🧵Recently, I've looked at some on-chain data for Bitcoin, and to be honest, it's a bit interesting and a bit unusual. Here are some of my observations and thoughts:
1️⃣ The volatility is unusually stable
$BTC has been hovering around 20% volatility recently, remaining stagnant for a long time.
This isn't due to a lack of sentiment, but rather it feels like big money is waiting for something—
it could be movements from the Federal Reserve, or perhaps they are waiting for a clear direction in $ETH/$BTC before acting.
2️⃣ Whales are buying, ETFs are increasing positions, yet the price remains stagnant
This is actually quite strange.
It's not that no one is buying, but it's clear that they are controlling the pace and don't want to push the price up right now.
It feels a bit like they are suppressing the price to accumulate, not wanting retail investors to push it higher.
3️⃣ 95% of addresses are in profit, which seems positive, but I actually think it’s a bit dangerous
When too many people are making money, if the market turns weak, there's a risk of a collective sell-off to take profits.
Don't forget, rising prices require patience, but falling prices only need one reason.
4️⃣ $BTC has started to correlate with US stocks again
It had previously decoupled, but recently it has been moving in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
In simple terms: $BTC is being treated as a risk asset again, rather than having an independent logic.
5️⃣ So my view on $BTC is quite simple now:
It's not that it won't rise, but it hasn't chosen the right timing yet.
116k–119k is a key resistance area; once it breaks through, the upside will open up quickly.
But until then, don't bet on the direction; wait for signals.
6️⃣ One last thing:
The market truly starts moving, not because the data looks good,
but because the funds have started to act.
