First, look at the hourly chart — the triangle drawn before has indeed broken, but look at the volume indicated by the white arrow: it's a lie to say there's no volume, but that little volume is not significant; this kind of 'no-volume breakout' cannot support a sustained rise.
Now ETH wants to rise, it must first pass the barrier of $4701 (the position circled in yellow in the chart). This is a small high point after the previous drop; if it can't even break a small high point, how can it continue to rise? It can’t rely on 'wishful thinking' to go up, right?
Let’s be realistic, ETH rising from $3500 to $4800, a pullback of $500-600 is normal. Just like drinking Red Bull, even if it’s energizing, there comes a time when you run out of energy; you can’t rely on one can of Red Bull to last a month, right? Looking at the current trend, tonight it’s highly likely to 'draw a door' — oscillating back and forth to wash out positions, don’t expect it to go smoothly.
(A side note: the brain rusts when not used for a long time; I advise those who copy my articles and steal my images not to just rely on copy-paste and AI conversion, that's too low-level. I didn’t take it seriously before, but if it continues, I won’t be so polite — digressing, back to the market.)
Key operating line tonight: keep a close eye on volume and two core price levels.
Short-term bullish and bearish signals:
Breakout with volume at $4650, can chase long on the right side, with a target initially at $4702-4738; but if $4702 cannot break, don't fantasize about how far it can rise, take profits in time.
Breakdown with volume below $4621, directly chase short on the right side, with initial support at $4605.
4-hour level life and death line:
$4605 is a key support, if it breaks and cannot quickly recover, then the market will be in danger, and it will further test $4562-4502.
If you want to perform a 'double bottom test', $4447 (position of the yellow arrow) absolutely cannot break; if it breaks, the whole plan fails, and previous support is all in vain.
Looking at the details of the 4-hour chart: the high doji at the white arrow must break through the corresponding $4652 to rise; and from last night's drop until now, although there have been 5 consecutive bullish candles, the volume is decreasing with each one — this is a typical 'low-volume rise', with no funds following in, how long can the upward momentum last?
Remember: for a real rise, there must be an increase in volume, just like when it dropped yesterday, only with trading volume can it drop deeply, and only with volume can the price be pushed higher.
Lastly, a reminder: the US retail data will be released at 8:30 PM tonight, and this data will bring considerable volatility to the market. Personally, I hope ETH can drop into a 'big pit' to buy back the spot I sold earlier.
Meeting adjourned, students watching the market pay attention to volume changes, set stop losses, and don’t hold on stubbornly. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
