Recently, the market has been quite volatile. On the macro front, Trump has started stirring things up again, demanding tariffs on the EU, pharmaceuticals, and chips, with rates even soaring to 250%. Such tariffs will exacerbate global trade pressures, and naturally, both the stock and cryptocurrency markets will feel the strain, leading to heightened risk-averse sentiments, with gold being hoarded by investors.

Looking at the Federal Reserve, a rate cut in September is practically a done deal, with CME giving a 92% probability. However, the positive impact has yet to materialize, and the market is hesitant to act rashly in the short term.

In terms of Bitcoin, hash rates have hit new highs, indicating that miners remain optimistic about the future. However, the price hasn't followed suit, creating a divergence. In the short term, this could turn out to be bearish, as higher hash rates increase mining costs, potentially leading some smaller miners to sell off to cash out.

From a technical perspective, BTC has been weakening since around 115K, having declined for several consecutive days. It is estimated that it may need to retest the 110K area; ETH is even more pronounced, as it has struggled to break above 3700 and has now fallen back down, showing weak rebound strength and a generally soft trend.

Altcoins are in even worse shape; once the hot money leaves, they collapse immediately. Concepts like AI, RWA, and L2 have seen fleeting interest without establishing a sustained flow of capital. At this stage, the overall market is still in an adjustment phase, and the risks of trading spot are quite high, with poor profit-making effects. One should remember a key principle about altcoins: don't view them as investments; treat them purely as speculative trades. When there's a rise, make sure to run; don't get too attached.

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