Turning Point Hidden Risks? Evening Market Trend Review (08.07)
First, let's look at the operational suggestions
Aggressive: Do not chase long positions, lightly short near $118,000 (set stop-loss), or follow the trend to short if it breaks $112,000.
Conservative: Stay in cash and wait for the CPI data to make a clear decision.
Cash Holders: Patiently wait and plan after the CPI is released.
Short-term Bitcoin Trends
1. Current price $116,390.89 (↑2.07%), rebounding during the day but still down 1.81% over the past 7 days, indicating a weak recovery in a bearish trend.
2. The market is “strong on the outside but weak on the inside”: long-term selling pressure in the spot market has not dissipated, futures orders are primarily from retail investors, and the rebound lacks strong support, indicating an unstable foundation.
3. Resistance at $118,000-$120,000, support at $112,000, breaking below may initiate a new decline.
The rebound clears some short positions, funding rates are low, leverage sentiment is not overheated, and bullish strength is limited.
Operational Window
1. Strong reduction signal: Whale ratio 0.977 (whales continue to hold coins, large selling pressure), MVRV 2.24 (price may be overvalued).
2. Conflicting funding situation: net outflow from exchanges (seems like a buying signal), but whales have a stronger willingness to sell, and the rebound may be a “selling trap.”
3. Major forces are distributing, retail investors are taking over, and downward pressure is accumulating.
#比特币流动性危机 $MYX $ETH #美SEC放行流动性质押