Expectations for the Fed to cut rates in September have surged, creating potential momentum for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in the short term.
The market is closely watching the Fed's actions following weak labor signals, along with the increasingly clear possibility of rate cuts – this could be a key factor directly affecting BTC prices in the near future.
MAIN CONTENT
Expectations for the Fed to cut rates in September rose to 80% following weak labor indicators.
BTC has strong fluctuations, adjusting alongside profit-taking and the impact of U.S. labor data.
The market forecasts a short-term accumulation phase before establishing a new uptrend.
Expectations for the Fed to cut rates in September have surged: What are the reasons?
The context of macroeconomic instability strongly impacts global financial markets; however, the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates in September has surged following new labor information from the U.S.
After the meeting on July 31, the Fed maintained a hawkish stance, causing the likelihood of a rate cut in September to drop to 60%. However, on August 1, this probability increased back to 80% thanks to unexpectedly weak labor data – a factor that could support a short-term recovery in BTC prices.
Expectations for a rate cut reaching 80% in September is the market's adjustment following the weak labor report, reflecting a quick expectation for looser monetary policy.
CME Fed Watch, August 2025
Despite volatility, BTC remains influenced by the Fed's monetary policy decisions, clearly reflected in price fluctuations whenever interest rate information is released.
U.S. labor data for July has come as a big surprise: What impact does it have on the Fed and Bitcoin?
The weak labor report for July is seen as an important catalyst driving expectations for the Fed to loosen policy.
In July, the U.S. only created 73K jobs, significantly lower than the forecast of 106K. More notably, the non-farm payroll (NFP) data for May was revised down to just 19K (from 144K), and for June down to 14K (from 133K). This is the largest downward adjustment in many years, reflecting negative signs for the health of the U.S. labor market.
New data on non-farm payrolls is very cautious, almost reiterating the situation that led the Fed to cut rates sharply in September 2024, resulting in a subsequent explosive increase in the cryptocurrency market.
ZeroHedge, August 2025
In fact, it is the weakness in labor markets and adjustments to these indicators that often signal the Fed's consideration of rate cuts to support growth, which previously drove BTC's price surge.
Will expectations for a rate cut create a recovery wave for Bitcoin?
The Fed's consideration of rate cuts has previously helped Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies flourish, particularly during times when the Fed signals a policy reversal.
Market analysis experts state that the main driver for capital returning to the market will come from monetary policy decisions, where interest rate movements play a key role. History shows that each time the Fed loosens policy, BTC and risk markets often surge.
According to data from CME Fed Watch recorded on August 1, the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates in September is priced by the market at up to 80%. Traders are betting on a cut of 25 basis points (bps) amid a struggling labor market.
This scenario occurred in September 2024 when the Fed unexpectedly cut rates by 50 bps after a labor adjustment, creating a significant boost for BTC, with a substantial increase compared to other assets.
ZeroHedge Report, August 2025
Based on historical indicators, BTC and the overall cryptocurrency market's growth outlook may be bolstered when the Fed implements policy adjustments that align with investor expectations.
Actual BTC price movements: Why does the price still adjust despite expectations of rising interest rates?
Despite strong expectations for the Fed to cut rates, BTC prices still dropped by 2% to $112,700, reflecting widespread profit-taking sentiment across the U.S. financial market on August 2.
CEO of FundStrat, Tom Lee, stated that price adjustments are entirely normal during rapid growth phases – and represent a healthy accumulation before the next increase. This move is not much different from previous short-term market corrections.
A slight adjustment of BTC is necessary for the market to regain balance before entering a new uptrend, while also helping to filter out short-term noise signals.
Tom Lee, CEO of FundStrat, August 2025
On the contrary, Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, has reduced his long positions in ETH and Ethena (ENA), while warning that the tax packages from the U.S. government under Donald Trump may continue to pressure the market in Q3.
The U.S. tax bill will take effect in Q3 – at least the market believes so, especially after the recent NFP labor data release. No major economy is able to inject credit fast enough to pull nominal GDP up, so BTC may test the $100,000 mark, ETH may test $3,000.
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, August 2025
The combined impact of cautious sentiment, reduced capital inflow from U.S. investors, and profit-taking pressure may cause BTC prices to fluctuate within the accumulation zone before a new uptrend emerges.
What on-chain indicators signal accumulation phases: What signals for investors?
Data analytics organizations like CryptoQuant report that the cryptocurrency market is entering a short-term 'cooling' phase after the third profit-taking wave.
According to the latest report from CryptoQuant, demand from U.S. investors is weakening, with capital inflow into the market decreasing, causing BTC to revert to an accumulation state instead of breaking through strong resistance areas in the short term.
After the recent profit-taking wave, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum may enter an accumulation trend before conquering higher peaks in the future.
CryptoQuant Insights, August 2025
History shows that each accumulation phase like this often serves as a 'stepping stone' for a new uptrend, especially when macro factors shift positively.
Updated schedule of U.S. economic data: Which events will directly impact BTC in August – September?
The next price developments of BTC and cryptocurrencies will depend on a series of events announcing U.S. economic data and updates on labor and inflation in the upcoming August.
In the week from August 7 to 12, 2025, reports on U.S. labor and inflation will continue to have significant impacts on the Fed's rate cut expectations, thereby directly affecting the BTC price trend across the market.
Experts recommend that investors pay special attention to these figures to adjust their investment strategies, especially in the context that the cryptocurrency market is still sensitive to global macroeconomic fluctuations.
Comparing the impact of Fed rate cuts on BTC and the cryptocurrency market
History shows that each time the Fed implements large-scale rate cuts, the cryptocurrency market often reacts positively, with notable increases in capital flow and investment sentiment.
Year Rate Cut Details BTC Growth Notes 2020 Fed cut a total of 150 bps from March BTC rose from $4,000 to over $10,000 in 2020 Strongly impacted by the pandemic 2024 Fed unexpectedly cut 50 bps in September BTC surged to nearly $120,000 A prolonged price rally lasting several months 2025 (forecast) Fed may cut 25 bps in September Market predicts recovery from $100,000 towards new highs Dependent on labor data, inflation
From the table above, it can be seen that the Fed's monetary policy decisions always have an immediate impact on BTC's prospects, and investors often take advantage of these periods to optimize profits.
Short-term forecast: What will the cryptocurrency market trends in August and September be like?
The cryptocurrency market's reactions in the coming months will significantly depend on the Fed's messages, actions, and the health of the U.S. economy.
The current base scenario is that the cryptocurrency market, especially BTC, will accumulate before a profit-taking wave and cautious sentiment, then break out when the Fed cuts rates as the market expects.
Historical data and experiences from previous monetary policy adjustments show that this is the time for investors to filter opportunities, rebalance their portfolios, and prepare for a new growth cycle if the Fed 'changes course' in policy.
Strategic notes for cryptocurrency investors in the current context
When macro signals fluctuate significantly, maintaining investment discipline, managing risks, and updating policy developments is crucial.
Financial experts suggest that investors prioritize observing major economic data (such as employment figures, inflation), while avoiding emotional actions or following the crowd – which often leads to short-term losses.
During the accumulation phase, a long-term holding strategy, buying during corrections, and not using excessive leverage will optimize investment effectiveness and limit liquidation risks.
How to recognize signs of a new bull market cycle in cryptocurrency?
Investors need to monitor on-chain indicators such as net inflow into exchanges, significant profit-taking indices, long-term coin holding ratios, and increased trading from whales.
Most importantly, observe signs of the Fed's policy reversal, as well as positive reactions in traditional financial markets – two factors that are always closely connected to BTC prices and the entire cryptocurrency market.
When these signs appear simultaneously with a reversal of large capital flows, it is often a confirmation of a new uptrend cycle.
Risk forecasts and preventive advice in the context of ongoing Fed uncertainties
The market still poses risks if the Fed has not taken decisive action, or if economic data continues to fluctuate unexpectedly.
Investors should diversify their portfolios, use low leverage ratios, and set stop-loss levels in advance to actively manage risk. Continuously updating news and insights from reputable analytical organizations will help optimize investment effectiveness and guard against any worst-case market scenarios.
The upcoming employment and inflation data event at the beginning of August will continue to be a 'guiding compass' for assessing the prospects of the cryptocurrency market by the end of Q3/2025.
Frequently asked questions
How do expectations for the Fed to cut rates in September impact Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market?
According to market experience, the Fed's rate cuts often encourage capital to flow back into risk assets, including BTC and cryptocurrencies, creating momentum for short- to medium-term price increases.
What impact does weak U.S. labor data have on the Fed's decision?
Weak labor data signals that economic growth is stalling, leading the Fed to consider loosening policies, such as cutting rates to support the economy.
Why does BTC still exhibit strong volatility despite expectations for the Fed to cut rates?
Profit-taking sentiment, fluctuations in investment capital, and other macro factors such as U.S. tax policy and geopolitical risks all simultaneously impact BTC prices along with monetary policy information.
Which on-chain indicators should be closely monitored to identify a new uptrend?
Inflow into exchanges, long-term coin holding ratios, profit-taking waves, and whale trading in BTC and ETH are often early indicators of new uptrend waves.
What should investors pay attention to during the accumulation phase?
Patience is needed, focusing on capital management, avoiding excessive leverage, and adhering to a long-term holding strategy while waiting for the market to confirm positive reversal signs.
When should one consider increasing investment proportions in BTC in the near future?
When the Fed officially signals easing, positive economic data changes, and large capital flows return to the market, it should be considered to increase reasonable investment proportions.
What are the biggest risks at this time?
Surprises from U.S. economic data, the Fed not cutting rates as predicted, sudden profit-taking pressure, or tax policies and geopolitical issues may cause significant shocks to the cryptocurrency market.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-tang-manh-nho-ky-vong-lai-suat/
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