The weekly chart shows that DOGE is returning to a technically dense area. I have been adding positions at lower prices, believing that the risk-reward ratio here is quite attractive, and I will continue to add to my positions as planned.
I. Current Price Situation: Weekly amplitude of 17%, closing precisely at the 'technical triangle' apex
• Opened at 0.24076 → Lowest at 0.18855 → Closed at 0.19945
• Amplitude of 17.15%, comparable to the mid-term adjustments in October 2023 and February 2024, indicating that the selling pressure is not panic-driven dumping, but rather profit-taking.
• The closing price is exactly at the upper edge of the $0.19–0.21 'golden zone,' forming a textbook-style pullback, providing a 'low-resistance launch pad' for subsequent directional choices.
II. Structural Argument: Triple Resonance turns $0.19–0.21 into a 'battleground for bulls and bears'
1. Bull Market Support Zone
Originating from the connections of weekly lows in April 2021, November 2022, and February 2024, each historical touchpoint has resulted in a 25–40% rebound.
2. Downward Trend Line
A long-term downward channel that started from a high of $0.74 in May 2021, breaking upward for the first time on July 16, and is currently validating its effectiveness with a pullback.
3. Trading Volume + On-Chain Data
During the weekly pullback, the spot trading volume has shrunk to 62% of the average volume before the breakout, consistent with the 'healthy characteristic of a shrinking pullback.'
IntoTheBlock shows: There are 4.2 billion DOGE in the on-chain concentration of transactions in the range of $0.19–0.21 (approximately $820 million), forming a natural 'demand wall.'
In the past 72 hours, whale addresses (with >10M DOGE) have net inflows of 780 million, the highest weekly total since March.
III. Perspective from Derivatives: Futures and options simultaneously give a 'bullish' hint
• The funding rate for perpetual contracts has been negative for 48 consecutive hours (-0.012%), with shorts paying interest to longs, indicating that retail investors tend to short, which is a contrarian indicator.
• The DOGE options Skew (25D RR) has dropped to -8%, setting a new six-month low, indicating that the market is willing to pay a higher premium for downside protection, often correlating with a stage bottom.
• Open interest (OI) has decreased by 18% this week, while prices have only fallen by 17%, indicating a 'divergent volume-price' washout, further concentrating positions towards the spot market.
IV. Behavioral Finance: The sentiment thermometer is nearing freezing point
• The Twitter Sentiment Index (TIE) has dropped to 21 (with <30 considered extreme panic), matching the bottom area in February 2024.
• Google Trends shows a week-on-week decline of 45% in the search volume for the keyword 'Dogecoin,' with mainstream community discussions plummeting, in line with the script of 'brewing market conditions when no one is paying attention.'
• The Put/Call Ratio for options has risen to 1.35, indicating a surge in demand for put options, which is a contrarian hint of potential exhaustion of bullish counterparty.
V. Scenario Simulation: Three Scenarios + Corresponding Strategies
VI. Risk Warning
• DOGE remains a highly volatile asset, with daily fluctuations of 10–15% being common, and stop-loss measures must be set.
• On a macro level, if BTC experiences a systemic pullback, the validity of the golden zone will be weakened, and positions should not be too heavy.
Conclusion
On-chain concentrated transactions, net inflow of whales, excessive crowding of shorts in derivatives, and community sentiment at freezing point—four signals push $0.19–0.21 into the 'low-risk, high-reward' area.
As long as the weekly candle can close above this area, DOGE is expected to replicate the previous two rebounds of 25–40%; otherwise, we need to wait for the next level of accumulation area.
The market always rewards those who do their homework in advance.
Continue to pay attention to ILV, SYN, RARE, TREE
