（1）After the interest rate cut expectations are fulfilled, retail FOMO sentiment will explode

  • Currently, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. Once this happens, expectations of liquidity easing will accelerate the inflow of funds into risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).

  • Historical pattern: After the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate cut in March 2020, Bitcoin rose 300% within six months. If an interest rate cut occurs in September 2025, retail investors' bottom-fishing sentiment may quickly heat up, leading to a short-term market overheating.

  • Main player goal: To complete the shakeout before the interest rate cut, preventing retail investors from 'buying high' after the cut, which would increase the cost for main players in subsequent rallies.

（2）Current market structure: Institutional holdings are stable, but leveraged traders still dominate.

Institutional funds (ETFs) continue to flow in (such as BlackRock's IBIT with a net inflow for 855 consecutive days), but short-term traders (such as in the futures market) still occupy a large proportion.

  • Recent liquidation data: In the past 24 hours, the market has seen $135 million in contracts liquidated due to extreme volatility, with shorts accounting for 76%, indicating that the main players are shaking out leveraged longs.

→ Conclusion: The main players want to clear high-leverage long positions before the interest rate cut to avoid retail investors 'blindly chasing' after the cut, leading to market chaos.

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