Is ETH's fluctuation a washout or a prelude to a surge? The $4000 target is within reach! Institutions have three hidden tricks.
News:
Policy benefits: The US SEC has approved three ETH spot ETFs, with net inflows of $830 million in the first week; the EU MiCA regulation clearly categorizes ETH as a 'technology asset,' easing regulations and accelerating institutional capital entry.
Capital trends: Institutions like BlackRock need to purchase at least 15,000 ETH daily from the market through ETFs, directly reducing circulating supply and creating price support.
Technical side: $3890 is the lifeline, will $4000 definitely break?
Fluctuation washout hides secrets
Currently, ETH is repeatedly fluctuating in the $3968-$3890 range, seemingly directionless, but in fact, it hides the main force's conspiracy:
Support level 3816: Dense trading area in July, combined with the daily MA30 moving average; breaking it may trigger a wave of leveraged liquidations
Resistance level 4000: Psychological barrier + July peak selling pressure area; breaking it requires trading volume to increase more than three times
Volume signals reveal the truth
RSI overbought then retraced to 43.73, bearish divergence suggests short-term adjustment
Net outflow from exchanges of $122.7 million, selling pressure increases but long-term holding willingness is strong
Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the $3951-$3846 range, countdown to direction choice has begun
Personal opinion: $5000 is not a dream, but we need to overcome three hurdles
Short-term: Beware of the risk of losing $3890; if it breaks, it may test $3816. However, ETF funds approved by the SEC continue to flow in, forming a price safety cushion.
Medium-term: $4000 will definitely break! Institutional buying + technical upgrades create a double boost, with targets directly aiming at $4400-$4500 post-break.
Long-term: $5000 probability over 70%! But three conditions must be met:
ETH annual destruction volume continues to exceed issuance volume
Institutions increase monthly holdings by over 250,000 coins
DeFi TVL breaks $120 billion
Shenlong operation suggestion:
Spot players: Build positions in batches at $3776-$3850, stop loss if it falls below $3700
Contract players: Wait to chase long after breaking $4000, target $4400
Long-term holders: Ignore fluctuations, participate in staking with an annual yield of over 4%
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Do you think we can break 4000 points today? Feel free to leave your comments.
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