Straight to the conclusion: This round of the crypto bull market will likely end by the end of this year! If you don’t see the rhythm clearly now, you might end up crying over losses by year-end~
Core reason: US inflation 'has reignited', we can't expect interest rate cuts anymore
The most troublesome thing since Trump took office has arrived — inflation has risen again! This directly leads to one result: it’s getting harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates; hoping to boost the market through liquidity in 2026? Almost impossible.
So the rhythm is likely to be like this:
Bitcoin hits the peak in October (estimated around 130,000)
Altcoins and ETH have 2 more months to perform; December is the final climax
After that, it's downhill; the host of the feast will wrap up
Don’t fantasize that 'the Federal Reserve will inject liquidity for employment'; historically, when the Federal Reserve listens to the president and hardens employment, it all backfires!
The truth of this bull market: Retail investors have long been 'played dumb'
Bitcoin rose from 15,000 to 120,000, looking like a major bull market, but most altcoins resemble a rebound after the 2021 crash, not a full bull market at all!
The real rhythm is 'institution-led':
The earliest smart money enters: when the Federal Reserve hints at interest rate cuts, Bitcoin rises from 15,000 to 40,000 (institutional cost around 50,000)
After ETF approval: Institutional funds push Bitcoin from 40,000 to 70,000 (this is the only stage where retail investors can make money)
After January 2025: Bitcoin reaches 100,000, institutions begin to secretly cash out, slowly dropping to 70,000 (huge trading volume, but retail investors feel nothing)
The worst is for altcoins: once institutions cash out, wild players fear being left holding the bag, leading to a direct crash at the end of November! After March 2024, there are almost no new investors stepping in, and the crypto space is already hollowed out, leaving only projects lying flat and trapped retail investors...
Last opportunity: Interest rate cuts in September may bring a wave!
Predicting the next script:
High probability of interest rate cuts in September, Bitcoin will slowly climb back to previous highs
In October, it will surge to 130,000, which is the 'cash-out point' for institutions (their average cost is 100,000, guaranteed profit)
11-12 Altcoins will bounce, but at most to half of the historical peak (don’t chase!)
But the liquidity will be poor at the end of the year, institutions, big players, and retail investors may all run together, and institutions may not be able to exit completely, leaving the rest to sell in the next round~
How long do we have to wait for the next bull market? The earliest in the first quarter of 2027
Don't rush to catch the bottom after this round ends; the next cycle won't start until at least the first quarter of 2027. The interim volatility period may last longer than expected; those who are stuck shouldn't rush to cut losses, and those who haven't entered shouldn't chase highs rashly.
What should we do now? 3 life-saving reminders
Don’t chase after Bitcoin peaks in October; institutions are waiting to cash out around 130,000
Altcoins must take profits before December; don’t believe in 'year-end rallies'
Those who are stuck shouldn’t rush to cut losses; wait for the next cycle (2027) to find an opportunity to exit.
A bull market is not an endless buffet; retail investors have already been 'played dumb' by institutions, and in the last 2 months, see the rhythm clearly, don’t be the one cleaning up after the party ends~
Do you think Bitcoin can touch 130,000? Let's discuss in the comments
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