'The market erupts in hesitation and ends in celebration—ETH's W-bottom scenario, with the US stock market as the director tonight!'

Technical aspect: The W-bottom is not drawn out, but 'bought' out!

ETH's 1-hour K-line looks like a sprinter holding back energy— the double bottom pattern is so clear even beginners can understand: the first bottom at 3600, rebounding to the neckline at 3690 before pulling back, now back around 3620, a typical 'second bottom test without breaking the previous low'.

Key signal is coming:

  • MACD histogram shrinking: bearish strength is weakening, like a spring compressed to the bottom, a little release can bounce up;

  • RSI3 (52.74) neutral to strong: indicates bulls are quietly accumulating strength, not reaching a frenzy stage, making it safer;

  • Trading volume is the 'mirror of truth': recent volume hasn't increased, but don't rush—after the US stock market opens, the 'capital spillover effect' from tech stocks may become the trigger.

Personal opinion: The effectiveness of the W-bottom is 80% based on volume and 20% based on form. In May last year, ETH also formed a similar W-bottom, with the neckline at $3000, which surged directly to $3500 after breaking, an increase of 16%. This time the neckline is at 3700, with target levels at 3750-3800; the range is not large but stable, suitable for short-term swing traders.

News: The US stock market is the 'weather vane', and capital is the 'fuel'.

  1. US stock market opening effect: Tech stocks 'sneeze', ETH 'catches a cold'?
    Last night, ETH rose 3% along with Nasdaq, this is not a coincidence—The correlation between the crypto market and US stocks has shifted from 'following the trend' to 'coexistence'..

    • Example: On May 28, 2025, during the Bitcoin conference, US tech stocks surged, and ETH increased by 8% in a single day;

    • Tonight focus: Nasdaq futures, Tesla, Nvidia's trends; if tech stocks continue to rebound, ETH is likely to 'borrow the wind' to break through 3700.

  2. Funding rate 'hides mysteries'.
    Current funding rate is 0.0021%, with a position size of 7.0586 billion, basis -0.034%—The sentiment in the futures market is neutral, neither overly bearish nor wildly bullish..

    • This means: when breaking 3700, shorts may be forced to cut losses, creating a 'short squeeze' (similar to the short-term sell-off triggered by ETH staking unlock after the Shanghai upgrade in 2024, which was quickly absorbed by buying).

  3. Main orders: 3700 is the 'ghost gate', and also the 'opportunity gate'.
    There are dense sell orders around 3700 above, but strong buying support in the 3630-3650 range below—The main players may be 'fishing'.: first smashing the market to scare out retail investors' chips, then quickly pulling up to break through.

    • Example: On June 4, 2025, after ETH oscillated for 25 days, it suddenly broke through with a volume spike, gaining 5% in a single day;

    • Tonight's strategy: If the sell orders at 3700 are quickly eaten up after 21:30, and the trading volume increases by more than 20%, decisively follow up.

Tonight, are you a spectator or a player?

The W-bottom scenario for ETH has already been scripted, with the US stock market as the director, capital as the actors, are you the audience or the protagonist?
Remember: the market always erupts in hesitation and ends in celebration. Now, it's time to make a choice—tell me in the comments how you will operate tonight! (Don't forget to like and follow, see you for the recap tomorrow!)

#加密股IPO季