财经东晨

2025 is coming, let’s set sail together with 东晨领航!

In the current market environment, short-term trading is indeed very necessary. If we keep waiting for the spot price to rise, we might feel the anguish of time. Dongchen has recently been fully engaged in ultra-short-term and first-tier operations, yielding good results.

Dongchen only engages in things that are certain, making an average of only 1-2 trades a day. If there is confidence in a target, decisive action will follow; if there is no absolute certainty, we will not act! Brothers: in 2025, come to Dongchen for guidance, and let’s set sail together!

The current market pattern is quite clear: Bitcoin has no significant trend, basically grinding at high levels, while Ethereum is also in a sideways oscillation, with the main focus gradually shifting to altcoins. As long as Ethereum remains stable, funds will seek out more elastic assets, which is why you can see many altcoins experiencing significant gains in just one day recently.

For example, ENS, a quality representative of the Ethereum ecosystem, is currently hovering around the long-term moving average, which is considered a safe position, and there is considerable upside potential. If there is indeed a rotation of funds, high-quality altcoins are likely to be singled out; looking at CFX, 0.2 is a clear resistance level, suitable for short-term trading, while the mid-term is more appropriate for waiting for a pullback to position; and some coins like ETHFI, ID, FLOW, ARB, and OP, which follow Ethereum, generally have stronger trends than Ethereum itself, indicating that funds are already positioning in advance.

Overall, this is not the outbreak of a comprehensive bull market, but rather a local market with sector rotation. Funds will pick assets with stories, positions, and liquidity for a wave, and cryptocurrencies in the top 50 or 100 by market cap have more controllable risks. Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut meeting next month, the market's speculation window is still open, and the safe period is likely to continue for a while longer.

Remember this: opportunities arise from declines, while risks stem from increases. Most altcoins are currently resting at low levels, so the actual risk is not significant, but no one knows when the market will start moving. Once one or two assets double in a single day, the wealth effect will ignite, and that's when we can truly say we've entered the 'altcoin season'.

Be bold, but also be able to withstand pullbacks; short-term drops of 20–30% are normal, after all, high returns never come for free.

Although Bitcoin has broken through the resistance level of 113200 in the past two days, the overall momentum is still relatively weak. Previously, institutions had moved a large number of positions from BTC to ETH, causing Bitcoin to drop below 110000 at one point. Although it is gradually recovering now, the capital situation is still weak, and it may not be so easy to see a significant breakthrough.

On the Ethereum side, the situation is obviously better. Recently, institutions have been continuously increasing their positions around 4600, and the trend remains stable. If they can manage this range of fluctuations well, it is not ruled out that they will challenge 5000 again.

Overall, ETH and SOL have been performing relatively stronger due to continuous buying by institutions. In the short term, they may still lead the market, with Bitcoin passively following. It is highly likely that this will also drive mainstream altcoins to catch up later.

今天以太表现相当给力，从4310一路拉到4630，振幅超过7%。但有意思的是，以太系大多数没跟上它的节奏，更别提其他山寨了。这也是为什么一直强调：要埋伏，先埋伏以太本尊。昨天上车的朋友，今天在4600上方分批落袋就很舒服。

早盘CKB冲得猛，看看能不能带动CFX；AI板块昨天也有表现，NMR带动了不少，像NFP、LPT也都动了，这个赛道我觉得是长期可以埋伏的。SNX也经常上榜，可以加个自选留意。

宏观面这周没啥重磅数据，月底香港峰会可能会有点消息刺激，市场需要波动才有机会。再提一句SOL，虽然我参与不多，但它算风险较低的标的，美国机构挺偏爱的，相关的JTO也可以盯着。

总结下：下半年可以重点盯的几个方向：

AI赛道：WLD、NFP、LPT

ETF预期：DOGE、XRP、LTC、SOL

以太系列：ARB、UNI、LDO、ENA

公链板块：CFX、ADA、SOL系列的JTO

其他杂七杂八的山寨，没资金炒作就别浪费精力了，连BN榜都上不去的，早点删自选。

Recently, the trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown a clear divergence—Ethereum continues to reach new highs, while Bitcoin performs relatively steadily. Last Friday, Ethereum's rise triggered a rebound in altcoins, but after two days of fluctuations over the weekend, most altcoins returned to their original positions. This indicates that the entire altcoin market has not yet fully stabilized, with lower liquidity and no significant or smart money driving the market. Currently, the main focus of market participants is still on mainstream assets, especially Ethereum.

From a trend perspective, Ethereum is in a phase of adjustment and accumulation after a rapid rise. I personally believe that altcoins may soon welcome a wave of explosive opportunities, making it worth paying close attention to leading altcoins and the top assets in various popular sectors.

For those without SUI, it is advisable to buy spot below $3.5 with a target of $4.5--$5.6.

The short-term target for SOL can be seen at $255-$270.

For ONDO spot, target levels are: $1.12-$1.3-$1.5-$2.

Today, the market's focus remains on OKB, benefiting from the rapid development of the X chain and rumors pushing platform B towards a public chain transformation, avoiding securities risks. The hype around OKB has been extremely wild, reminiscent of the past BGB and HT. It can be seen that the entire B circle's landscape is already very different from that of 2021, and the logic of the bull market is also changing - it's no longer a broad-based surge, but rather opportunities arise when funds are focused. Currently, players heavily invested in altcoins may still be recovering their capital even with Ethereum close to its historical high, indicating that going with the trend and focusing on strong assets is key.

On the technical side, yesterday it was expected that Ethereum would pull back to 4200, and it has now rebounded to 4300, with short-term resistance at 4400. A breakthrough is needed to challenge 4550 or even the previous high of 4800, otherwise, it may retest the 4000 support again. LDO and ENA have performed well today after adjustments, and short-term opportunities can be considered. The volatility of altcoins remains intense; CFX fell back after a big rise yesterday, and short-term buying on dips is more stable than chasing highs. At this stage, Ethereum is still the preferred choice for stability.

Looking ahead, the September policy easing may bring in incremental funds, starting a new wave of altcoin bull market. The expected range for Ethereum in this bull market is 8000 to 10000. Before pushing for a new high, it is still necessary to build support around 4000, so a phase of pullback is inevitable. In terms of the overall market, Bitcoin is focusing on the 115000 support. The overall strategy is: go with the trend, focus on strong assets, and seek opportunities that have real logic and fund attention.

The market has actually been performing as expected these past few days, and those who dared to take action during the panic have already seen good returns. Ethereum rebounded from 4060 to 4370, and Bitcoin also pulled back from 112300 to 114700, indicating that there is still support below. In terms of local hotspots, CFX was stimulated by news and surged to 0.2, with a daily increase of over 20%, while OKB skyrocketed by 40%, reaching a high of 195. For such suddenly exploding assets, it is not suitable to chase higher; securing profits is safer. For those truly wanting to invest in platform tokens, BNB offers better value for money; it has not been ignited yet, and once news comes out and you chase it, it will be too late.

In the short-term rhythm, Ethereum is still the main player in the current market. The pressure is around 4400, and there may be a pullback to 4200; only if it can stabilize above 4400 will there be a chance to open up a larger space to challenge new highs. BTC is relatively weak and may still need to test the 112000 range, but this position is actually a good opportunity for positioning. In other words, the current capital game point is still centered around Ethereum, while other altcoins are more about rotation and sentiment following.

In terms of themes, assets like MEME, CFX, and OKB, which rely on news hype, often have a second wave of market trends, but the risks and pullbacks are also significant. Those who like volatility can take small positions to speculate; for example, CAKE still has room, but don’t have too high expectations; making a new high is good enough. I have mentioned CFX before; its logic is still valid, with an upgrade expectation in September, and it can be positioned for short, medium, and long-term, but one must accept its significant volatility.

Overall, there aren’t many market opportunities; the core that can ensure profits is still Ethereum. For altcoins, it is suitable to take small positions to speculate on sentiment and themes. Remember this phrase: profit and loss originate from the same source. If you want to enjoy the dividends of high volatility, you must be able to withstand deep pullbacks. If you want to be more stable, then honestly invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The investment journey is long, and earning money within your cognitive range is more important than anything else.

Last night, the U.S. stock market plunged to 112k after opening, with an intraday decline of nearly 3%. It subsequently rebounded above 113k, while ETH also broke below 4100, and ETH/BTC returned to 0.036. Bitcoin's market share rose to 59%, indicating that funds are flowing back from altcoins to mainstream assets. The overall decline is still driven by macro factors, with increasing divergence in the market regarding interest rate cuts in September. If tonight's FOMC minutes are hawkish, volatility may increase.

In terms of capital, institutions in the U.S. and Europe continue to accumulate BTC and ETH at low levels, while Asian retail investors and whales are cashing out for risk aversion. ETF outflows have intensified, but major buyers like the Treasury and BMNR are still increasing their ETH holdings, making institutions the primary driving force.

There is significant divergence among altcoins, with $M, $GTC, and $GRASS rising due to community or AI concepts, $MNT supported by increased TVL, while $ADA and $ZORA plummeted due to negative news. The meme sector is actively speculated in the short term, with $PUMP firmly at the forefront.

Looking ahead to this week, if Powell leans dovish, BTC is expected to test 120k, and ETH may return to 4500; altcoins may continue to rotate among sectors, with a focus on DeFi/Layer2 and AI tracks, while meme coins are suitable for short-term trading.

Yesterday, Bitcoin surged and then fell back to around 117,000, while Ethereum retraced to 4,450. However, every time the bull turns back, it presents a layout opportunity. Last time Ethereum was at 3,350, it rose to 4,790 within ten days, rebounding by 1,400 dollars, with significant funding push. High-leverage contracts carry great risk; stabilizing the principal is more important than chasing highs.

Currently, funds are concentrated in Ethereum and related ecosystem coins, with LDO, ENA, UNI, ETC, etc. showing active performance and worthy of focus; Layer 2 tokens like ARB and OP have high volatility, primarily for short-term operations. BNB and CAKE also have layout value, with potential once the main upward wave arrives.

Overall, market corrections are normal. Focus on targets with funding, potential, and favorable news, and layout steadily. As long as Ethereum does not break below 4,000, the bullish trend is likely to continue, and the September altcoin season is also worth looking forward to.

The core story of Ethereum now is the large-scale purchases by listed companies, which have driven the continuous rise in prices, indicating a strong signal of capital entering the market. However, to see a more practical and grounded story, the focus lies on the rise and application of staking ETFs. Staking ETFs not only stabilize assets but also bring robust returns, making them a true core driving force in the current market.

For those who have missed this wave, it is recommended to pay attention to leading projects in the staking sector, such as LDO, SSV, and PENDLE. These projects rank high in the staking ecosystem, have mature technology, and are highly recognized in the market, possessing good potential and safety. You can choose one or more of them based on your risk tolerance and judgment to seize the dividend opportunities brought by staking. Overall, staking ETFs are not only an important part of Ethereum's future development but may also become an important support point for the upcoming market rise.

The market is really bustling now, the US is promoting talks between Russia and Ukraine, and capital is continuously flowing into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. ETH is leading the surge, with on-chain AI, DeFi, new coins, and Alpha all experiencing explosive growth. Altcoins are taking off across the board, and after Bitcoin holds above 120,000, it is expected to challenge new highs. Opportunities abound, but one must keep a close eye on strong targets.

Recently, the surge in Ethereum has primarily been driven by institutional funds, which has led to a rise in some altcoins following suit. However, this wave of altcoin market is difficult to replicate the classic rhythm of 'Ethereum rises and funds overflow, altcoins surge' from the past. This is because a large amount of institutional funds will not easily flow into the chaotic altcoin market. The rise of altcoins largely relies on emotional speculation and lacks sustained momentum. Once ETH experiences a slight pullback, many altcoins may quickly fall back. Overall, the opportunities for a significant altcoin season with substantial surges are quite limited. Only a few hot projects can perform well by rotating funds, while a large number of altcoins scattered in the market are unlikely to receive focused attention from funds. Therefore, when betting on altcoins, it is crucial to be selective and look for strength, rather than blindly chasing price increases.

Finally, I’d like to ask everyone a question: Which altcoins have you bet on in this round?

Trump wants to allow pension funds to buy cryptocurrencies, this is a real policy-level benefit! Don't be too aggressive in the short term, but in the long term, it really is set to take off!

Step onto the battlefield, and you become the fearless warrior, cutting through thorns and advancing forward! #emmm In hand, with brothers march into the smoke, let the blood witness, the moment of glory!

In order to promote interest rate cuts, Chuanzi personally selected people to take over the Federal Reserve, focusing on a 'dovish compliance.' No wonder the market surged instantly last night, and the expectation for a rate cut in September has been reignited!

Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow for four consecutive days, with nearly 200 million USD flowing out in a single day yesterday. Even BlackRock and Fidelity are selling, indicating a clear phase of institutional profit-taking. The short-term market is under significant pressure; although there has been a slight inflow into Ethereum, the overall liquidity is trending downward. If capital continues to flow out, the situation may not just be a simple fluctuation!

Recently, the market has been quite volatile. On the macro front, Trump has started stirring things up again, demanding tariffs on the EU, pharmaceuticals, and chips, with rates even soaring to 250%. Such tariffs will exacerbate global trade pressures, and naturally, both the stock and cryptocurrency markets will feel the strain, leading to heightened risk-averse sentiments, with gold being hoarded by investors.

Looking at the Federal Reserve, a rate cut in September is practically a done deal, with CME giving a 92% probability. However, the positive impact has yet to materialize, and the market is hesitant to act rashly in the short term.

In terms of Bitcoin, hash rates have hit new highs, indicating that miners remain optimistic about the future. However, the price hasn't followed suit, creating a divergence. In the short term, this could turn out to be bearish, as higher hash rates increase mining costs, potentially leading some smaller miners to sell off to cash out.

From a technical perspective, BTC has been weakening since around 115K, having declined for several consecutive days. It is estimated that it may need to retest the 110K area; ETH is even more pronounced, as it has struggled to break above 3700 and has now fallen back down, showing weak rebound strength and a generally soft trend.

Altcoins are in even worse shape; once the hot money leaves, they collapse immediately. Concepts like AI, RWA, and L2 have seen fleeting interest without establishing a sustained flow of capital. At this stage, the overall market is still in an adjustment phase, and the risks of trading spot are quite high, with poor profit-making effects. One should remember a key principle about altcoins: don't view them as investments; treat them purely as speculative trades. When there's a rise, make sure to run; don't get too attached.

Just go for it in 2025. When there are opportunities in the market, I will share them immediately. I hope to seize opportunities in both secondary and primary markets with my brothers, working together to win the future. Brothers are welcome to join the chat room for discussions: 聊天室