The US economy? Haha, it's a grumbling, creaky old car right now. Even flooring the accelerator is enough to make black smoke pour out! Jonathan Pingel and his UBS savvy folks slapped their faces with the data—GDP growth in the first half of 2025 is only 1.2%! What's the point of that? It was running like a champ just two years ago, but now it's flat on its back, gasping for air! Even more bizarre is domestic demand, which soared past 3% last year and has plummeted to 1% this year! This isn't a cold or a fever, this is intubation in the ICU!
The labor market? Terrible! Terrible! July's non-farm payroll figures totaled 73,000, less than the number of people hired at a street pancake stall! Even with these figures, they were caught falsifying figures a few months ago, and after squeezing out the excess, the monthly average for the past three months is only 35,000! The unemployment rate has soared to 4.25%, a four-year high! The U-6 indicator is even worse, one point higher than before the pandemic! A UBS report reveals the truth—it's not immigrants stealing jobs, it's the people who are losing their jobs! Jobs? Yes! But I quit! I'm just lying down! This is a f*cking collapse of economic confidence, a collective slump!
The most outrageous move is here! The economy is practically dying, and Washington's bosses are slapping their foreheads: "Let's add some more tariffs to cheer it up!" Nearly 70 brother countries, including Canada and the EU, are all being slashed! The weighted tariff has been raised from 16% to 19%. Doesn't sound like much? But this cuts into the aorta! Directly bleeding 0.1%-0.2% of GDP! EU cars, chips, and pharmaceuticals, come in and take a 15% hit! What if that crazy 200% drug tariff really comes into effect? Ha! Just wait and see the people crying over the sky-high price of medicine bottles! How can this be called governing a country? This is like adding fuel to the fire because the crematorium is not doing well!
Inflation? Don't worry! The double whammy is coming! Core inflation is currently at 2.8%, and UBS predicts it will reach 3.4% by the end of the year! Why? Tariffs are like a knife, cutting off importers and then splattering the blood on the faces of ordinary people! Businesses aren't stupid. Costs are rising? Just raise prices! But what about your wages? They're freezing! The average person's life is like this: stagnant wages on the left, and skyrocketing prices on the right! They're being squeezed like hell! Even the suits at the Federal Reserve are getting impatient, leaking rumors of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and another 100 basis point cut next year. Will it work? Pssst! It's like your house is on fire, and instead of calling the fire department, you just spray a few spray bottles—what good will it do!
Pingel's report puts it bluntly: demand has collapsed, jobs are dwindling, and tariffs are exploding! With these three mountains bearing down on us, the Fed's interest rate cuts are barely scratching the surface! The root of the problem, I'd argue, is the shortsighted Washington establishment! The economy is already in disarray, and yet they're still shoving tariffs into the ground? It's pure suicidal thinking! And they're still saying "protect American industry"? Protect the hell out of it! Once the global supply chain is disrupted, costs will skyrocket, and ultimately, it will all be passed on to the people! Small businesses will collapse en masse, leaving more and more people unemployed, and demand will continue to shrink—a vicious cycle! The little money flowing into the market from the interest rate cut won't heal the supply chain; it may even further fatten the hungry wolf of inflation!
Now let's see how this drama ends: If the Federal Reserve actually cuts interest rates in September, the stock market gamblers will surely be thrilled for a brief moment. Then what? Tariffs will be slashed, and the prices of imported goods will skyrocket! At Wang's small supermarket on the corner, German beer has increased by 30%, and Korean TVs are 500 yuan more expensive. Will Wang just bear it? If he can't, he'll close down!
Another list of unemployed people has been added! Is the EU a pushover? A backhanded slap in the face, a trade war has begun! Asian factories are trembling, and global supply chains are shattered! When ordinary people see this, they'll hold on to their wallets even tighter, and demand will freeze to a crisp! Then the monster of stagflation will truly erupt—no economic growth, but rising prices! What will life be like for ordinary people? Wages will creep down, and prices will skyrocket! UBS's prediction? Too polite! Reality will only be more brutal!
Finally, let me ask you a heartbreaking question: With the Fed's interest rate cuts, will the US economy manage to recover, or will it plummet into ruin? Are those two coins in your pocket enough to buy yourself a pair of knee braces?
