The bullish sentiment from July hasn't dissipated, and August has directly raised the difficulty. The market is echoing with cries of decline, sentiment once went 'full swing', but a closer look at the on-chain data reveals that perhaps this wave of 'pain' is just the prelude to a grand performance. 🎬
Bitcoin's dominance is declining, Ethereum is strongly holding the flag, altcoins are seeing inflows, and leading coins are facing technical turning points... Is it again that familiar 'eve of the altcoin season'?
Today, we're not just focusing on BTC and ETH, but also digging into the real movements of potential coins like Solana, 1INCH, and others, to see which coins are worth a closer look this August, or even to take a position.
BTC is fluctuating, but altcoins are quietly gaining strength? Signals for the start of the altcoin season are emerging.
Is the altcoin season coming? With ETH rising and BTC retreating, will the 'pain' of August bring the 'joy' of September?
Every August, the crypto world always puts on a 'scripted murder mystery' 🎭: altcoins plummet, FUD flies everywhere, and there are wails in the groups... But strangely, this 'painful' August often becomes the starting point for the next rebound.
📉 In 2023 and 2024, altcoins fell by 28% and 40% respectively in August, but immediately followed by surges, with market cap rising by as much as over 140%!
What about 2025? Altcoins have already dropped about 13% from their highs and may still drop another 8-10%, but from experience, this kind of 'retracement' might just be building momentum for the arrival of the altcoin season 💥.
⏳ Is history repeating itself? Altcoins have returned to the 'familiar script'.
Experienced veterans know that every August, altcoins seem to start plummeting as if someone had arranged it.
But after every major drop, in the following months, the market seems to be fueled with enthusiasm, starting a relentless rally. 🔋
Analyst AshCrypto pointed out that this situation has been almost standard over the past two years:
First, a major drop in August.
Then in September or October, a violent rebound begins.
Finally, the market capitalization of altcoins doubles directly.
So will 2025 follow this pattern as well? From the current perspective, it certainly looks quite similar.
ETH rises, BTC retreats? Funds are shifting towards altcoins.
Speaking of the altcoin season, Ethereum (ETH) is always at the center stage. Not only is its technical ecosystem strong, but its market trend also often leads other altcoins.
Recently, many people have boldly called out the target of 'ETH hitting $8000', and Eric Trump has also jumped in to advocate 'buying the dip', even tagging BTC and ETH.
Although Trump's calls are subject to personal opinion, from on-chain and market structure perspectives, ETH is indeed gaining momentum:
📊 The Altseason Index has risen to 45, approaching the boundary line of a 'typical altcoin season' at 75.
🔻 Bitcoin's dominance (BTC Dominance) has also dropped from 65% in July to 62%, indicating that funds are slowly flowing out of BTC and into ETH and other altcoins.
📈 If BTC's dominance continues to decline while ETH remains strong or even rises, then the entire altcoin market will likely ignite next.
What other signals are there in this round of altcoin season?
In addition to the strength of Ethereum, there are also some signals indicating:
Overall, the decline of altcoins has been compressed, many mainstream coins are approaching key support, and the market could rebound at any time;
Funds are gradually positioning in cold wallets, and on-chain data shows that long-term investors are continuously hoarding coins;
Social media discussion heat is rising, especially on X (formerly Twitter), with more and more discussions about the altcoin season.
The ETH/BTC trading pair is starting to strengthen, which has historically been a classic leading signal for the start of the altcoin season.
So, although the altcoin market is still in a correction phase, it is like the calm before the storm; seemingly peaceful, but it is actually building up energy.
✅ It's advisable for investors to respond this way:
💡 Don't chase highs, and don't panic buy; the market is still in a high volatility phase, avoid heavy positions chasing highs or panic selling.
🔍 Focus on leading altcoins like ETH, SOL, MATIC, LINK, these coins are often the detonators that drive the entire market.
🧱 Build positions in batches, take light positions to observe trends; once signs of a breakout are confirmed, you can gradually increase your stakes.
🛡️ Risk control cannot be neglected; stop-loss lines must be set well because not every altcoin season is guaranteed to come; rationality is always the first principle in crypto.
Has Solana dropped below $165, hiding opportunities in the panic?
🔄 The sell-off is over, and Hodlers are starting to act.
SOL has recently dropped to the point of causing some heartache, right? Watching it fall from over $180 to $165, the groups started posting 'SOL is going to crash', 'it's going to break', 'might as well go all in on Dogecoin'... 🐶
BUT! Let's calm down and not rush to cut losses. Some key data tells us: SOL may already be close to a local bottom, and the rebound may not be as far as you think 👇.
💼 Long-term players are quietly increasing their positions; smart money is not panicking but buying back?
Although SOL's recent price drops have made short-term traders shiver, long-term holders (Hodlers) have acted as if nothing has happened.
📈 According to Glassnode's data, since July 30, the net position change of SOL's long-term holdings has skyrocketed by 102%!
This means:
👉 Experienced investors are quietly increasing their holdings, completely devoid of panic sentiment. 👉 More and more SOL is being transferred to cold wallets, in other words: this is a strategic layout, not a run.
Why are they doing this? Because they know that this drop is not a 'crash'—but a potential opportunity to get on board 🚂.
🕳️ Is the 'surrender-type' selling pressure released?
Interestingly, the realized profit/loss ratio (P/L) plummeted to 0.15 on August 2, hitting a new low for nearly a month.
What does this mean? Simply put:
💥 Recently, most people selling SOL have been losing money. Historically, this kind of 'panic selling' usually occurs when the market is close to the bottom.
📉 Once all the panic sellers have sold out, the market's selling pressure will naturally ease. At this time, those who still dare to hold on are often the 'survivors ready to feast' 🐂.
🔍 Technical analysis shows: selling pressure is weakening, and conditions for a rebound are gradually maturing?
Let's take a look at several key chart signals:
1️⃣ The RSI indicator is currently at 41.65, close to the oversold zone. This means the selling pressure is not as strong anymore, and the bears are about to run out of steam.
2️⃣ OBV (On-Balance Volume) is trending towards stability, indicating that selling momentum is decreasing. Although buying momentum is not yet strong, 'selling fatigue' has already appeared.
📉 Although the price is still hovering below $165, if selling pressure continues to weaken, and buyers exert even a little effort, the market could ignite.
🤔 What should we do now? Cut losses or position?
You might be struggling: is it time to cut losses and leave? Or should I take the opportunity to buy the dip?
We suggest taking a moment to analyze calmly:
The $165 level is an important support level; as long as it is not effectively broken, this could be a local bottom.
Don't go all in impulsively; consider building a position in batches and use dollar-cost averaging to mitigate risk.
The mid-term bullish logic remains unchanged; Solana's ecosystem development, NFT activities, and on-chain user activity remain steady and not just empty speculation.
Short-term fluctuations are often just emotional releases; the real profit-makers are never the ones who make decisions when emotions are at their peak.
📣 Summary: Sell in panic, buy in calm; this is the survival rule of seasoned investors.
If you still remember how SOL was disparaged below $10 at the beginning of 2023, but surged above $200, then you won't be scared off by this round of correction.
The crash is not the end, it may just be the starting point for a new round of market action.
When everyone starts to doubt, it is often the most worth focusing on moment.
And the ones who truly benefit from the market are often those players who 'held steady and did not exit' at the bottom.
Is XRP facing a death cross, is it really going to 'cool down'?
XRP's recent performance is also concerning. It has dropped from the July high of $3.65 to around $2.99, a nearly 17% decline. Although there was a 6% rebound in the last 24 hours, overall it is still in a correction channel.
📉 More seriously, on-chain data has shown a 'MVRV death cross', which is a relatively severe bearish signal.
MVRV ratio explanation: current market value compared to the profit/loss level of investors' purchase prices.
When the short-term MVRV crosses below the long-term MVRV, it forms a 'death cross'.
Historically, this kind of crossover often indicates a deeper price adjustment.
However, it is not completely unsolvable:
RSI is close to oversold.
The stochastic RSI has bottomed out.
If it can hold above $2.95 and reclaim the resistance above $3.20, there is a chance to strengthen.
The next few days are crucial for XRP.
Will 1inch rebound after this sharp drop? On-chain data reveals a secret opportunity 🔍.
If you have been following 1inch in the past few weeks, you may have felt that suffocating rollercoaster ride. After peaking at $0.391 in mid-July, it plummeted directly to $0.232 at the beginning of August, a drop of as much as 40.7%! Many people were scared into liquidating their positions, exclaiming 'it's over.'
But wait, things may not be as desperate as you think. In fact, from a larger cycle perspective, the basic structure of 1inch has not been completely destroyed, and there is even a hidden opportunity for a good entry.
🪂 This drop may have returned to the 'golden pit'.
Don't just focus on how much the price has dropped; pay attention to where it has dropped to.
From a technical perspective, 1inch's recent drop has brought the price back to the important resistance level from May, which is around the $0.24 area. In recent days, it has just stopped here—indicating that this is a very 'substantial' support zone.
In other words, this could be a very standard 'support retest' action. For those familiar with the trend, this position can instead be a window for 'buying the dip'.
🤔 Technical indicators are a bit messy, but there are also many interesting clues.
Of course, if you look at some technical indicators, such as the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) at -0.26, it usually indicates that the selling pressure is still considerable; the MACD also shows bearish momentum. None of these are signals for 'immediate lift-off'.
But wait, there are two interesting details worth noting:
The A/D line (Accumulation/Distribution line) has remained stable over the past 10 days—indicating that while there is selling pressure, there has not been a new round of strong selling.
Prices are gradually stabilizing at the bottom and starting to consolidate sideways, no longer plummeting.
The combination of these two factors indicates that selling sentiment is diminishing, and the market may have already started 'changing hands'.
📊 On-chain data has more drama: sentiment is bad, but someone is secretly hoarding coins!
According to Santiment's on-chain data, during this period, the social sentiment around 1inch is indeed bearish, with many people choosing to wait and see or temporarily avoid the spotlight.
But behind the gloomy sentiment, there is one piece of data that stands out: the average coin age is steadily increasing. What does it mean? Simply put:
🔹 Many coins have not been transferred out for trading.
🔹 Lying 'quietly' in wallets.
🔹 This indicates that someone is quietly hoarding coins, preparing to 'ambush'.
This is a classic 'when others are fearful, I am greedy' scenario.
🧩 Is the derivative market 'liquidating'? Is it an opportunity or a trap?
Additionally, the derivative market for 1inch is also changing:
The financing rate was once negative, indicating that the market was generally bearish;
However, it quickly returned to normal;
At the same time, the number of open contracts is also decreasing.
These signs tell us: most short-term speculators have already 'exited', market sentiment is cooling down, and the main players might be opening up space for accumulation.
🚦 The next key observation point: can $0.24 hold?
If the $0.24 support continues to hold and there is a surge in volume or accumulation at the bottom, then that means:
👉 The bears failed to break through key support;
👉 The bulls may start to position for the next upward wave.
At this time, if Bitcoin can stabilize its local bottom around $112,000, the entire market's rebound opportunities will be magnified, and 1inch, as one of the representative coins of DeFi, will naturally benefit.
✅ In a nutshell: 1inch looks dire, but its potential is not dead.
Although from a short-term trend, the 1inch chart may still not look 'pretty', from a technical and on-chain data perspective:
✨ A support retest after a large drop is reasonable;
✨ Long-term capital is quietly flowing back;
✨ Cold sentiment is, conversely, a good opportunity for positioning;
Perhaps this low point hides the next 'doubling point'.
So if you're still hesitating about whether to buy the dip, it might be a good idea to watch the performance around $0.24. If it holds steady, it might be time to consider entering in batches.
In conclusion: is it worth looking at altcoins this August?
Overall, we are at a very delicate moment:
📍 BTC is consolidating sideways, the trend is unclear, but funds are starting to shift. 📍 ETH is relatively strong, becoming a key variable for the start of the altcoin season. 📍 Coins like Solana, XRP, and 1INCH are showing obvious accumulation at low levels. 📍 The altseason indicator is gradually approaching 75, with clear signs of funds sinking.
Thus, this August is not an easy 'take-off market', but indeed a phase suitable for early positioning and waiting for an explosion.
Investment tips & suggested strategies
🔸 Don't blindly go all in, be patient and wait for structural opportunities. 🔸 Pay attention to the key support levels and volume changes of ETH, SOL, XRP, and 1INCH. 🔸 If the altcoin season truly starts, mainstream coins will rise first, followed by smaller coins. 🔸 Capture structural rebound opportunities, and make good stop-loss and take-profit strategies.
Sometimes, the real opportunities lie hidden in the market's 'silent period'.
Declines, panic, pessimism... these are all the 'background music' before the altcoin season.
The real climax may be brewing. 🎧🔥
The crypto world changes quickly, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Learning to enter and exit strategically, protecting your principal, is the key to steady progress and wealth accumulation.
Remember to DYOR, manage your risk well, and wish everyone a smooth sailing in the crypto world! 🌊
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