At the turning point of globalization entering the 'Divided Era', the US tariff system against China evolves from the 'Section 301' to a multi-layered overlay mechanism in 2025, completely overturning the landscape of cross-border business and supply chains. At the same time, the Web3 ecosystem represented by blockchain and crypto technology is becoming a new battleground for enterprises and capital seeking resilience and opportunities amid turmoil. This article will conduct an in-depth analysis from four dimensions: macro policy, industrial chain reshaping, capital flow, and technological innovation, and propose strategic recommendations for enterprises and investors.
1. Overlay of Tariff Matrix: The Cost Whirlpool Under Multiple Legal Authorizations
Since the US initiated the 'Section 301' tariffs in 2018, the additional tax burden imposed on China has already exceeded a single rate of 25% or 7.5%. In early 2025, an additional 20% was imposed based on the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA), and another 10% was added in April as 'reciprocal tariffs'. Coupled with the still-high Section 232 tariffs—25% on steel and aluminum, 50% on newly added copper, and a 30% or more fixed tax burden on low-priced e-commerce goods, creating a real tax rate range of 30% to 70%, with some mixed products possibly exceeding 100%. This complexity and opacity are becoming the core means by which the US exerts pressure through multiple legislations and reasons (intellectual property, national security, trade deficit, fentanyl crisis).
2. Global Supply Chain Restructuring: From China+1 to Regional Balance
Under the pressure of high tariffs, enterprises have to reshape the global supply chain landscape. Data shows that between 2024 and 2025, the supply chain shares of Vietnam, India, and Mexico will increase from 15%, 10%, and 10% to 20%, 12%, and 12%, respectively. Although China's share remains the largest, it has decreased from 25% to 20%, reflecting that 'China+1' is no longer an option but has become a business survival strategy.
In this process, enterprises face not only cost considerations but also hidden compliance and traceability risks. Extended cross-border logistics, complex customs classification, and cash flow pressure caused by shipping and tariffs drive more enterprises to leverage supply chain visualization and smart contract technology to achieve multi-site redundancy and compliance automation.
3. Capital and Hedging: Financial Sanctuaries in the Era of Web3
The geopolitical risks of tariff policies are affecting financial markets, with a capital outflow of $223 million from US crypto exchanges in early August, closely linked to the fluctuation of the RMB to USD exchange rate between 7.18 and 7.20 (Chart 2). Against the backdrop of traditional hedging tools failing or becoming more costly, stablecoins and mainstream crypto assets have become 'digital safe havens' for enterprises and high-net-worth individuals in the short term.
In addition, the implementation of blockchain in supply chain traceability and cross-border settlement is providing explosive growth opportunities for Web3 enterprises. Smart contracts can embed tax rates and logistics information to achieve automated clearing; NFTs and exclusive wallets are giving rise to the DTC (Direct-to-Crypto) e-commerce model, helping Chinese SMEs directly face global consumers with crypto assets, bypassing the cumbersome processes of traditional banks and customs.
4. Regulation and Compliance: Opportunities and Challenges Under Tightening Boundaries
In the face of tariff arbitrage and cross-border capital flows, global regulatory bodies have quickly followed up. The US and EU are strengthening KYC/AML reviews of crypto exchanges and plan to include the cross-border clearing of stablecoins in the customs declaration system; China is vigorously promoting the digital RMB (e-CNY) in Southeast Asia and Latin America as part of its financial sovereignty strategy to counter the dollar system through 'currency diplomacy'. This means that Web3 enterprises must seek compliance arbitrage across multiple national regulations while strengthening the technical architecture connection to ensure the parallel flow of capital and product compliance.
5. Strategic Recommendations: Dual Driving Forces of Resilience and Innovation
Deep Insight into Supply Chains and Diverse Redundancies
Establish full-chain visibility covering second and third-tier suppliers, utilizing blockchain technology to trace the origin and supply risks of core raw materials (such as rare earths and copper), and parallelly deploy production capacity in Vietnam, Mexico, India, and the US.Web3 Settlement Network and Compliance Middleware
Build a multi-chain stablecoin network, deeply integrate with traditional ERP, WMS, and customs automation systems; deploy a smart contract tax engine to achieve dynamic tax rate automatic release and settlement, reducing human error and regulatory risks.Crypto Hedging and Currency Strategies
Utilize stablecoins to hedge against RMB volatility, while also focusing on the application of digital RMB in the Southeast Asian market, establishing e-CNY clearing channels to ensure localized payment and financing convenience.Regulatory Sandbox and Cross-Border Compliance Alliance
Actively participate in pilot projects of regulatory sandboxes in multiple countries, collaborating with customs and financial regulatory authorities to design a 'Crypto Compliance Middleware', adapting to the new regulatory normal of future cross-border e-commerce and capital flows in advance.Data-Driven Decision Making: Continuous Dynamic Adjustment
It is recommended that enterprises and investment institutions establish a 'Tariff Impact and Supply Chain Risk Dashboard' based on BI and AI to monitor policy changes, cargo flows, and capital trends in real-time, achieving dynamic adjustments and forward-looking layouts.
Conclusion: The US-China tariff war in 2025 is not just a trade friction, but a watershed for global economic governance and technological innovation paths. Enterprises can only grasp the new round of global innovation dividends in the tide of a divided era by building resilient supply chains and dynamic compliance systems centered on Web3 and smart contracts amid fragmented uncertainties.