'In a volatile market, while bulls and bears are fighting, retail investors should not rush to take sides; first, understand the intricacies before taking action!'
Last night's ETH movement was like a 'couple's quarrel'—bulls wanted to charge to 3700, while bears stubbornly defended 3550, resulting in both staring at each other around 3600, unable to do anything. Before the US stock market opened yesterday, many people shouted 'ETH is about to take off' (I was one of them 🤡), but as soon as the price touched 3660, it wilted, directly retreating back into the 'little nest' of 3550-3600, turning short-term traders into 'stone waiting for husbands'.
Key price level: Both bulls and bears are 'feeling out their cards', but the cards are a bit murky.
What the market is most conflicted about now are three key price levels:
3690: Yesterday bulls pushed here and were directly sprayed back by the bears' 'high-pressure water gun', indicating too many trapped positions above, and breaking through in the short term would require 'external force' (such as a sudden surge in US stocks or large institutional orders).
3580: The current price is like a 'seesaw', with bulls and bears taking turns stepping on this point—if they step firmly, they bounce up; if they step lightly, they fall down. Yesterday, trading volume shrank to 'mosquito buzzing' levels, indicating everyone is waiting for direction, and no one wants to be 'cannon fodder'.
3489: This is the bears' 'bottom line'—if 3550 cannot hold, the price may slide here. But strangely, every time it drops to around 3500, there always seems to be a batch of 'mysterious buy orders' appearing to support the bottom, possibly institutions quietly accumulating or bears 'flipping' and closing positions.
Technical indicators are even more decisive: The MACD's DIF and DEA lines are 'twisting' near the zero axis, and the histogram is shrinking to a line, a typical neutral signal; trading volume spikes like 'squeezing toothpaste' and drops faster than a 'turtling turtle', indicating that main funds are 'lying flat' and no one is willing to lead the charge.
Why are bulls and bears 'fighting'? Simply put, they are all waiting for 'outside help'.
Why have bulls become timid?
Expectations of US stock linkage fell through: Initially thought US stocks would lift ETH at market open, but the Nasdaq rose in vain yesterday, and tech stocks even seemed a bit 'wilted'. Seeing the situation was not right, bulls quickly 'cashed out' around 3660, fearing being trapped if they were late.
Funding rate is 'neither hot nor cold': The current funding rate for perpetual contracts is only 0.0046%, with a basis of -0.055%, indicating that market sentiment is neither enthusiastic nor panicked, and neither bulls nor bears are 'overheating', making it hard to get a move on.
Why are bears afraid to 'be ruthless'?
There are 'buyers' below: When the price drops to 3550, bears want to push it down, but they find a bunch of institutional orders around 3489 (possibly ETF funds accumulating at low levels). It’s easy to push down, but hard to recover, so they simply 'take the profit'.
Order ratio is 'a minor skirmish': Currently, sell orders exceed buy orders by only 0.29%, a pitiful difference, indicating that bears lack confidence and are only 'tentatively' selling, not daring to go all in.
Tonight's US stocks, are they the 'savior' or 'a pig teammate'?
The current fluctuations in ETH essentially reflect the market 'waiting for the wind to come'—macro-wise waiting for US stocks' direction, on-chain waiting for ETF capital flow, and technically waiting for a volume breakthrough. If US stocks surge tonight, ETH may rise to 3700; if US stocks 'lie flat', ETH will likely continue to 'swing'.
Here comes the question: Do you think US stocks will lift ETH tonight, or let it continue to 'lie flat'? Let's chat in the comments; your perspective might help others avoid pitfalls!#美股代币化
