Author: arndxt
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
Welcome to the era of hyper-speculative capitalism.
Please closely monitor the M2 money supply in mid-September.
In the current irrational economic environment, hyper-speculation has become a natural response.
Fiscal and monetary policies were once tools to anchor the market to a stable state, but this stability has now cracked:
The U.S. is running a 7% GDP deficit, occurring during a time of full employment.
Interest rates remain at 5%, but Bitcoin is approaching historical highs.
Monetary policy has been replaced by fiscal dominance, with stimulus continuing even during periods of economic 'prosperity'.
The market no longer reflects fundamentals; it reflects liquidity.
The Bitcoin frenzy: is it reasonable in a chaotic world?
Bitcoin no longer needs a weak economy or rate cuts. In fact, the optimal macro environment may be one without new shocks, with liquidity conditions continuing to improve.
And liquidity is surging:
Global M2 money supply remains high and may have peaked.
If Bitcoin rises by 10%, over $13 billion in short positions will be liquidated, indicating that the market still has ample funds to drive its parabolic rise.
Bitcoin typically peaks 525 to 530 days after a halving, suggesting that late September 2025 could be a key timeframe.
@MintedMacro provides a clear roadmap based on historical halving cycles:
Liquidity-driven cycle: When M2 grows, Bitcoin performs strongly. Currently, M2 has formed a double top, with the second peak lower than the first.
Top timing prediction:
2013: 525 days post-halving.
2017: 530 days post-halving.
2021: 518 days post-halving.
2025: around September 21.
Expected top range:
Bitcoin could reach $135,000 to $150,000.
However, the upside may be limited by macro tightening policies.
Key conclusions:
A rebound may occur in September, followed by a liquidity-driven correction.
In the context of distorted fundamentals and liquidity becoming a dominant force, market participants are adapting.
Macro analysis updated to August 3, 2025, covering the following topics:
Macro events this week.
Bitcoin heat index.
Market overview.
Key economic indicators.
Focus on India.
Summary of macro events this week
Bitcoin heat index.
Banking and regulatory dynamics:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launches a 'crypto initiative' aimed at enhancing regulation and elevating U.S. leadership in digital finance.
PayPal launches 'crypto payments' feature, allowing U.S. businesses to accept 100 types of cryptocurrencies.
Visa expands stablecoin settlement capabilities by adding supported tokens and blockchains.
BNB hits an all-time high, driven by institutional demand and corporate funding inflows.
Institutional investment and project development:
Tron Inc. submits a $1 billion securities statement, becoming the largest holder of TRX.
Strategy Inc. acquires $739.8 million in Bitcoin, expanding its holdings to $43 billion and launching a preferred stock IPO.
Tether reports a second-quarter profit of $4.9 billion, with strong demand for Bitcoin and gold.
SharpLink Gaming acquires $295 million in Ethereum, becoming the second largest holder with 438,017 ETH.
Syntetika Hub launches: a learning, contribution, and reward center within the ecosystem.
NFTs and digital collectibles market:
NFT sales soared to $574 million in July, the second highest for 2025, driven by demand from large investors.
CryptoPunks floor price reached $208,000, a three-year high, driven by Ethereum's rise.
Market overview.
U.S. economy: broader signs of slowdown.
This week's economic data conveys a clear and consistent message: U.S. economic growth momentum sharply slowed in the first half of this year.
Consumer behavior is changing; despite healthier household balance sheets, credit card usage is tightening, reflecting rising uncertainty rather than optimism.
Housing affordability has hit a historic low: even with a slight decrease in home prices, mortgage rates and holding costs (taxes, insurance, maintenance) have surged. The Atlanta Fed reports that owning a median-priced home now consumes 53% of middle-class income, a historical high, highlighting structural barriers to home ownership.
Global central banks: policy paths diverging.
Policy divergences are becoming apparent: central banks in Japan, Canada, Brazil, Colombia, and Singapore are holding rates steady, while Chile and South Africa have preemptively cut rates by 25 basis points due to slowing inflation and economic weakness.
Eurozone GDP slightly exceeded expectations in the second quarter, growing by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, but core inflation remains stable at 2.3% year-on-year, indicating that the European Central Bank will remain cautious.
China's July PMI softened, indicating that its economic recovery momentum is fading faster than expected, which could drag down regional demand and supply chains.
Federal Reserve: the dilemma of data dependence.
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, reinforcing its cautious stance amidst mixed signals.
The September meeting may still adjust rates, but a rate cut is not certain; Fed officials have clearly stated the need to wait for clearer evidence from the labor market, inflation, and consumer data.
The outlook depends on the depth of the economic slowdown and whether inflation continues to ease without triggering a recession.
Key economic indicators.
U.S.-Japan Agreement
New tariff agreement: lower than threats but still high.
The U.S. announced a 15% tariff on all Japanese imports, up from the previous 10%, and far higher than the 2.5% at the beginning of the year.
The previous tariff on vehicles and parts was 27.5%, now unified at 15%, boosting Japanese auto stocks and the stock market.
Inflation risks stem from rising import prices.
Although it avoided an extreme 25% tax rate, the 15% tariff will still drive up consumer prices for Japanese goods, increasing inflationary pressures and weakening American household purchasing power.
Broader shifts in trade policy could further elevate import costs in other regions.
Japan's $550 billion investment commitment: terms unclear.
Trump claims Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., with 90% of profits going to the U.S., calling it a 'signing bonus'.
However, Japanese negotiators indicate that this figure is a ceiling rather than a guaranteed amount, and expect the U.S. to share risks and financing.
The lack of a written agreement raises questions about enforceability, setting the stage for future disputes.
U.S. manufacturing faces labor constraints.
The agreement aims to shift more manufacturing activity to the U.S., but how to fill positions amidst labor shortages and tightening immigration policies remains unclear.
This contradiction undermines the strategy of reducing trade deficits through repatriation.
Auto industry rebound: unfair competition.
American automakers face higher costs than Japanese importers due to:
25% tariff on imported parts.
50% tariff on imported steel and aluminum.
Complex rebate processes under NAFTA/USMCA.
Industry leaders warn that the agreement favors Japanese rather than American manufacturers and workers, raising concerns about setting a precedent for future trade agreements.
Doubts about the agreement: negotiations rather than contract signing.
No formal treaty signed; both sides have diverged on the interpretation of terms.
Widespread concerns have been raised about the U.S. reliance on non-binding trade commitments, which could erode trust and stability in future negotiations.
Job market.
New graduates are experiencing an unprecedented hiring slump.
The unemployment rate for recent college graduates has hit a ten-year high, just one percentage point lower than all young workers, with an unusually narrow gap.
Historically, the job prospects for college graduates have been far better than their peers; this convergence is a warning sign for white-collar employment trends.
AI is not the main cause, at least not for now.
Although generative AI has been blamed for eliminating entry-level jobs, its impact remains confined to specific industries (e.g., technology).
Broader measures are still insufficient to explain the widespread weakness in graduate hiring.
Policy uncertainty has tempered the market.
Uncertainty surrounding trade policy, Federal Reserve rate direction, and immigration restrictions may hinder corporate hiring, especially for tech positions.
This uncertainty also affects employee behavior, with low turnover rates reflecting hesitance to switch jobs in an unstable market.
Lower turnover = fewer job vacancies, leading to a slowdown in labor market mobility.
Shortage of skilled workers easing.
The long-standing shortage of college graduates, once a key driver of high wage premiums, is weakening.
As more workers enter the skilled labor pool, wage premiums are tending to flatten or decline, potentially further suppressing creativity in traditional high-growth industries.
Focus on India.
UK-India trade agreement: a significant non-U.S. pivot.
The UK and India have reached a landmark trade agreement, cutting tariffs on over 90% of UK exports to India.
The UK is expected to see a 60% increase in exports to India by 2040, benefiting from rapidly expanding access to the Indian market.
The auto industry is the biggest winner.
India has reduced its auto import tariffs from 100% to 10%; this dramatic change could reshape the auto market.
However, quotas limit total imports, suppressing short-term commercial gains for British automakers.
India benefits significantly
Despite the news focusing on UK export growth, India benefits more from its own tariff cuts:
Consumer prices decrease.
Domestic competition intensifies.
Indian businesses gain global competitiveness.
These structural advantages may enhance India's long-term export capacity and productivity.
India exempts 50% of goods exported to the UK from tariffs.
Of the Indian export goods that previously faced tariffs of 4%–16%, about 50% will now enter the UK tariff-free, benefiting Indian textile, pharmaceutical, and food exporters.
Strategic trade restructuring.
The agreement reflects a global trend: as U.S. tariffs disrupt existing trade patterns, countries are attempting to diversify partnerships.
India is actively seeking trade liberalization with the EU, ASEAN, and even the U.S., positioning itself as a key player in the post-globalization reset.
Summary.
The core features of the era of hyper-speculative capitalism are liquidity-driven, fiscally dominant, and a departure from traditional economic logic. The frenzy over Bitcoin, the restructuring of trade patterns, and the evolution of the labor market are all reflections of this era. Investors and policymakers must adapt to this new reality and respond flexibly to the challenges posed by liquidity fluctuations and policy uncertainties.
A prominent feature of the current global economy is liquidity-driven market behavior. Traditional economic theory suggests that asset prices should reflect their intrinsic value or the present value of future cash flows. However, in the era of hyper-speculative capitalism, liquidity, or the abundance of available funds, has become the core factor driving market prices.
Taking Bitcoin as an example, its price fluctuations are highly correlated with the growth of global M2 money supply. When central banks inject large amounts of money into the market through quantitative easing or other means, these funds often flow into high-risk, high-return assets like cryptocurrencies. This phenomenon was particularly evident in 2025, when Bitcoin continued to rise despite the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, reflecting a market dependency on liquidity that has surpassed focus on traditional economic indicators.
