"3900 is just a decoy, 3970 is the real battlefield for the main force! If it can violently break through 3970 tonight, the bears are likely to collapse, charging straight towards 4000; but the whale's buy orders at high levels might hide the potential for a market crash. Conversely, if it can't hold 3880, it may rapidly drop toward the liquidation zone at 3860! The longer it consolidates now, the more violent the storm will be!"
Three crucial life-and-death lines on the technical front, keep a close watch!
1. The 3970 level is considered the 'line of life and death' for bulls and bears
Today, the three attempts to break 3970.60 were precisely pushed back, with over 57.8K ETH stacked at this position, which is still a strong resistance area of the weekly downtrend line.
My judgment: If the night trading volume suddenly expands to the $2 billion level (50% more than now), it may violently break through, but beware of false breakouts — the main force loves to use 'fishing orders' to lure in long positions, trapping them once they jump in.
2. The 3900 level has become the frontline for close combat between bulls and bears
Currently, the 1-hour K-line is consolidating with reduced volume between 3905.71-3905.70, fluctuating only 20 points, and the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to just 0.5% — this extreme contraction will definitely lead to a one-sided market tonight!
However, the indicators are 'betraying': the order ratio is +0.19%, indicating that bullish ammunition is running low; the MACD's underwater golden cross looks like an opportunity, but in reality, it could be a 'death smile', with a sudden rise signaling a short attack.
3. 3860 is the last 'life-and-death line'
On the daily chart, 3880.94-3860.94 is a dense support area, this is the last line of defense. Once it breaks down with volume, it could trigger a cascading liquidation waterfall down to 3750-3700 — the large buy order at 3700 looks like support, but it might actually signal that the main force is planning to buy the dip.
The news contains a deadly catalyst
Good news revealed: BlackRock's final revision of the ETH spot ETF was submitted this morning (the market is hiding expectations), but the probability of the SEC 'turning dovish' has risen to 70%, don’t have too much hope;
Negative hidden danger: Before the release of U.S. CPI data, rumors of 'data leaks' suddenly emerged, hedge funds are frantically hoarding bearish ETH options, and the fear index has already surged;
On-chain activity: A mysterious address deposited 80,000 ETH (worth $310 million) to Binance 2 hours ago, the fuse for a market crash may have already been lit.
Tonight's strategy requires a choice between two options!
Aggressive long: You can chase long positions if it stabilizes above 3930, targeting 3965—4000.65, with a stop loss set at 3900;
Decisive short: If 3880 is effectively broken, directly pursue short positions, targeting 3860, with a stop loss if it rebounds to 3900;
Consolidation warning: If it is still fluctuating around 3905 within 20 points by early morning, immediately close positions — a major change is imminent, don’t gamble on the direction.
Final bloody reminder: There are a large number of iceberg orders buried at the 4000 level, even if it breaks through, it could be a 'whale tail market', with extremely high risks. It is recommended to take profit in batches above 3980, greedy people often meet the worst fate!
