To be honest, this wave of market trends this year is really making people 'question life'—👀 on one side, it surged wildly, almost touching the $4000 handle every few days; on the other side, the US stock market is also unreasonable, with interest rates rising instead of falling, yet reaching new highs every day, with both the Nasdaq and S&P soaring.
Are we about to take off, or is this the 'last frenzy'? At this moment when everyone feels 'everything is pretty good', it's actually the most critical point we should be wary of.
Today, let's delve into the logic behind ETH's push to $4000, the structural bull market in the US stock market, and the potential risks that may have been overlooked. Not just Ethereum, but Solana, TON, and even Dogecoin are eager to try, with the entire crypto circle floating on a 'pretend interest rate cut' spring breeze.
🎯 Is ETH's surge to $4000 not a dream?
Ethereum has recently truly been 'top-tier', rebounding more than 150% since its April low. Mike Novogratz, the head of Galaxy Digital, has clearly stated: 'By the end of the year, ETH should definitely stand above $4000, no problem.'
He even seems a bit disdainful of the current price fluctuations, directly saying:
"Currently hovering between $3000 and $4000, but my intuition is—by the end of the year, it will definitely lean towards $4000, not $3000."
Not just him, another financial tycoon, Tom Lee from FundStrat, is also optimistic about ETH. He said that based on the ETH/BTC ratio, Ethereum has at least 60% upside potential. If ETH/BTC returns to last year's 0.05 level, the target price would be... $57,000⁉️ (emmm, a bit high, but let's note it down).
The key is—institutions are also starting to scramble for ETH.
📊 The ETF whales are accumulating, but there haven’t been any 'sell-off guys' seen on exchanges.
The spot ETF for ETH attracted $5.3 billion in July, setting a historical high. It's important to note that this is a 'regulated recognized' regular army entering the market.
Currently, ETFs hold a total of 5.84 million ETH, which is a significant portion of the market supply. At the same time, the ETH reserves of crypto native vaults have also risen to 2.73 million, accounting for 2.26% of the supply.
Interestingly, when ETH fell from $3900 back to $3500, there wasn't a massive influx into exchanges to sell off. According to CryptoQuant data, the net flow into exchanges even dropped to its lowest point in two years—this means that everyone isn't thinking of selling, but rather continuing to HODL or even quietly accumulate.
To summarize the current situation: ✅ ETF accumulation ✅ Institutions are optimistic ✅ No one wants to sell ✅ Crypto vaults are experiencing a liquidation-style accumulation. Tell me, if this isn't the prelude to the next wave of a surge, then what is it? 🎺
🌊 But don’t just focus on ETH; beneath the macro surface lies an 'invisible big whale'.
Now the question is: if ETH, BTC, and even the US stock market are all rising, but the Federal Reserve hasn't cut interest rates at all, what exactly is driving this rise?
In other words, the fuel for the bull market isn't just 'liquidity'; so who's pushing the cart?
Since the fourth quarter of 2022, this round of US stock market rises has lasted for 20 months, while the Federal Reserve's interest rates remain firmly at high levels between 5.25% and 5.5%, and the balance sheet reduction is still ongoing, with no apparent improvement in market liquidity. Yet, the S&P and Nasdaq keep hitting historical highs, with the total market capitalization of the 7 giants exceeding $13 trillion.
The familiar taste is gone, but the car is going faster. This is not an illusion, but a brand new market logic:
This bull market relies not on 'more money', but on structure.
🧱 Structural bull market: it's not a 'water buffalo', it's a 'faith bull'.
To summarize, this wave of the bull market is supported by three points:
① Corporate earnings are recovering, especially tech stocks are absurdly strong.
Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Meta continue to expand their profit margins in the AI wave, with soaring profit rates. Although the macro environment hasn't significantly improved, the micro level has stabilized to a point where it's 'unbreakable'.
② Valuation models are being reconstructed, AI is rewriting the pricing system.
No one is talking about traditional indicators like PE, PB anymore; the capital market has shifted to a new 'structural narrative': whoever controls computing power, models, and data is valuable!
③ ETF + institutional clustering creates the 'myth of top support'.
In the US stock market, the seven giants account for over 30% of the S&P 500! In other words, as long as these top tech stocks don't fall, the overall market is hard to collapse. ETFs and passive funds mainly allocate to this part of the leaders, naturally forming a 'stability anchor.'
This is similar to phenomena we see in the crypto space—it's not just about BTC, ETH, and SOL stabilizing the market, but also the L2, meme, and RWA sectors taking turns dancing, right? Structural bull, understand?
🧨 However, the more concentrated the structure, the more concentrated the risks.
Everyone is betting on the rise without any hedging, which means the whole ship is only loaded on one side. Once it capsizes, no one will have a lifeboat.
You will find that the current market is in a state of self-hypnosis:
Inflation hasn't dropped? Luckily, employment is still decent.
No improvement in profits? Tech stocks are still rising.
High valuation? Who still looks at PE? Just look at how fierce AI is.
Low volatility? It indicates stability, allowing for leverage!
So you might notice a very magical phenomenon: logic is no longer cared about; sentiment and structure are the main drivers.
Isn't this just the norm in the crypto space? 📉📈📉📈📈📈📉📉📉 When prices rise, no logic is needed; when they fall, it’s all 'bad news hitting the ground'.
⚠️ The most dangerous time in the market is when no one feels there is danger.
CNBC data shows that over 70% of institutional investors hold an optimistic or neutral-leaning optimistic attitude towards the next six months.
Listen to this, does it sound like a voice from history:
1999: No one questioned the internet bubble;
2007: Almost no one cared about 'subprime mortgages';
2021: Even the owner of your local convenience store was trading Web3;
2025: The valuation and concentration of the AI sector in the US stock market will be even higher than in 2021.
This time, the sentiment is 'collective rationality', not 'collective madness', which is scarier. Because everyone has logic and articulates it well, but no one realizes—we are standing at the 'critical point of consensus'.
The same goes for the crypto space.
ETH, SOL, TON, WIF, RWA concepts... as long as the structure holds, prices can continue to soar. But once someone starts doubting the story, the speed of capital flight could be exponential.
🔮 The 'structural bull market' in the crypto market mirrors
You may not realize it, but this structural bull market also exists in the crypto space, even more extreme.
For example:
ETH is structurally stronger than BTC, and the expectation for the ETH/BTC ratio to rebound has become a consensus.
High-performance chains like Solana, TON, AVAX are seen as 'infrastructure assets' in the AI era.
The memecoin sector (like PEPE, WIF, BONK) relies on sentiment + community structure. As long as sentiment doesn't collapse, no one dares to short it.
The entry of Ethereum ETF + native vault accumulation indicates a fundamental change in market structure, similar to the centralization of ETFs in the US stock market.
In other words: the crypto market is turning into a mini-version of the US stock market—just faster, fiercer, and easier to blow up.
🧩 Final thoughts: Don't miss this market wave, but also don't get too carried away.
ETH might really break through $4000, even challenging higher targets; BTC may continue to oscillate upwards, and the US stock market also has hope of maintaining strength under the AI narrative.
But please remember:
This is not a bull market driven by 'liquidity', but a refined illusion maintained by structure, expectations, and belief.
It can last a long time, but may also suddenly flip due to some inconspicuous variable.
So, don't hesitate to get on board, but please don't forget to buckle up.
Don't forget this golden saying: The most dangerous time in the market is when everyone feels there is no danger.
🧠 To summarize, here are a few keywords:
ETH surging to $4000 is not just a guess; it's the three lines of capital, structure, and ETF surrounding it.
The bull market in US stocks is not driven by liquidity but by structure and consensus.
The risk is not in high prices but in everyone thinking they won't fall.
Interest rate cuts are not a positive signal; they might instead be the funeral bell after a blow-up.
The structural bull market in the crypto space has long mirrored that of US stocks.
The more 'stable' the structure looks, once something goes wrong, it's systemic risk.
Market trends never rise based on logic; they rely on belief. But once no one believes anymore, no amount of logic can save it.
So, earn what you can, but don't sleep too deeply.
Changes in the crypto space are fast, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Learning to strategically enter and exit the market and protect capital is essential for steady progress and wealth and growth.
Remember to DYOR, manage risks, and wish everyone smooth sailing in the crypto space! 🌊
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