Image source: Kanchanara on Unsplash.
Every wave of crypto bull markets brings a habitual expectation of that familiar script: Bitcoin leads the way, ETH follows, and then altcoins take off as if 'everything rises' is the standard for a bull market. But this time, despite BTC reaching new highs, the ETF being officially approved, and market funds continuously entering, we hardly see that kind of widespread blooming scene. Many people even doubt, 'Is this really a bull market?'
But if we step out of emotional viewpoints and look at this bull market from the perspective of capital market logic and structural changes, it is not that the bull market is not coming, but rather that the way it comes has changed.
One, ETF funds are focused, altcoins struggle to share the pie.
The approval of the BTC ETF is undoubtedly the catalyst for this market wave. However, what the ETF brings is a large amount of passive capital from institutions, which tends to seek safe, stable, and predictable assets, naturally favoring BTC over high-risk, low-fundamental small-cap altcoins.
As a result, a large amount of capital is concentrated in mainstream assets, which compresses the performance space for small and medium-sized coins. This has made many projects that previously doubled due to hype appear particularly quiet in this wave of the market.
Two, with the total market capitalization increasing, volatility naturally tends to decrease.
Currently, the overall market capitalization of the crypto market is close to 3 trillion dollars, no longer comparable to the past hundreds of billions or thousands of billions era. The larger the asset size, the smaller the volatility is the market norm, which also means that the amount of capital needed to double the overall market far exceeds that of the past.
We can refer to the structure of mature markets—like the U.S. stock market—to see the future direction of crypto:
• The market capitalization of the top 1,000 U.S. companies accounts for as much as 93.6%.
• The trading volume of the last 3,000 companies accounts for less than 1%.
• The index's increase is mainly contributed by a few companies.
The crypto market is gradually entering this 'Matthew Effect'-dominated stage—big gets bigger, and the weak are eliminated.
Three, narrative explosion, funds cannot be evenly distributed.
This bull market is not without narrative; rather, the narratives are flourishing, but funds cannot be evenly distributed.
From AI, Restaking, modularization, RWA, to SocialFi, GameFi, Bitcoin L2, Sol ecosystem, every track is competing for attention and liquidity.
But in a situation of limited capital and cautious markets, only a very few narratives can attract a large focus—those that can rise, rise a lot, while those not mentioned have almost no chance.
This is not the failure of the bull market, but a manifestation of market maturity.
Four, a logical shift in investment strategies: selecting coins is more important than timing.
The past logic for mid-to-long-term investments in the crypto space was: 'Close your eyes and buy mainstream, enter at the bottom, and you will double when the bull market arrives.'
However, nowadays, the market no longer provides such generous time and space. Just having a bull market background is not enough; you also need to choose the right coins, the right teams, and the right narratives.
Projects that possess the following characteristics are more likely to stand out in this 'uneven rise' environment:
1. Clear narratives: can capture current trends (such as AI, RWA, Restaking).
2. Fundamental efforts: frequent technology and product iterations, high activity.
3. Capital endorsement: supported by well-known VC, market resources, or market value management teams.
4. Reasonable token design: healthy release mechanisms, teams do not dump their tokens.
Only such coins can 'continuously attract capital attention' in a bull market, rather than becoming a remnant of the previous cycle.
Five, this is not a lack of a bull market, but an elite bull market.
Ultimately, this wave of market actually only belongs to a few selected projects.
Our past assumptions about the 'bull market'—universal rise, all coins flying together—may become history.
Future bull markets will increasingly resemble the U.S. stock market: 'Only specific narratives and leading assets can ride the wind and waves, while the rest are just running alongside or standing still.'
Conclusion: Embrace the new normal, embrace precise investments.
As the structure of the coin market is aligning more with traditional financial markets, our investment strategies should also upgrade.
No longer just betting on whether an overall bull market is coming, but starting to select targets as precisely as picking stocks.
The future is not 'everything rises,' but rather an elite bull market where 'the strong get stronger.'
Whether you can make money does not depend on whether the market is hot, but rather on whether you bet on the right flower that will grow into a big tree.
