Steven_Research

Ethereum Staking Withdraws Over 2 Billion USD - Liquidity Test

1. Yesterday's Adjustment Phase Developments

- As of the morning of July 24, 2025, the Ethereum ecosystem is witnessing a liquidity panic

- Validators are withdrawing from the Ethereum staking system, with the waiting list to withdraw ETH from validators exceeding 625,000 ETH, equivalent to 2.3 billion USD

- The unstake waiting time extends to 18–23 days

- WETH borrowing interest on Aave skyrocketed above 10%, due to a large amount of ETH being withdrawn

=> This is the most significant volatility since the Terra-Luna collapse in 2022, creating a ripple effect throughout the entire DeFi ecosystem.

2. Causes

- The source of the volatility stems from an action by Justin Sun, who reportedly withdrew 1.7 billion USD in ETH from Aave, while Abraxas Capital also withdrew 115 million USD, creating a ripple effect,...

- This caused borrowing interest rates to spike and triggered a contagion effect
$stETH slightly lost its peg ~0.3% (due to a sell-off)

- Leveraged stETH/ETH positions (popular in DeFi) were liquidated en masse

=> Widespread panic sentiment led to a continued rise in unstake flows

3. Consequences for the market

- The massive withdrawal chain from Aave faces pressure from a multitude of investors withdrawing ETH from staking contracts

- This event raises questions about the sustainability of DeFi in the face of concentrated actions from “whales” like Justin Sun, or the delays from Oracles leading to price discrepancies, and the increase in waiting times causing delays in staking withdrawals

- However, on the other hand, it also creates some positive signals, as there is still consistent buying from large institutions, demonstrating that the demand for $ETH is not solely within DeFi. Additionally, some validators are withdrawing and participating in restaking activities on Eigen Layer and other LRTs, rather than exiting entirely.

UPDATE ON FUNDS $BTC

1. Diagram “State Reserve Race”

- 49 bills related to states or the federal government reserving Bitcoin/digital assets have been proposed.

- Only 3 bills have been enacted - implying a success rate of ~6%.

- Up to 34 bills have failed - reflecting that political reactions are still cautious or facing legal barriers.

- There are still 12 bills hanging in steps such as Chamber 1 => Committee 2 => Chamber 2.

=> The U.S. is still in a testing phase regarding the story of Bitcoin becoming a “reserve asset” at the state/national level.

=> The pace is slow but with spreading momentum, it may take many years for enough states to “nod” to create a network effect.

2. Corporate Bitcoin Adoption Q2/2025

- Up to 847K #BTC in the hands of public companies - equivalent to ~4% of total BTC supply.

- Valued at 91 billion USD (much larger than the awakened whale wallet from the day before).

- There are 125 companies holding $BTC => an increase of 58% compared to the previous quarter, meaning 46 new companies have added BTC to their balance sheets.

- @Strategy (Michael Saylor) still holds the majority (597,325 BTC).

- New names include: Twenty One (37,230 BTC), Metaplanet (13,350 BTC - notable in Tokyo).

- In Q2 alone, 159,107 BTC were purchased - a strong increase compared to previous quarters.

=> Bitcoin is repositioning from a speculative asset to a reserve asset; this process will not be quick, businesses are ahead, policies and the Government are following, and in the long term, there is still potential for further development.

#steven_research

What is DCA? - Many people often say that DCA means buying whenever the price drops, but that's only half right. If you understand this method better, you will have a more suitable investment plan.

DCA - Dollar cost averaging is a method of accumulation investment (the term originates from the book by Benjamin Graham). Applied to the crypto market, there are 3 ways:

1- Buy averaging over time, meaning you will buy a fixed amount of assets over a fixed period, for example, buying $100 of BTC every week for many years, buying without looking at the price. The overall average will still be at a good price range (this theory is also popular in the stock market, it can be considered a way of saving combined with investing).

2- Average by price range. That is, whenever it drops by a certain percentage, you will buy a predetermined amount, so the average purchase price will gradually decrease, aiming to have the best possible position.

3- Combine these two methods. Buy regularly over time within a certain price range. Once you surpass this price range, stop buying.

Many people do not understand the principle and call buying different orders DCA, but that is not entirely correct. It can lead to buying too much in overbought areas (if you keep buying at the peak, you will lose a good position) or buying too little in good price areas.

The goal of DCA is to find a good position or accumulate as much "inventory" as possible for a limited amount of capital. Because no one can buy at the bottom and sell at the top.

Finally: The method created is a tool to use, so everyone should balance its application to suit themselves, ensuring good capital management and a good position. It should not be too mechanical.

I have bought DCA $BNB to hold.

#steven_research

ETH AND TRON TO WAR - TETHER LAUNCHING ITS OWN CHAIN

Tether has launched Stable, a new Layer 1 blockchain optimized for transactions $USDT , addressing issues such as high fees and slow payment times on current networks.

Stable uses #USDT as the native gas token and is EVM compatible to simplify payments and dApp development.

Having characteristics similar to a sidechain, Stable is capable of cross-chain interaction through USDT0 technology and LayerZero, positioning #Stable to compete with projects like Plasma.

Stable employs a consensus mechanism called StableBFT (with block times under one second) and focuses on optimizing transaction execution.

*Mentioned for its superior features for stablecoins, but lacking clarity on the consensus mechanism, raising reasonable concerns about decentralization.

- This chain uses $USDT as the gas fee, and there are no plans for launching a separate token for the chain.

- I still have many questions about the decentralization and functioning of this chain, but it is clear that the launch of the chain will threaten the market share of existing chains.

#steven_research

Polymarket is proving its place - Is there an airdrop?

The number of users remains stable after the explosion of the US Presidential election event, currently Polymarket is the destination for many events such as the FED reducing interest rates, the war in the Middle East, or sporting events,...

1. From political betting to a new 'liquidity sink'

- Polymarket started in 2020 with $4M Seed from Polychain and a team of crypto angels.

- Back then, most still viewed the prediction market segment as a niche 'toy'.

- But in 2024-2025: volume exploded to over $2 billion/month, active traders peaked at 400k, turning it into a massive macro betting platform - everyone has to take notice.

2. Massive funding rounds

- Seed 2020: $4M

- Series A (2024): $25M, Naval Ravikan,...

- Series B (5/2024): $45M, Founders Fund + Vitalik Buterin involved

- Series C (4/10/2024): $90.9M, this round is not mentioned on various pages, but Crunchbase-type trackers do list it

- Most recent round (6/2025): Leak Bloomberg: $200M, valuation ~$1B.

3. On-chain data

- Looking at Polymarket's Dune, there is a Daily volume consistently >30M, stable active traders at 20-40k/day.

- Monthly volume is stable, Polymarket's volume closely follows the US election cycle, rate cuts, geopolitics… every hot narrative period sees a spike

4. Personal opinion on airdrop

- Personally, I don't think Polymarket could have an airdrop like Hyperliquid, because the backing team involvement and operational methods are completely different

- It feels like @Polymarket wants to become a big company in the prediction space, integrating traditional factors, rather than leaning towards a crypto project and issuing a token

- It can be seen as a decentralized place for crowd sentiment, potentially utilizing Polymarket's data to read macro sentiment

#steven_research

KHI $BTC HISTORICAL LOW - MARKET LIQUIDITY IS AT THE BOTTOM

*Liquidity level hits historical low:

- Currently, liquidity has returned to the level equivalent to the end of 2022, right after the FTX collapse, an extremely low threshold signaling that capital has been withdrawn or is on the sidelines observing.

*The network is still growing, despite poor liquidity.

- Network Growth has decreased from its peak but still maintains the 48 range, meaning users/on-chain activity is still present.

*A different context, but the old logic still holds true.

- Stablecoin regulation is clearer, Bitcoin ETF has pulled a large amount #BTC out of exchanges, the context of higher interest rates, big players are defending tightly.

- However, the essence of the crypto market remains unchanged: as long as there are signals for liquidity to return, prices will react by inertia.

=> When the market runs out of liquidity, all bad news has been released, it is the time of lowest systemic risk - that is a good price range for cautious DCA.

=> Don’t expect to catch the absolute bottom, but rather to stagger your capital, split positions, prioritize foundational coins (BTC, ETH, strong L1).

*Personal opinion: BTC cannot carry on alone forever. When BTC stops running, altcoins will continue to run.

#steven_research

Update Heatmap

*Currently $BTC is fluctuating in the 108K$ range, the wallet groups exhibit chaotic behavior.

- Wallet 1–10 #BTC : Continuously distributing (dark red) from mid-May until now. This is a small retail group actively taking profits.

- Wallet 10–100 BTC: Strong accumulation (dark green), indicating buying power from 'small whales', usually medium-sized funds or early whales restructuring their wallets.

- Wallets <1 BTC and >10K BTC: show noise signals, alternating accumulation & distribution, not forming a clear trend.

- Both the 100–1K and 1K–10K BTC groups: mixed signals, reflecting hesitation, not actively buying but also not selling strongly.

*Overall Accumulation Trend Score has strongly recovered from the bottom of 0.25 (around April) to 0.57.

=> This reflects that capital is returning to the market after the correction phase, but consensus has not been reached among the groups.

=> This is not a signal of widespread distribution, but a stage where the market is restructuring capital flows.

=> The 1K-10K wallet groups have actively accumulated from the price range below 100K and still show no strong signs of distribution.

=> The current phase is most similar to Q1/2021: when prices had risen sharply, some small retail groups withdrew, but large capital still actively accumulated.

#steven_research

Seeing Binance list several projects continuously through the Hodler Airdrop program $NEWT $SAHARA makes me feel quite happy and familiar, like the continuous launchpool events last year. Anyway, I'm swapping to $BNB right away, even though it's a small amount, every little bit counts. Thanks, Binance 🤝

The likelihood of the FOMC cutting interest rates in September has surged to 79%

Build & Build Corporation aims for Nasdaq - raising 100 million USD to establish a reserve fund $BNB

Originating from Coral Capital Holdings, an investment consulting firm in the USA established in 2019, specializing in advising investments in medium and small companies

- Currently, their former executives, including Patrick Horsman, Joshua Kruger, and Johnathan Pasch, have established a new entity named "Build & Build Corporation" with the goal of raising 100 million USD to accumulate token #BNB , following the model of Michael Saylor at MicroStrategy.

- Build & Build Corporation aims to list on #Nasdaq through a reverse buyback transaction, expected in the near future after completing the capital raise by June 2025.

- @CZ (former CEO @Binance) has called this a "BNB 'microstrategy'" but emphasized that $BNB is the native currency of the public blockchain, not directly linked to Binance Holdings Ltd or the Binance exchange. He asserts that there will be many companies around the world holding BNB, but none that CZ is directly involved with.

- This is a statement about the value of BNB as well as BNB Chain, that it does not depend on an organization and its value has been recognized even without the participation of Binance or CZ

#steven_research

Long term holders of $BTC continue to hold and do not sell. Meanwhile, short term holders tend to sell at a loss.

"Historically, bursts of #bitcoin tend to occur when market attention fades, making the current silence likely a precursor to the next big move."

#steven_research

$LISTA

The interest rate at the Swiss National Bank has fallen to 0%, and the possibility of going negative like in 2021 remains open, meaning at that time users depositing money in the bank would have to pay extra money instead of earning interest.

On this side, China is still in a phase of monetary easing, injecting money strongly through reverse repo to stabilize the financial system.

Recently, the PoBC announced the injection of 161.2 billion CNY through reverse repo, showing a priority for stimulating the economy over controlling inflation.

#steven_research

Bitcoin's Demand Momentum is the worst in months

Short-term investors (STH) have sold approximately 800,000 since May 27, 2025.

The chart shows the deepest negative cut since 2020, even deeper than during the LUNA/FTX collapse in 2022.

New spot demand from retail and institutions is "drying up" => very few people are willing to catch the bottom right now

- Selling pressure from STH is still high if the price breaks the support zone of $93k–94k.

- Macroeconomic volatility may prolong negative sentiment for several weeks.

*If history repeats itself, this is not the time to sell, but the time to:

- Observe movements from LTH.

- Wait for DCA (dollar-cost averaging) at the macro support zone.

- Monitor on-chain: cold wallets, stablecoin flows, and funding rates on futures.

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TEXAS IS THE 3RD STATE THROUGH RESERVE $BTC

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has signed Senate Bill 21 (SB 21) into law, establishing the Texas Strategic Reserve Fund #bitcoin .

- This makes Texas the third state in the United States (after Arizona and New Hampshire) to adopt a state-managed Bitcoin reserve fund.

- The details of SB 21, also known as the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Investment Act, allow the Texas Comptroller to manage a special fund to invest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization over 500 billion USD.

- Currently, only Bitcoin meets this criterion. The fund may be financed through a budget provided by the legislature, specialized revenue sources, and investment profits, although the provision for private donations was removed in the final version.

#steven_research