[Bitcoin in a Technical Correction]
After reaching a new all-time high of $123,400 on July 14th, the leading cryptocurrency bitcoin has since weakened to $114K, representing a correction of seven percent. The reasons for a sharp BTCUSD decline include ongoing macroeconomic concerns (inflation, tariffs), technical bearish signals, and liquidation cascades. Despite the risk-off sentiment, I see bitcoin’s recent correction as mostly technical.
[Q4 Seasonality]
We’re quickly approaching September and 2025’s last quarter (Q4), where bitcoin has a historical tendency to perform well. While the third quarter (Q3) has been promising, uplifting bitcoin to an all-time high of $123K, Q4 might turn out to be even more positive.
[Price Discovery]
Amid reaching new ATHs, bitcoin is currently in a price discovery cycle that determines the fair value of the asset through the interaction of supply and demand. The price discovery cycle could potentially bring bitcoin to $200K level in late Q4.
[Binance’s Stablecoin Reserves]
Binance's high stablecoin reserves mirror sidelined capital waiting to be deployed into the market, including allocation to tokens like Binance Coin (BNB). As bitcoin will likely retest its previous ATH level again, selected altcoins will follow it in correlation, creating a fertile environment for an altseason.
[Reflexivity]
Bitcoin has always been characterized by strong reflexivity. Bitcoin's positive cycles are likely to continue for extended time periods, however bitcoin's negative cycles are notorious for their length and depth.
The contemporary reflexivity between bitcoin and new treasury companies will likely support the asset’s price discovery in late Q4. However, due to the altcoin market saturation, it’s unclear whether bitcoin’s reflexivity will also be mirrored to altcoins in a wider sense.
Written by oinonen_t
