1. The U.S. CFTC announces the launch of a new initiative 'Crypto Sprint'
The U.S. CFTC announces the launch of a new initiative 'Crypto Sprint', led by the Office of Innovation, aimed at enhancing regulatory communication and improving market participants' understanding of compliance. The project will focus on areas such as tokenized assets, DeFi, and DAOs, covering key issues such as registration, regulation, and risk management. The CFTC indicated that this initiative is a crucial step in implementing the digital asset regulatory roadmap proposed by the Trump administration and will actively cooperate with the SEC.
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2. BitMine announces it currently holds over 833,000 Ethereum
Tom Lee's BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSE: BMNR) announced it currently holds over 833,000 Ethereum, valued at approximately $2.9 billion, making it the largest ETH reserve entity globally. BMNR has accelerated its accumulation over the past 35 days, aiming to hoard 5% of ETH's circulating supply and generate returns through staking. Investors behind BitMine include Bill Miller III, Cathie Wood, and Peter Thiel's Founders Fund.
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3. QCP: Bitcoin briefly fell below $112,000, the liquidation of leverage may pave the way for a new round of increases
QCP Capital stated in its latest report that Bitcoin dropped again last Friday, briefly falling below $112,000, triggering over $1 billion in leveraged long liquidations, with reasons including weak U.S. non-farm employment data and risk aversion sentiment triggered by new tariffs. SOL and ETH fell nearly 20% and 10% respectively last week, and ETF also saw significant capital outflows. Despite this, this round of adjustment is a leverage washout, and the structural bull market foundation remains intact, while the options market also shows market bets on BTC rebounding to $124,000.
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4. Former UK Chancellor: The UK has fallen behind in the crypto sector
Former UK Chancellor George Osborne criticized the Labour government's conservative stance on cryptocurrency policy, warning that the UK is being left behind by the US, Europe, and Asia. He pointed out that the current crypto revolution is comparable to the 'Big Bang' of finance in the 1980s, and if the UK continues to hesitate, it will miss the historical opportunity to reshape its position as a global financial center. Although the UK has announced proposals for crypto regulation, the market generally believes that progress is slow. Osborne is currently a member of Coinbase's global advisory council.
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5. The far-right French party National Rally is drafting a bill to legislate the use of nuclear power for mining
The far-right French party 'National Rally' is preparing to draft a bill to utilize excess electricity from nuclear power plants for Bitcoin mining. In 2016, the party's presidential candidate Marine Le Pen stated that virtual currencies, including Bitcoin, should be banned, arguing that they are products manipulated by the 'elite' and 'Wall Street banking lobby'; by 2022, she called for stronger regulation; and by 2025, she is now advocating for the direct 'production' of cryptocurrencies.
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6. Wu's commentary on this week's macro indicators and analysis: The U.S. begins to implement 'reciprocal tariffs', the U.S. limits Russia-Ukraine to reach an agreement before August 8.
Summary
Last week, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as expected, U.S. non-farm payrolls sharply declined, and the data for May and June was significantly revised down. This week focus on the implementation of 'reciprocal tariffs' by the U.S. on August 7 and the U.S. hope for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict before August 8.
Last week's review
The Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision (upper limit) at 4.50%, in line with expectations of 4.50%, and the previous value was 4.50%. The FOMC statement noted that economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year, the unemployment rate remains low, and inflation is still slightly high. The committee will continue to reduce its holdings of government bonds, agency bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities. Future policy adjustments will depend on a comprehensive assessment of economic data, changes in outlook, and risk balance. According to Caixin, the voting result of the FOMC meeting was 9 votes in favor and 2 against, marking the largest policy divergence in over 30 years for the Federal Reserve. Before the meeting, the market expected a 60% chance of a rate cut at the September meeting; however, Fed Chairman Powell stated that there would be no premature decisions on monetary policy. The market expectation for a rate cut in September dropped to 45%. When asked about the market focus on the September rate cut outlook, Powell responded that the Fed would make decisions based on various economic data at that time but would not make decisions in advance.
The Bank of Japan maintained interest rates as expected and raised its inflation and economic growth forecasts for this year.
In July, the U.S. ADP employment number was 104,000, the largest increase since March, expected to be 75,000, and the previous value was -33,000.
The U.S. unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, expected 4.20%, previous value 4.10%.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls saw a sharp decline to 73,000 in July, the lowest in 9 months, and significantly below the expected 104,000. The data for May and June was significantly revised down. May's non-farm payrolls were revised down by 125,000 from 144,000 to 19,000; June was revised down by 133,000 from 147,000 to 14,000. After this revision, the increase in employment for May and June decreased by 258,000.
The U.S. core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate preliminary value for the second quarter is 2.5%, expected 2.3%, previous value 3.50%.
The U.S. real GDP annualized quarterly rate preliminary value for the second quarter is 3%, expected 2.4%, previous value -0.50%.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 26 was 218,000, expected 224,000, previous value 217,000.
The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year in June was 2.8%, expected 2.70%, previous value revised from 2.70% to 2.8%.
Key events & indicators this week
August 05
UK, US, France, Germany, Eurozone July services PMI
August 07
The Bank of England announces interest rate decisions, meeting minutes, and monetary policy reports (19:00)
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 2 (10,000) (20:30)
The U.S. begins to implement 'reciprocal tariffs'
August 08
The Bank of Japan publishes a summary of opinions from the July monetary policy meeting (07:05)
The U.S. hopes for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict before August 8
August 09
China's July CPI year-on-year (09:30)