The crypto market was hot in July, should we continue to invest in August? 🌕🔥 Ethereum ( #ETH ) skyrocketed, Bitcoin ( #BTC ) fluctuated, #CFX rebounded strongly, with large players, retail investors, institutions, and celebrities taking turns to stir up this market.
You may have already felt that familiar 'bull market preheating' atmosphere is slowly warming up. Whether you are a long-term holder or a new player just entering the market, this August might be one of the key turning points.
Now let's take a look together: what data, phenomena, and signals are reigniting market sentiment? And how should you seize the opportunity?
ETH: July soared, will August still be appealing?
📈 ETF backing, ETH surged nearly 60%.
July's market undoubtedly belonged to Ethereum. ETH rose nearly 60% in a single month, not only achieving the strongest monthly increase in years but also showing strength across multiple on-chain indicators.
These data indicate one thing: this wave of rise is not impulsive but driven by structural funds and steadfast holders.
🐋 What are whales and long-term holders doing?
You can always trust the movements of whales.
Santiment data shows that the frequency of large transactions over $1 million has hit a new high. This means that high-net-worth investors did not retreat during the ETH price correction but instead chose to increase their positions.
Meanwhile, according to Coinalyze data, the open interest of ETH futures hovers around $22.4 billion, while the financing rate remains stable around 0.0049.
Meanwhile, long-term holders who entered at the peaks in 2021 and 2022 are also 'holding on'. The trend of ETH being withdrawn from exchanges and entering cold wallets indicates that everyone is preparing for a longer-term rise.
📊 How does the technical aspect look?
Currently, ETH is trading around $3450. Although short-term momentum has weakened, RSI remains in the neutral zone (around 52), and the red bars on the MACD histogram are gradually shortening, indicating that selling pressure is easing.
In other words: the market is not rushing, waiting for the next catalyst. As long as the overall market does not have unexpected changes, ETH is expected to continue its rebound trend in August.
BTC: Eric Trump says 'buy the dip', is it an opportunity or a risk?
📉 The historical 'crash rate' of BTC in August is not small.
Just a few days ago, BTC suddenly broke through the $117,000 to $120,000 fluctuation range, dropping nearly 4% in just three K-lines, leaving the market in despair.
But if you extend the timeline, you'll find that August has always been a high-risk period for Bitcoin 'crashes'.
In the past 12 years, 7 Augusts have seen declines, with a hit rate of 60%, especially at this node after election years, where market risk appetite often cools down, and the crypto market often follows suit.
🔍 So why do some people still think this time is different?
Don't rush, the key point is coming 👇
Historically, in 2013, 2017, and 2021, BTC recorded double-digit gains in August, and these three years just happen to be—years after halving.
That's right, we are currently in the halving cycle of 2024. If Bitcoin continues to follow past cyclical trends, it is indeed a time point that is easy to 'explode'.
📉 Halving = halved output, reduced supply 📈 If demand can remain unchanged, prices will naturally rise easily.
But the question is, is the current market environment really the same as before? 🧐
💸 ETF capital outflow and weak economic data put pressure on BTC.
First, let's take a look at the attitude of big funds—sorry, the ETF funds are flowing out.
According to the data, approximately $800 million in BTC ETF has flowed out over the past quarter, marking the largest outflow wave this year.
What's more awkward is that there was also a more significant outflow in February (over $1 billion), resulting in BTC quickly correcting and a mess left behind. Does the current script look a bit familiar? 👻
Let’s also look at the macro aspects:
U.S. employment data was below expectations.
The Federal Reserve's attitude is unclear, swinging between hawkish and dovish.
Global trade policies are full of uncertainty.
Simply put: the current market's risk sentiment is not that strong, which is not conducive to high-risk assets 'taking off', and BTC will naturally be affected.
🤔 Is Eric Trump’s call to 'buy the dip' reliable?
Let’s take a look at the past performance of this 'new mouth brother' in the crypto circle:
🗓️ On February 25, he tweeted that BTC could be bottomed out, and at that time BTC indeed rebounded 6.6% from about $90,000.
Sounds good?
BUT! Four days later, BTC suddenly plummeted, with the price diving from nearly $96,000 to $77,000, causing massive leverage liquidations, and millions of contracts went 'to zero'.
In other words, his calls may have short-term reactions, but sustainability is largely a matter of luck. 😅
Now he is 'opening his mouth' again at the beginning of August, but the problem is: ETFs are unresponsive, macro conditions are not supportive, and institutions are retreating. In such an environment, calling for 'buy the dip' feels more like speculation than rational allocation.
🔄 Has $120,000 become Bitcoin's 'ceiling'?
Currently, around $120,000 has become a strong resistance area.
Can't go up, but there's support below, and the market is waiting for direction. But the problem is: there aren't enough 'bullets' for an upward attack.
Unless these positive stimuli occur:
✅ ETF has seen a net inflow again, institutions are coming back to buy ✅ The Federal Reserve has released dovish signals, and interest rate cuts are on the horizon ✅ Risk assets are recovering across the board, and market sentiment is warming up.
Otherwise, it's not easy for BTC to break through and stabilize above $120,000 this month.
🧠 Let's summarize: should we 'buy the dip'?
Let's not focus on what the mouth brother is saying, but on whether the market is giving signals.
🔺 From an opportunity perspective:
Half-year reduction + historical rebound probability in August
If you are a long-term investor, you can accumulate gradually in small positions, betting on a cycle recovery.
🔻 From a risk perspective:
Capital outflow + macro pressure + technical downturn
If you are a short-term player, entering now may lead to back-and-forth 'shakeouts'.
🎯 Suggested strategy:
Don't go all in, control your position, and use only the funds you can afford to test the waters.
Keep an eye on the price reaction near $120,000 to see if there is a volume breakthrough.
If it continues to fall, focus on the two support areas of $108,000 and $96,000.
💬 A line for everyone:
The market will never move according to anyone's call. But smart players can see market sentiment and game structure from every 'mouth cannon'.
So, when Eric Trump says 'buy', you can pay attention, but don’t follow blindly. If there really is an opportunity, the market will tell you itself. 📉📈 If BTC can stabilize and stand on key support, the second half of August may be worth looking forward to.
CFX: Low-level triangular accumulation, is $0.23 a life and death line?
🎯 CFX rose nearly three times in July, can it continue to surge?
If you missed the ETH ETF rally and the fluctuations in BTC, you may have noticed the rise of Conflux (CFX).
CFX soared from $0.07 to $0.28 in July, an increase of up to 297%. However, after July 29, the price retreated to around $0.18, forming a symmetrical triangle consolidation structure.
Symmetrical triangles usually mean: accumulation → breakout, the key is the direction.
Currently, the price of CFX is approaching the end of the pattern, and directional choice will come next.
🧠 Technical analysis: pay attention to these two key price levels.
Support below: $0.18 (lower edge of the triangle)
Resistance above: $0.218 and $0.23 (previous highs)
If CFX can break through $0.23 with volume, the bullish structure will be established, and the target may point to above $0.24.
But if it falls below $0.18, be cautious of a 'false breakout' market, that is, first fall then rebound strongly. This strategy can lead to either a long or short trap, so those trading short-term should pay special attention to risk management.
🔥 Liquidation zone supports directional choice.
According to CoinGlass data, the zone between $0.18-$0.236 is a liquidation concentration area in the coming days. This means that as long as the price breaks through this range, the market will release a large amount of long and short positions, thus accelerating the market.
Tip: If you are a swing trader, this structural breakout is very suitable for setting stop-loss and take-profit strategies, suitable for medium-short term layouts.
✅ Summary: What are the highlights of August's market?
📌 ETH: July laid a strong foundation, whales increased holdings, capital inflow, and ETF backing; the trend still has room to grow. Watch for a breakout around $3500.
📌 BTC: Macro risks suppress short-term gains. If it can hold the support at $115,000, there is a chance to strengthen again. Buying the dip does not mean mindless buying; controlling your position is key.
📌 CFX: The triangular pattern is nearing a breakout. Watch the $0.23 resistance; if it breaks through, it is expected to show independent market movement.
💬 Finally, here are some practical suggestions for my brothers in the circle:
Don't go all in, don’t FOMO, now is a good time to allocate, but don't all in.
Watch the capital flow, on-chain data, and structural patterns, don't just listen to what KOLs say.
Control your emotions and set stop-losses. Although there are many opportunities in August, the volatility is also high.
Combine mainstream coins with potential coins for allocation. ETH is stable, CFX is bouncing, and Bitcoin is under observation.
This August might be a warm-up for the 'next real bull market'.
Don’t blink, the opportunity in the market may be hiding in the next K-line. 😉📈
The crypto world changes quickly, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Learning to enter and exit strategically, protecting your principal, is the only way to move forward steadily, reaping wealth and growth. ✍️
Remember DYOR, manage risk, and wish everyone smooth sailing in the crypto world! 🌊
Like 👍 and share, follow me for more crypto dynamics interpretation! Let's work hard together!