How to seize the last window of NOT 'violent rebound'? Is it a false breakout above 0.00218 or a real breakthrough?
Overview in one sentence: NOT rebounded violently by 6.4% after hitting a new yearly low, but the contract holdings dropped for three consecutive days by 3.4%, with a huge selling wall hanging at 0.00311, resembling a 'pump and dump' script — only the last wave of inertia remains for short-term, and subsequently it is highly likely to return to the value center at 0.00208.
Key interval structure
• Value anchor (POC): 0.0020756, with a transaction volume of 8.82B NOT over the past two weeks, accounting for 4.6% of the total, serving as a lifeline for bulls.
• High volume node (HVN): 0.00198~0.00202, 0.00208~0.00209, both dips were quickly reclaimed, forming a daily bull buffer zone.
• Low volume node (LVN): 0.00250~0.00253, near the short position area, if a breakout occurs with volume, it can be seen as a true breakout signal.
• 70% volume coverage: 0.001966~0.002357, current price at 0.002184 at the upper edge of the range, RSI 80+, Bollinger Bands at 95% percentile, short-term overbought.
• Momentum verification: Up Volume above POC is 50.2%, not forming an absolute advantage; Up Volume near 0.00218 is only 53.8%, beware of false breakouts.
Market cycle judgment
Funding rate +0.005% slight bullish payment, contract OI net outflow of 5% over 7 days, yet the price rose by 9.3%, a typical 'short squeeze' rebound, still in the mid-cycle of a bear market rebound, not a trend reversal.
Short-term trading strategies
• Aggressive: Light short position near current price of 0.00218, stop loss at 0.002207 (upper LVN + 0.5×ATR 0.000027), first target at 0.00208 (POC), risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.7.
• Moderate: Wait for a pullback to 0.00208~0.00209 HVN and Up Volume > 60% to go long, stop loss at 0.00205, target at 0.00218, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.0.
• Conservative: Pursue long after a breakout of 0.00250 LVN with volume (15-minute volume > average 1.5 times), stop loss at 0.00247, target at 0.00265, risk-reward ratio ≈ 5.0.
Risk warning: If the daily closing price falls below 0.00196, the rebound structure is broken, and all long positions should exit immediately.
LP market-making range
It is recommended to provide bilateral liquidity in the range of 0.00205~0.00225, with a width of about 9.7%, covering POC and upper HVN; funding rate is slightly bullish, suitable for neutral market-making to earn transaction fees and funding fees.
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