The Federal Reserve's counterattack has begun—market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have dropped from 90% to 89%. Although it's only a decline of '1%', it is significant; behind this '1%' is a battle of experts.

This is because Trump has just nominated Milan to the Federal Reserve Board (who will almost certainly support a rate cut), exerting more control over the Federal Reserve, yet the expectations for a rate cut have 'not risen but fallen'. Furthermore, the dollar's 'counter-trend rise' yesterday indicates that the market does not believe Milan will be able to stand firm at the Federal Reserve.

Last night, the Federal Reserve arranged for a less frequently seen official—St. Louis Fed President Bullard—to deliver a speech (he has voting rights this year, which is key), becoming the focus of traders' attention.

Bullard stated his support for the decision to maintain interest rates last week. The Federal Reserve still falls short of achieving its inflation target, and the current economic situation indicates that we have not yet achieved the inflation target. There is no gap in our employment target; the labor market is close to full employment.

His viewpoint is straightforward: the labor market is worry-free, but the inflation target has not yet been achieved (implying that the conditions for a rate cut have not been met). Although his speech seems somewhat academic, the market felt as if it had been slapped. As the last Federal Reserve official to speak this week, his remarks serve as the Federal Reserve's final signal.

Goldman's Financial Conditions Index (FCI) shows that the U.S. financial environment is 'unprecedentedly loose'—even looser than what the Federal Reserve itself believes. This suggests that there will be another showdown between the Federal Reserve, the market, and Trump. $BTC $XRP $SOL #美国加征关税