Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $3.7 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.2%, valued at $2.26 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $266.9 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.65%, of which USDT accounts for 61.67%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small portion increased while most decreased, including: TON with a 7-day increase of 13.64%, ZORA with a 7-day increase of 40.39%, ZBCN with a 7-day increase of 26.02%, USELESS with a 7-day decrease of 31.66%, and FARTCOIN with a 7-day decrease of 31.79%.
This week, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US: $642.9 million; the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs in the US: $155 million.
Market Forecast (August 4 - August 8):
This week, the stablecoin experienced minor issuance, US Ethereum spot ETFs continued to see net inflows, while Bitcoin spot ETFs saw significant net outflows, and altcoins experienced certain corrections. The RSI index is at 36, indicating weakness. The Fear & Greed Index is at 54 (lower than last week).
On August 1, US non-farm employment data shocked the market, with July employment figures far below expectations, increasing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 77.7%. There are positive expectations for two rate cuts this year, but caution is needed regarding market correction risks in August.
BTC: If it falls below $115,000, it may test $112,000 support; if it breaks above $120,000, then look for $125,000.
ETH: Support at $3,500, upward target at $4,000.
Understanding Now
Weekly Major Events Recap
1. On July 29, Bloomberg reported that Coinbase is in advanced negotiations to acquire the Indian cryptocurrency trading platform CoinDCX;
2. On July 31, according to strategicethreserve data, Bitmine, Sharplink Gaming, and The Ether Machine each hold more ETH than the Ethereum Foundation;
3. On July 31, Stable completed $28 million in seed round financing, with Bitfinex and Hack VC as co-lead investors;
4. On August 1, Coinbase plans to introduce tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and early token sales to create a 'comprehensive trading platform';
5. On August 1, according to Reuters, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched the Project Crypto initiative, aimed at modernizing securities regulations and enabling on-chain operation in the US financial markets;
6. Ethereum ETFs have seen 20 consecutive days of net inflow, totaling $5.4 billion, a record;
7. The SEC approved the ETF physical redemption mechanism, allowing BTC/ETH to be directly exchanged for ETF shares;
8. Trump's tariff policy took effect on August 1, and the market is paying attention to capital flows in emerging markets.
Macroeconomics
1. On July 31, the Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, in line with market expectations;
2. On July 31, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fifth consecutive time. The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations;
3. On August 1, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the non-farm payrolls for May were revised from 144,000 to 19,000; the non-farm payrolls for June were revised from 147,000 to 14,000;
4. On August 1, the US adjusted non-farm employment population for July was 73,000, while the expectation was 110,000.
ETF
According to statistics, from July 28 to August 1, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US: $642.9 million; as of August 1, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.665 billion, currently holding $20.503 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $83.781 billion. The total market value of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US is: $147.994 billion.
The net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs in the US: $155 million.
Envisioning the Future
Event Preview
1. The Vietnam Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence Summit CONVICTION 2025 will be held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam from August 9 to 10, 2025;
2. Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held in Bali, Indonesia from August 21 to 22;
3. WebX Asia 2025 will be held in Tokyo, Japan from August 25 to 26, 2025;
4. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre from August 28 to 29.
Important Events
1. On August 7 at 19:00, the UK announced the central bank interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report;
2. On August 7 at 20:30, the US announced the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 2 (in ten thousand);
3. On August 8 at 20:30, Canada will announce July employment figures (in ten thousand);
4. Brazilian legislators are preparing to debate a new cryptocurrency tax proposal put forward by President Lula, which will impose a fixed fee of 17.5% on all transactions, eliminating the income tax exemption for small trading businesses compared to the old tax system, and targeting decentralized finance activities through temporary measures effective in June. The deadline for this decision is October 8; if the measure is not approved by this date, it will expire.
Token Unlocking
1. IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 8.63 million tokens on August 5, worth approximately $1.56 million, accounting for 0.22% of the circulating supply;
2. EIGEN (EigenLayer) will unlock 1.29 million tokens on August 6, worth approximately $1.43 million, accounting for 0.41% of the circulating supply;
3. IMX (Immutable) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on August 8, worth approximately $12.31 million, accounting for 1.3% of the circulating supply;
4. MOVE (Movement) will unlock 50 million tokens on August 9, worth approximately $6.51 million, accounting for 1.92% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional analysis into your practical weapon. We analyze market trends for you through (weekly insights) and (in-depth research reports); leveraging our exclusive column (Hotcoin Selection) (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets and reduce trial and error costs. Every week, our researchers will also interpret hot topics and predict trends face-to-face with you through live broadcasts. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors understand these risks fully and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
X: x.com/Hotcoin_Academy
Mail: [email protected]
