Introduction
On the evening of August 6, Jinse Finance's Twitter Space focused on the topic of "With the probability of interest rate cuts in September rising sharply, can Bitcoin break the August downturn curse and surpass 150,000?" Inviting multiple industry guests to delve into in-depth discussions around interest rate expectations, Bitcoin trends, global inflation risks, the direction of U.S. regulation, and stablecoin policies.
The guests participating in this discussion included: Kiki, head of the Twinkle market; senior trader Crypto Monkey; industry veteran Jessie; and Sicheng, a practitioner in digital banking.
Rising expectations for interest rate cuts: Did the market ferment in August ahead of time? Or is it waiting for confirmation?
According to the FedWatch tool, the market currently expects a 94.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Is such a high expectation already reflected in market sentiment ahead of time? This topic became the focus of the opening.
Monkey Brother stated that although the current data and institutional predictions for interest rate cuts are extremely high, "no one can determine whether there will be a rate cut in September." He believes there are still performance opportunities in August, "From a trading perspective, it is volatile, but it won't drop too much or rise too sharply."
He candidly stated: "If you are a contract trader in August, I think you need to be a bit cautious... If you are a secondary market trader, I do not recommend entering right now because the current altcoins have no hot spots, no trend, and insufficient liquidity."
Kiki believes from a data perspective: "Such high expectations for interest rate cuts may reduce market tension and provide some support for Bitcoin, but the market has already reflected part of this sentiment... Currently, trading volume continues to decline, and funds are relatively cautious."
She further pointed out: "The sideways movement in August is not very weak; it resembles a strong consolidation at a high level, and long-term holders have not significantly reduced their positions; essentially, they are waiting for a new catalyst, such as the interest rate cut being implemented or institutional ETF re-entry."
Bitcoin: Is the sideways movement a buildup of strength or weakness?
Currently, Bitcoin has been hovering below 120,000 for nearly a month, and the general market question is: Is this a buildup of strength before a rise, or a decline phase of the bull market?
Kiki is optimistic about this: "The current structure is healthy; unless it falls below the strong support of 110,000, I believe it is just a strong consolidation." She pointed out that on-chain data shows that "long-term holders have not significantly reduced their positions."
Monkey Brother stated that this cycle could be a "super cycle," predicting a long-term target price that could reach 200,000 dollars, but "it's not going to happen overnight, but rather a slow rise and grind." Regarding the timing for a breakthrough, "no one can be certain, but the medium to long-term upward trend is certain."
Are altcoins and memecoins still viable?
When discussing the current performance of the secondary market, Monkey Brother did not shy away from expressing disappointment. In contrast, Monkey Brother believes that memecoins have more short-term trading opportunities: "The memecoin sector is mainstream; if you follow the hot spots closely, there are opportunities... The larger the weight and angle, the higher the ceiling."
He also mentioned, "When Musk posts a tweet or a celebrity boosts it, the hype angle is high, and there are basically trading opportunities; the key is 'not to be greedy.'"
Increased U.S. tariffs amplify inflation pressure: Will U.S. capital flow into the crypto market?
When discussing whether the new round of U.S. tariff policies will raise global inflation, leading to capital flowing from dollar assets to the crypto market, the guests had differing opinions.
Jessie holds a negative stance: "The dollar is too strong; it can't easily flow out. The main storyline globally is still the confrontation between the U.S. and Chinese financial systems; other countries can't compete with the dollar."
"The yuan only accounts for 3% of global foreign exchange reserves; don't say anything about capital outflow; this is unrealistic. The dollar's hegemony is much stronger than we imagine."
Sicheng then gave a more moderate assessment: "There may indeed be some capital flowing into the crypto market, but it won't go directly into Bitcoin or Ethereum; rather, it will enter in layers, such as first allocating wealth management, stablecoins, and RWA-type assets."
He added: "Even if the interest rate cuts really materialize, it will take 12 months for capital to flow into the crypto market, and it will not immediately reflect in prices."
Is the SEC's shift in regulatory stance a turning point in market policy?
The recent launch of the SEC's 'Project Crypto' is seen as a turning point from repression to clear rules and support for innovation. Guests generally believe that this series of measures sends positive signals.
Sicheng provided a detailed overview of the policies: "From the rooftop laws, stablecoin legislation to Project Crypto, the underlying logic is to maintain dollar sovereignty and promote compliance in the payment system."
He pointed out: "In the future, the U.S. may allow taxes to be paid with stablecoins, which presents a huge space for fiscal gains. The SEC's shift is not accidental, but part of the entire national strategy."
Jessie also gave high praise for this: "Project Crypto is the biggest regulatory boon I've seen in many years... Stablecoins will reconstruct the global financial payment logic and are an extension of dollar hegemony."
She stated frankly, "Don't say attracting traditional institutions to enter; there are already a bunch of institutions in the market... In Hong Kong, almost every week, traditional financial institutions hold closed-door meetings on virtual assets."
Crypto payments, RWA, stablecoins: The next wave is brewing.
Sicheng specifically mentioned that the global application scenarios for stablecoins are rapidly expanding: "Its core advantages are settlement efficiency, low settlement costs, and smooth global payments... Compared to the SWIFT system, it has generational crushing advantages."
He also mentioned, "RWA projects are also an emerging direction, like the recent Ondo, Maple, etc. have gained attention... The core is connecting on-chain assets with off-chain credit."
Jessie believes that "stablecoins are not the 'scraps' we imagined, but a core pillar of future financial reform... Essentially, this is an extension of the U.S. government's push for dollar hegemony."
She encourages retail users to actively pay attention to these trends: "Don't think that stablecoins sound fancy and feel like you can't participate. There are definitely paths for ordinary users to enter this field, such as crypto payment cards and overseas U cards."
Conclusion: With macro benefits and narrative shifts, where is the crypto market heading?
Guests at this Space discussed the crypto market at a critical juncture from multiple angles including macroeconomics, market sentiment, regulatory shifts, and narrative changes. The discussion included rational macro judgments as well as genuine market experiences; a firm belief in Bitcoin's long-term value alongside acute insights into short-term speculative opportunities. Jinse Finance will continue to monitor the evolution of the crypto market during the interest rate cut cycle, providing readers with the most cutting-edge interpretations and voices as soon as possible.
Live replay link: https://x.com/i/spaces/1djxXVVVjkOGZ
Note: This article is based on the live discussion of guests and does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.
