Market sentiment on Sunday is much better than on Saturday. Bitcoin has no systemic risk; the core issue is still the game between Trump and Powell over monetary policy. Trump now holds three votes on the committee, combined with Kugler's resignation and Williams' defection, the expectation for a rate cut in September has risen to 89.1%.
From the data, inflation still has pressure, but no signs of recession have appeared, and the unemployment rate is within the warning line. Tariff risks have temporarily eased, and market sentiment is stabilizing.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 49,886 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $132 million, long positions liquidated $27.9162 million, and short positions liquidated $104 million.
Market review:
On Sunday morning, after the market spike, it stopped falling, currently rebounding by 3000 dollars but is temporarily suppressed by the interval of 114500-115000. This is consistent with the demand for a pullback to this interval mentioned in the weekend's internal analysis, which was touched directly in Monday's early session.
Regarding Ethereum, compared to yesterday's early morning spike of 3353.4, it has rebounded by 200 dollars. Now we are in a market phase where Bitcoin fluctuates by three to five thousand dollars a day, and Ethereum fluctuates by one to two hundred dollars!
First, today's operating suggestions: there is a demand for pullbacks during the day, providing opportunities for wave entry. According to Monday's routine, a deep squat pullback in the evening could be an opportunity to go long. But do not chase the rise, mainly focus on buying in batches at lower prices.
BTC
The current key interval for Bitcoin is 113,500-115,000. This week, pay close attention to the gains and losses in this interval, viewing it as a dividing line for bulls and bears. The vacuum interval of 112,000-116,411 has been filled after a pullback, and the current retracement lays the foundation for future trends, favorable for future breakthroughs.
Key support levels: 111,950, 109,500, 107,500; resistance levels: 116,411, 119,200;
ETH
Let me tell you an amazing statistic: Last week, the total ETH spot transactions across the network exceeded 25 million pieces, with a transaction amount of $90 billion; BTC spot transactions amounted to 820,000 pieces, with a transaction amount of about $95 billion. Therefore, the more than 500,000 ETH currently queued for unlocking in Lido is not significant, and the selling pressure is only about $2 billion, the market should be able to handle it.
Ethereum is currently at the end of a major cyclical correction, overall forming a typical flag-shaped consolidation, with key intervals at 3,425-3,486. It has not broken the support at 3,339-3,354 over the weekend, temporarily stabilizing and following BTC's trend. If it fails to break higher again, it may continue to probe downward, with ultimate support at 3200.
Support levels: 3,339-3,354, 3,100; resistance levels: 3,723, 3,892;
Altcoin
Currently, most altcoins have fallen back to the starting point from the end of June, with gains over the past month reaching zero. Only a few strong coins like $ENA, $PENGU, and $HOME have performed outstandingly. After a week of adjustment, today's daily line shows a buying signal; focus on strong coins like $TUT, $GNS, $KERNEL, $THE, $VIC.
Regarding why there is no season of all coins flying together!
The viewpoint I agree with: the crazy altcoin season when 'all coins fly together' was due to two reasons: first, there were valuable landing projects with small market values, and the project parties focused on doing things without the atmosphere of cutting leeks; second, the cyclical trend pushed, but history will not simply repeat itself.
In this round, institutions only crazily bought BTC at first, and by extension bought ETH, causing large-cap altcoins to fall all the way down; until ETH rebounded from $1,400, quality altcoins could finally stabilize.
My opinion: In the future, the market value of BTC and ETH will steadily grow, and quality leading altcoins will closely follow, rising during the market FOMO phase, but difficult to see 5-10 times growth, expectations are only 2-3 times, 'all coins flying together' will not happen again.
All of this requires a significant liquidity push. Although liquidity has not yet been released, the market has anticipated it in advance. Many positions are built in preparation for a large liquidity release—this is the consensus of the economic cycle.
Last: Pump Coin Overview
$troll is tough, pushed to 30m call.
$mask's divination looks average, the bottom is rising, only breaking the previous high can confirm the third wave, with 20m pressure to determine if it's a third wave, not planning to trade.
$chillhouse has a poor holding experience; breaking through 25m means going higher, and it has been in fluctuation 85% of the time. Non-diamond hands should not hold.
$usduc has a good narrative with Trump, the market is hard, but buying too much will get washed out.
$wizard troll and wizard at the same time, quite tough, not breaking 2m.
$Tokabu has hardly been mentioned in the Chinese community, a one-sided cash cow, can keep going as long as it holds 10m.
$neet is lying flat, there are quite a few people mentioning this coin, it has a big swing style, with 7m support.
$housecoin breaking through the downtrend line has a rebound but not a reversal.
