1, Phase 1: 2008-2013 - The Primitive Era
- #Bitcoin created by a small group of cypherpunks against the centralized monetary system. The first exchange, GPU mining, and early altcoins like Litecoin and Namecoin emerged. This is the phase of "think big, act small", with nothing resembling a market.
2, Phase 2: 2014-2016 - Technology Hype
- Bear market + negative impressions of Bitcoin created the wave of "Blockchain not Bitcoin". Major corporations began exploring blockchain technology. Ethereum launched and laid the foundation for smart contracts. The mindset shifted from currency to infrastructure platform.
3, Phase 3: 2017 - ICO and Retail First FOMO
- Ethereum brought ICOs into the mainstream. The rise of a multitude of junk projects, accompanied by the first wave of retail FOMO. Bitcoin $BTC peaked near $20k - but most investors were still inexperienced retail.
4, Phase 4: 2018-2019 - Infrastructure Phase
- After the bubble burst, a new generation of builders emerged: Fireblocks, Anchorage, Bitwise, Jump Trading... The infrastructure components of the market were built. If 2017 was the wild west, then 2019 was the time to lay the foundation for digital finance.
5, Phase 5: 2020-2021 - Bull Run and Real Explosion
- COVID, QE and negative interest rates caused investors to pour money into Bitcoin. DeFi Summer, stablecoins, NFTs, and L1 exploded. This is the first time crypto has a strong internal ecosystem that does not depend on external factors.
6, Phase 6: 2022-2023 - Collapse & Restructuring
- FTX, Terra, BlockFi, Celsius... successively collapsed, triggering a domino effect across the industry. But it is precisely in the crisis that new ideas emerge: restaking, RWA, data availability, modular chain. The ecosystem shifts from speculative to infra-driven.
7, Phase 7: 2024 - Institutionalization
- SEC approves BTC & ETH ETFs. BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity enter the battlefield. Politicians officially mention crypto as a key policy piece. Tokenization of real assets begins to make sense. Crypto companies that survived the previous cycle enter the IPO stage.
8, Phase 8: 2025 and beyond - Legalization & Macroeconomic Integration
- Crypto is no longer outside the system but begins to integrate. Clear legal framework. Companies hold crypto as reserve assets. Sovereign adoption starts. Tokenization becomes a long-term story rather than just a narrative.
9, Conclusion
- The market is transitioning from the narrative of "discontinuity and speculation" to "continuous flow and normalization", the major pieces are almost filled with the big players, and the gap for smaller projects to rise to become giants is very limited.
- Projects with compliant products that fit the market and users, with the potential for "IPO or" ETFs, and long-term token models... still have growth potential in the near future.
- The mindset for choosing projects is very different from 2021.
