditions for Going Short:

1. Break down with volume below $116,859 → chase short on the right side; if the pullback cannot recover, then stop loss (needs volume confirmation of selling pressure);

2. Break below $116,954 on the 4-hour level → looking down at $116,292 → $115,690; if this level fails, short-term corrections will deepen.

3. Strong Signals at Daily Level: EMA20 and MACD Resonance Bullish

• The strength and weakness watershed of the EMA20 daily moving average: if the daily line stands back above the EMA20 moving average, it marks the beginning of strengthening at the daily level. As long as the pullback does not break below this moving average, the strong pattern will continue, and it may even trigger a daily rebound.

• Bullish control above the MACD zero line: the daily MACD turning upward and returning above the zero line indicates that bulls are dominating the market; the operational logic should primarily focus on buying on pullbacks, with selling as a supplement, avoiding counter-trend trades.

Summary: Signals are King, Discipline First

The short-term direction of Bitcoin depends on whether it can stand firm at the upper boundary of the triangle, while the medium-term strength is judged by the defense of the daily EMA20 moving average. Core operation: follow up with long positions relying on the breakout above $117,338, closely monitor $118,855.