Additionally, it is recommended to focus on several key points:
1. Today, the new tariff policy of the United States on Switzerland comes into effect → Need to be wary of rising global risk aversion, which may trigger market volatility.
2. The Bank of England announces its interest rate decision → If it is more dovish than expected, it may briefly boost risk assets.
3. On August 8 at 20:30, the U.S. July CPI data (important) → The core event of this week will directly impact the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision and is crucial for determining the short-term direction of BTC.
Macroeconomic Situation
1. The United States plans to include cryptocurrency assets in 401(K) retirement investment portfolios (expected to take effect on August 8).
2. Progress in the U.S.-Russia summit helps improve risk sentiment, but the People's Bank of China continues to increase gold reserves, and gold prices are strengthening, reflecting that macro-level risk aversion demand remains strong. The positive correlation between BTC and gold is increasing.
3. The bullish macro expectations (favorable for 401k) contrast sharply with the bearish on-chain data (whale distribution). This indicates that 'smart money' may be using favorable macro expectations to distribute chips to retail investors chasing prices. Any rebound should be approached cautiously until whale selling pressure is released.
