Bitcoin has stirred up waves around $114,000 tonight, with a daily fluctuation of over 3%, coinciding with a heavy blow in US politics—Trump suddenly stated that Vice President Vance may become the next presidential candidate, even naming Secretary of State Rubio as 'fighting side by side'. This dual storm of the crypto market and US politics is drawing global investors into a game where the cards are not visible.
One, Trump's 'crypto chessboard': Will Vance take over, making policy continuity the biggest confidence booster?
Trump's move is certainly not just casual talk. In March 2025, he promoted the establishment of a 'US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve', formally incorporating BTC into the national asset basket; in July, he rapidly passed the (Genius Act), providing a compliance framework for stablecoins. It is clear to discerning eyes that cryptocurrencies have long become a core piece in his strategy to reshape dollar hegemony.
As Vance is a core aide of Trump, he has always been seen as a 'political mouthpiece'. (The Washington Post) revealed that he not only publicly supports listing Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve but also advocates using stablecoin technology to strengthen the global settlement position of the US dollar. If Vance really takes over, the US's crypto-friendly policies are likely to continue, and market confidence may be further boosted.
Two, Rubio's 'double-edged sword': The crypto variable under a hawkish background.
Although Rubio was given the dual role of 'Secretary of State + National Security Advisor' by Trump, his impact on the crypto market is a 'double-edged sword'.
On the one hand, his hardline stance on Russia indirectly highlights the 'safe-haven property' of Bitcoin—during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the negative correlation between BTC and gold, as well as the US dollar index, has significantly increased, making it a choice for hedging geopolitical risks;
On the other hand, his promotion of the (anti-central bank digital currency surveillance bill) has struck at central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), but it has also exposed the contradictory mindset of the US regarding crypto regulation: wanting to leverage its technological advantages while fearing loss of control.
What is even more concerning is that Rubio's team has been reported to be using private emails to handle crypto policy documents; if this 'amateur operation' continues, it may raise significant doubts about the stability of policies in the market.
Three, $114,000: A battleground of technical and fundamental forces.
The current fluctuations of BTC around $114,000 hide multiple games of chess:
Technical issues: The BOLL indicator shows that prices are forming a 'central oscillation' in this range, with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level ($114,500) being a tough nut to crack, repeatedly facing rejection.
Fundamentals cooling: The US July non-farm payroll data was unexpectedly weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, triggering a 'Sam's Rule' recession warning, causing funds to temporarily flee risk assets toward the dollar, dousing BTC with cold water.
Policy undercurrents: The Trump administration is brewing a new round of tariff negotiations with China; if negotiations break down, Bitcoin may once again be used as a tool to hedge against trade risks.
But in the long run, the narrative of 'digital gold' is still strengthening. CoinShares reports estimate that if BTC can capture 10% of the global gold market value, its price could exceed $300,000. The current MVRV Z-Score is far from its historical peak, indicating that there is still room for price increases.
Four, opportunities and pitfalls under the 'Trump Effect'.
Trump's crypto policy has triggered a chain reaction:
Institutions are rushing in: Companies like MicroStrategy are continuously increasing their BTC holdings, and 'coin-stock linkage' has become a new play.
Expansion of stablecoins: After the passage of the (Genius Act), the scale of USDT, USDC, and other stablecoins has increased by 40% within half a year, becoming the vanguard of dollar digitization.
Geopolitical competition is intensifying: The US is trying to use stablecoins to bind Saudi Arabia and European allies, secretly undermining the internationalization of the renminbi.
But the risks are also glaring: If the Democratic Party comes to power in 2026, cryptocurrency policy could take a 180-degree turn; the Bank for International Settlements is also warning about the 'money laundering loopholes' of stablecoins, and regulatory tightening could arrive at any moment.
Personal opinion:
BTC is currently stuck at the technical 'central oscillation zone' around $114,000, with the Fibonacci 61.8% resistance level being quite significant. In the short term, it is affected by non-farm payroll data and China-US tariff negotiations, with a rise in risk-averse sentiment; but in the long run, if it can secure 10% of the global gold market value, $300,000 is not just talk, and the current MVRV indicator is still relatively safe.
$114,000 is a cliff or a springboard? The answer may be hidden in the political and market struggle of August.
#Crypto market volatility #BTC
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