📊 A Calm After the Rally: Bitcoin is Repricing
Bitcoin's recent rally has hit the brakes: Spot, futures, options, and ETFs have all cooled significantly.
Liquidity is thinning, and risk appetite is also declining. While there are signs of weakening selling pressure,
the market structure remains fragile, and downside risks remain.
Spot Market
1️⃣ The RSI fell from 47.4 to 35.8, entering the oversold zone.
2️⃣ Spot CVD fell from -$107 million to -$220 million, indicating a significant increase in selling pressure.
3️⃣ Trading volume also shrank to $7.5 billion, indicating a decline in capital participation.
Futures Market
1️⃣ Open interest fell from $45.6 billion to $44.9 billion, indicating a weakening of long-term leverage.
2️⃣ The long funding rate plummeted by 33%, indicating a decline in active long positions.
3️⃣ Perp CVD also fell to -$1.8 billion, putting significant pressure on distributed liquidation.
Options Market
1️⃣ OI decreased by 8.4%, indicating a contraction in speculative sentiment.
2️⃣ The 25 Delta Skew rose to 5.51%, indicating a clear market buy for downside protection and a rise in risk aversion.
ETF Market
1️⃣ Net inflows decreased by 24.9%, reflecting cooling institutional demand.
2️⃣ Although trading volume increased by 9.9%, this was more of a passive trade, not incremental buying.
On-chain Data
Active addresses increased by 3.6%, but both transfer volume and fees declined, indicating a cooling of network activity.
Capital inflows remained stable, but the overall profit ratio dropped to 93.6%, indicating a clearer market sentiment.
My Opinion 👇
The current market appears to be shifting from overheated enthusiasm to a period of calm observation. Oversold conditions and a weakening of selling pressure suggest a possible short-term technical rebound, but a major market resurgence depends on new incremental capital and a rebound in sentiment.
Strategy Recommendations:
Short-term: Avoid chasing highs; wait and see or buy on dips.
Medium-term: Determine whether institutional inflows, particularly into ETFs, will rebound.
Risks: Further negative external factors could easily rupture the fragile structure.
Do you believe this correction will lead to a rebound, or a further period of decline?
