BTC is like a crab in a pressure cooker at 114,500, bulls want to lift the lid to hit 116k, while bears are desperately trying to smother the flame!
Federal Reserve Black Hawk Raid
At 02:30 AM, Federal Reserve Waller stated that "inflation is stubborn or more rate hikes might come", causing the dollar index to jump by 0.43%, and the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield is nearing its yearly high. This sudden blow caused BTC to drop sharply by 600 dollars in five minutes, with leveraged long positions liquidating at 21 million dollars.
Betrayal on the ETF Battlefield
Grayscale GBTC saw a net outflow in one day, setting a new monthly high, while BlackRock IBIT inflows plummeted to 8 million dollars. Even more concerning is that the Swiss private equity sold 26,000 BTC, with whales dumping chips already stationed at the 115k level.
Bears’ Killing Axes:
① Four-hour chart MACD death cross confirmed
② Bollinger Bands opening downwards aggressively, the middle line at 114,000 has turned from support into a noose
③ The deadliest is the false breakout in the early morning, where the market maker first used small orders to sweep away stop losses for short positions at 114,800, then countered with 30,000 BTC to crash the market
Bulls’ Lifeline:
① On-chain monitoring detected 3 new addresses accumulating 41,200 BTC, with a cost basis at 113,800
② USDT premium rate suddenly surged to 7.32%
My bloody lesson this morning: the long position at 114,200 was instantly breached, I cut losses at 113,950 and reversed to a short position to recover, the market maker specializes in killing those who carve a boat to seek a sword!
Today’s Three Scenarios for Life and Death
Rocket Launch Script
Trigger conditions: ADP < 160,000 + Grayscale stops outflows
Path: Violently break through 115k and directly hit 116,500
Evidence: Binance quarterly contract funding rate reached an extreme value of -0.23%
Avalanche Tragedy Script
Nuclear button: ADP > 220,000 + U.S. Treasury yield breaks 4.3%
Slaughter path: Break through 113,500 to trigger institutional program selling, 111,200 is the graveyard for longs
Alarm: Deribit has seen 112k put option open interest triple
Turbulent Lingering Death
Death zone: 113,800-114,800 repeatedly drawing doors
Market maker’s trick: Creating $300 false volatility every hour to entice orders
Bloody data: Today has already seen liquidations of 107 million dollars
Retail Escape Pod Manual
Short-term Double Sword Flow
Current price 114,300 open short Stop loss 114,800
Place a buy back at 113,600 Stop loss 113,100
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