Nuclear-level personnel earthquake: Trump's 'rate cut enforcer' is about to take office.
Ultimate four-person shortlist revealed: Trump has personally confirmed that the candidates for Federal Reserve chairman are locked in four people—dove standard-bearer Hassett, hawkish spokesperson Warsh, current director Waller, and a mysterious dark horse (rumored to be former World Bank president Malpass). Treasury Secretary Basant suddenly dropped out, only because he wants more control over the Treasury's printing press!
Power vacuum blitz: Federal Reserve director Kugler resigned early on August 8, and Trump quickly announced the appointment of a successor this weekend! This person is very likely to be the 'designated candidate' for the next Federal Reserve chairman—by law, the chairman must be selected from the directors.
Political strangulation of Powell: Trump angrily criticizes the current chairman as 'too stupid and too politicized', ordering him to resign immediately! The White House also digs up old accusations against Powell for 'misusing $2.5 billion to renovate the Federal Reserve building', giving him a 7-day deadline to explain.
Nuclear explosion trigger in the crypto world: Is a 50 basis point rate cut in September a foregone conclusion?
Economic data collapse: July non-farm employment only increased by 73,000 (expected 110,000), with historical data slashed by 260,000! JPMorgan warns: the probability of a US recession has soared to 40%.
The market is making crazy bets: CME data shows the probability of a rate cut in September has skyrocketed to 89%, Citigroup/Goldman Sachs both warn: if August data collapses again, a direct cut of 50 basis points is possible!
Candidates declare easing: all four candidates support 'more than 25 basis points rate cut in September,' especially if Hassett takes charge, it will trigger 'Trump-style rate cuts'—politics supersedes independence, a major collapse of the dollar is imminent!
Crypto earthquake warning: three explosive profit strategies.
Doves in power = rocket fuel:
History script repeats! In April, when rumors of “Tiffany Fong replacing Powell” surfaced, Bitcoin surged 2.48% in 15 minutes, and exchange trading volume skyrocketed by 45%! If Hassett is elected, ETH/BTC may spike 10% in a single day.
Buying the dip with leveraged tokens: low interest rates are fueling a junk bond frenzy, high-beta coins (SOL, DOGE, MEME) will become the biggest winners!
Hawkish dark horse = short-term bloodbath:
If Warsh unexpectedly wins (he previously blasted QE as 'a drug'), the US dollar index will violently rebound, and BTC may flash crash to $100,000! But a crash is a good opportunity—Trump will never tolerate hawkishness, and political infighting will force a shift to easing.
Ultimate gamble: betting on a 50 basis point rate cut.
Contract players take action tonight! Buy BTC call options expiring in September, locking in a strike price of $120,000; spot traders are buying the dip in three batches: doves are buying 30%, official directors are buying 50%, and going all-in for the September FOMC meeting!
Warning: The collapse of the Federal Reserve's independence could trigger a 'credit nuclear winter'.
Lessons from the past! Goldman shatters the truth: 'Fiscal policy dominates monetary policy' will destroy the dollar's credit, and the global debt bomb (corporate debt at 105% of GDP) is about to explode! But the crypto world will laugh last—BTC will become the new anchor, on-chain hash rates and gas fees have already moved in advance!
Lao Zhu summarizes:
Trump wants to replace the head of the Federal Reserve: the current head managing the printing of dollars (Powell) has been called 'both stupid and political' by Trump, forcing him to resign! Moreover, this weekend Trump plans to install his own person as a Federal Reserve director (the law requires the chairman to be selected from the directors).
All candidates are 'easing parties': all four popular candidates (including Trump confidant Hassett) support a significant rate cut in September! Especially with Hassett in power, it’s like Trump is personally controlling the printing press—the dollar will become worthless, and cryptocurrencies will take off!
Like + Follow for next week's analysis by Lao Zhu on the inside story of the Federal Reserve#美联储何时降息？
