Market fluctuations are frequent, and data often triggers volatility.
Today's non-manufacturing PMI, combined with last week's non-farm data, has intensified concerns about a downturn in the U.S. economy.
The current core struggle lies between Trump and the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy and tariffs: Kuger’s departure gives Trump more maneuvering space, and he stated that he would nominate a candidate this weekend, possibly for next year’s Federal Reserve Chair.
Despite the risks to the economy, the market hopes that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon to avoid a recession, and internal conflicts within the Federal Reserve have also raised expectations, with a probability of over 91% for a rate cut in September.
However, Kuger’s successor may not be able to participate in the September interest rate meeting, possibly joining in October at the earliest; the impact of tariff issues is relatively small.
