Crenshaw’s vote against crypto ETFs caused a temporary drop in XRP approval odds, but Bloomberg analysts remain confident in a positive outcome.
Bloomberg’s 95% approval forecast for XRP ETFs stands, with analysts dismissing the impact of Crenshaw’s lone opposition vote.
Crenshaw's criticism of Ripple’s settlement with the SEC emphasizes her strong anti-crypto stance, yet her influence on decisions remains limited.
The odds of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) recently saw a sharp decline. The chances dropped to 66%, marking the lowest point since January. This shift followed news that SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw, a vocal critic of crypto, voted against 13 initiatives related to crypto ETFs on July 29. However, Bloomberg analysts remain confident in the approval process, maintaining their forecast at 95%.
Crenshaw's lone opposition to the crypto ETF initiatives raised concerns among some investors, leading to the drop in approval odds on the Polymarket platform. Despite her consistent rejection of crypto-based ETFs, including spot Bitcoin ETFs, her stance is seen as unlikely to influence the SEC’s decision-making process. Crenshaw has been the only commissioner to vote against all crypto-related ETF proposals, making her opposition appear less impactful.
Bloomberg Analysts Hold Firm on XRP ETF Approval
Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, dismissed the overreaction seen on the Polymarket. He argued that Crenshaw’s dissent carries little weight in the broader approval process, given her position as a lone anti-crypto commissioner. Balchunas maintains that the SEC’s approval odds for an XRP ETF are still high, with the agency likely to approve it despite Crenshaw's vote.
https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1953478933392789745
Crenshaw’s opposition extends beyond ETF proposals. She also criticized the SEC's decision to settle with Ripple, suggesting the agency was hesitant about winning its appeal against the company. Despite her views, the judge rejected the settlement, leading Ripple to drop its cross-appeal against the SEC. The agency has yet to provide its response, and the SEC’s overall stance remains uncertain, especially with Crenshaw’s dissenting position.
Despite the recent dip in the XRP ETF approval odds, experts like Balchunas from Bloomberg maintain their optimistic outlook. The consistent votes in favor of crypto initiatives from other SEC commissioners, coupled with Crenshaw’s lone opposition, suggest the approval odds for an XRP ETF remain favorable.
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