Based on the provided $BTC $USDT trading data, here's a technical analysis and strategic short trade plan.
#Key Technical Observations
1. **Price Position**:
- Current: **$114,100.01** (near middle Bollinger Band at **$114,100.01**)
- Upper BB: $120,137.97 | Lower BB: $108,180.22
2. **Momentum**:
- **RSI(6): 38.05** (approaching oversold but not extreme)
- Weekly trend: **-2.92%** (bearish bias)
3. **Order Book Imbalance**:
- **63.02% sell orders** vs. 36.98% buy orders (selling pressure dominance).
4. **Critical Levels**:
- Resistance: **$115,096.73** (24h high)
- Support: **$112,650.00** (24h low)
#Short Trade Strategy
#Entry Zone**: $114,500 - $114,800
- Rationale: Price rejection near upper BB ($116,152.05) or failed breakout above $115,096.73.
- Confirm with: Bearish candlestick pattern (e.g., pin bar, engulfing) on 15m/1h timeframe.
#Stop Loss** $115,250 (above 24h high)
- Risk: ~1% from entry.
#Profit Targets
1. **TP1: $113,000** (immediate support)
- Reward: **1.3:1** risk-reward.
2. **TP2: $112,650** (24h low)
Reward: 1.8:1
3. **TP3: $111,500** (psychological support near lower BB)
Reward: **3:1+
#Risk Management
Position Size**: Risk ≤1-2% of capital per trade. TStop**: After hitting TP1, move SL to breakeven.
Exit Early If
RSI(6) drops below 30 (oversold rebound risk).
Price closes above $115,100 (breakout invalidates bearish thesis).
#Key Risks & Mitigation
Bullish Catalysts
Daily trend: +0.36% (short-term upside risk).
1-year performance: +109.77% (long-term bullish trend).
Mitigation.
Wait for confirmation (e.g., lower high on 4h chart).
Avoid trading during high-volatility news events.
#Conclusion Short bias below $115,100 targeting $112,650 (TP2) with tight risk control. Exit if bullish reversal signs emerge (e.g., RSI divergence or break above daily high). Monitor order book depth for sudden liquidity shifts.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile—always validate with real-time data and your risk tolerance.
