In the storm of the crypto market, the true helmsman never focuses on the waves, but instead watches the undercurrents closely—ETH's 1-hour candlestick chart is staging an ultimate battle between technicals and emotions.
Today's crash's 'three fires': a combination of technicals, sentiment, and funds attacking the market.
1. Technicals: $3735 is the 'pressure cooker lid', bulls have failed in three charges.
ETH failed to break through $3735 three times today, much like a game where you get wiped out three times before the BOSS level. This position is not only a previous high resistance level but also stuck at the upper Bollinger Band, with MACD forming a death cross above the zero line, which means the bullish energy bar is exhausted. Even more heartbreaking is that the RSI(6) plummeted from 68 to 31.62, like a sprinter suddenly cramping after pushing to the limit—there is a strong technical demand for a pullback.
2. Sentiment: Main funds 'grease their feet', retail investors follow suit.
Look at the distribution of large transactions: 81.7k ETH was densely sold in the 3620-3650 range, with a commission ratio of -0.26% indicating a selling advantage. It's like someone shouting 'fire' in a movie theater, where the big players in the front row run first, followed by the retail investors in the back. A 5% decrease in open interest is even more direct—the bullish positions are retreating like a receding tide, even the futures market can't hold up: a funding rate of 0.0035% shows that bullish leverage is high, while a basis of -0.045% indicates that futures prices are lower than spot prices, which is a typical profit-taking signal.
3. Case: A certain whale's 'magic operation'.
Three hours ago, an address exchanged 1562.7 ETH for 49.39 WBTC (Bitcoin), this operation is very similar to large investors swapping stocks for gold before a stock market crash. Even more ruthless, a certain institution placed a sell order for 12,000 ETH around $3735, directly smashing the price through the floor—such a level of capital movement is the real driving force behind a short-term crash.
Personal opinion from Shen Ce: I still hold the morning view, the strategy of buying on pullback remains unchanged, expecting the US stock market to hit 3800 when it opens in the evening. I don't know when to enter, stay tuned to Shen Ce!
The charm of the crypto market lies in its eternal opportunities for re-selection—but opportunities are only reserved for those who are prepared. Now, do you want to be the retail investor led by emotions, or the hunter who controls the candlesticks?
