On a macro level, Trump recently stated that he will announce a candidate in the coming days to fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board. This move will further enhance his influence within the Fed. Currently, he has the support of three voting members, and if he secures one or two more, future interest rate decisions may undergo a structural shift.
Following the resignation announcement of Fed voting member Kugler, the probability of an interest rate cut in September has quickly risen to 80%. The market generally views this not only as an adjustment in monetary policy but also as a direct reflection of the expanding influence of the 'Trump faction'. Even though macro data has not fully supported easing policies, such as the current 4.2% unemployment rate being at historical lows and inflation not exceeding expectations, internal pressures are quietly accumulating. New York Fed President Williams has also publicly expressed support for a rate cut in September, further confirming this trend.
On-chain capital flows are also showing signs. According to Farside monitoring data, last week, the cumulative net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. reached 642.9 million USD, reflecting a phased wait-and-see sentiment from institutional funds. On the other hand, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced another purchase of 463 Bitcoins, increasing its holdings to 17,595 Bitcoins, demonstrating the confidence of corporate participants in the medium to long-term market.
The Ethereum market is also bustling. SharpLink Gaming has continuously increased its ETH holdings, with the latest reserves reaching 480,204 tokens, an average acquisition cost of 3,045 USD, resulting in a paper profit of 221 million USD.
According to Token Unlocks data, this week, ENA, IMX, MOVE, and others will experience a significant one-time token unlocking, among which:
SPEC will unlock approximately 3.62 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on August 5, accounting for 17.57% of the current circulation, valued at about 1.8 million USD;
ENA will unlock approximately 172 million tokens at 3:00 PM Beijing time on August 5, accounting for 2.70% of the current circulation, valued at about 95.8 million USD;
EIGEN will unlock approximately 1.29 million tokens at 3:00 AM Beijing time on August 6, accounting for 0.40% of the current circulation, valued at about 1.4 million USD;
MAVIA will unlock approximately 11.89 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on August 6, accounting for 23.03% of the current circulation, valued at about 1.9 million USD;
IMX will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on August 8, accounting for 1.30% of the current circulation, valued at about 12.2 million USD;
MOVE will unlock approximately 50 million tokens at 8:00 PM Beijing time on August 9, accounting for 1.89% of the current circulation, valued at about 6.5 million USD;
RENDER will unlock approximately 492,000 tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on August 10, accounting for 0.09% of the current circulation, valued at about 1.7 million USD.
On-chain data shows that yesterday's Bitcoin turnover rate significantly decreased, indicating that player panic did not carry over into the weekend, and price fluctuations subsequently narrowed. The exiting funds mainly came from short-term loss players, while early holders remain cautious, and future trends may be influenced by the sentiment of U.S. stock players.
URPD data shows that 1.512 million Bitcoins have accumulated in the range of 103,500 to 108,500 USD, becoming the first strong support level; 1.625 million Bitcoins have accumulated in the range of 93,500 to 98,500 USD, forming the second strong support level.
In summary, the current price has successfully rebounded to the key gap area below 112,000 USD. According to chip distribution data, this range is located between the previous two major accumulation areas, representing the 'critical zone' of market supply and demand dynamics. If a new round of chip turnover can occur around 112,000 USD, the possibility of challenging high levels again cannot be ruled out; conversely, if support is insufficient and it falls below support, Bitcoin may enter the strong support zone between 103,500-108,500 USD, where nearly 1.512 million Bitcoins are supported, offering strong defensive capabilities. Clearly, for players, this pullback may represent a good opportunity to buy low.