Bitcoin sharply dropped to 112,000 USD, facing significant selling pressure from whales and an increased BTC inflow to Binance, but the signal tightening supply could pave the way for a new accumulation phase.
This decline reflects a shift in investor sentiment towards negativity amid strong volatility and a surge in BTC inflows to exchanges, but limited supply helps maintain a higher accumulation price outlook.
MAIN CONTENT
Bitcoin's price has sharply dropped to a 3-week low due to selling pressure from whales and a significant increase in BTC inflow to Binance.
Indicators of capital flow and the Stock-to-Flow ratio suggest that Bitcoin's supply is gradually tightening.
Prices are expected to accumulate around 113,000 USD, but there is a risk of deeper declines if selling pressure continues to rise.
Bitcoin drops sharply to 112,000 USD: What is happening?
Bitcoin has just gone through a strong correction, dropping nearly 5% from the late July peak (119,800 USD) to a 3-week low of 112,000 USD on 2/8.
According to CoinMarketCap data updated by Vietnamese time, the price is currently around 113,600 USD with a 24h trading volume down more than 23%, indicating caution and a defensive sentiment among investors.
The main driving force lies in the strong increase of BTC flowing to Binance, combined with continuous selling pressure from whales, leading to a deeper price decline than expected.
Significant fluctuations in the Bitcoin market often stem from the activities of whales and changes in capital inflows/outflows from exchanges. When the volume of BTC inflows to exchanges increases sharply, the risk of deep declines grows larger.
Glassnode On-chain Report, July 2025
BTC inflow to Binance increases sharply: Signal of panic selling or strategy adjustment?
According to CryptoQuant's analysis, the amount of BTC deposited on Binance has surged from 5,300 BTC to 7,000 BTC in the past month, ending a continuous decline that lasted for 4 months.
A turnaround in BTC inflow to exchanges is seen as an early sign of a shift in investment sentiment. For example, analyst Darkfost mentioned on X that this indicates investors are preparing for strong fluctuations or anticipating new macro changes.
An increase in capital inflow to exchanges corresponds to a rising risk of liquid BTC supply, raising concerns about sell-off pressure in the market.
The BTC inflow indicator to exchanges is often used to identify stages where large investors are preparing to sell or diversify their assets, thus strongly impacting price fluctuations.
CryptoQuant Analysis Team, August 2025
Is the sentiment of Bitcoin investors turning negative?
Not only the capital inflow to exchanges, the Weighted Sentiment index monitored by Santiment has also sharply decreased to -0.78 – indicating that most investors have a negative outlook on Bitcoin's future price.
This index measures the aggregate evaluations, comments, and social media data related to Bitcoin, showing a significant decline in confidence since July.
The pressure of increasing capital inflow to exchanges along with the decline of this sentiment index reflects the risk of further price drops if a strong reversal catalyst is lacking.
Widespread pessimism can easily trigger subsequent sell-off sessions, especially when whales increase liquidity on major exchanges like Binance.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, shared on 3/8/2025 on X
Whales lead the selling wave: How dangerous is this trend?
Alongside the increase in capital inflow to exchanges, the Exchange Whale Ratio – measuring the ratio of large transactions related to whales to total inflow – has surged to 0.7, a very high number in CryptoQuant's historical analysis.
This demonstrates the significant influence of whales on the current price trend, as they collectively transfer large amounts of BTC to exchanges, possibly to take profits, rebalance their portfolios, or proactively anticipate sudden fluctuations.
This trend often extends the correction phase and increases the risk of significant volatility, especially in contexts lacking new buying pressure from retail or institutional markets.
Index Beginning of July 2025 Beginning of August 2025 Impact assessment BTC inflow to Binance 5,300 BTC 7,000 BTC Increased supply to exchanges, risk of sell-off Exchange Whale Ratio 0.54 0.7 Whales dominate the selling trend Weighted Sentiment -0.11 -0.78 Increasing pessimism
Fund Flow Ratio analysis: Is everyone selling?
Although factors like capital inflow to exchanges and Exchange Whale Ratio are increasing, the Fund Flow Ratio – an indicator measuring the rate of inflow to total network transactions – is sharply decreasing to 0.053.
This indicator confirms that not all investors are giving up their positions or panicking. When the Fund Flow Ratio is low, it means that the correlation between BTC inflows and total network activity decreases, indicating that most investors are still holding BTC, not transferring to exchanges to sell.
This could be a precursor to accumulation or price recovery as immediate trading supply becomes limited and new buyers emerge.
The Fund Flow Ratio hitting its monthly low is a signal that long-term investors are still persistent HODLers, helping to support Bitcoin's price during correction phases.
CryptoQuant Quicktake, 3/8/2025
Significant increase in the Stock-to-Flow ratio: Is Bitcoin's supply becoming scarce?
In addition to the decrease in Fund Flow Ratio, Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow ratio has also surged to a monthly peak of 646.21. This reflects a decreasing amount of BTC available for trading in the market.
Stock-to-Flow is a famous indicator used to forecast the rarity and future valuation of Bitcoin, emphasizing the relationship between the current supply and the rate of new supply created through mining.
When this index rises, the supply on exchanges shrinks, reducing the risk of large sell-offs and well supporting the long-term recovery of Bitcoin's price.
A high Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow means reduced supply pressure, thereby increasing the potential for price recovery if new demand re-emerges.
PlanB, a famous cryptocurrency market researcher, July 2025
Can the Bitcoin market accumulate around 113,000 USD in the short term?
According to AMBCrypto's analysis, the current moment sees a coordination between short-term selling pressure from whales and the exhaustion of new buying momentum from the retail group, leading to a strong weakening signal in momentum indicators.
Bitcoin's Directional Movement Index (DMI) dropped to 14, while the Negative Index rose to 21. Meanwhile, the Relative Vigor Index (RVGI) fell to -0.19, confirming the existing weakness in the market.
Under the condition that these technical indicators are declining, the likelihood of Bitcoin continuing to struggle or potentially dropping to the support zone around 110,000 USD is high if there is no strong new buying force.
Risks and recovery scenarios: What will determine the new direction?
The current context is heavily marked by large capital inflow from whales alongside the defensive sentiment of retail markets. If the oversupply state and negative sentiment persist, Bitcoin may easily find lower price levels like 110,000 USD.
However, with the Fund Flow Ratio decreasing alongside a sharply increasing Stock-to-Flow ratio, it is likely that Bitcoin will create an accumulation zone around 113,000 – 117,000 USD, waiting for a buying signal or strong participation from institutional investors or whales to fill buy orders.
Historical experience shows that after major sell-offs with net supply gradually decreasing, the market often enters an accumulation phase, opening the starting point for the next significant recoveries.
What macro factors and major events could reverse the trend?
After the shocking drop in early August 2025, the Bitcoin market has become more sensitive to macro factors such as inflation, Fed interest rate decisions, institutional investment capital, and events related to cryptocurrency ETFs.
Any supportive information or new capital flow from institutional investors could immediately help Bitcoin escape the accumulation trend and bounce back to higher price levels.
Additionally, fluctuations related to mining activities and changes in major countries' regulatory policies regarding cryptocurrencies are significant risks that investors need to closely monitor.
The cryptocurrency market is always sensitive to macroeconomic news and sudden events like ETF approvals, large-scale stablecoin issuances, or shocks from mining.
Messari Research, cryptocurrency industry report June 2025
Comparing the impact of whales and retail investors on Bitcoin's price
Whales often play a guiding role in cash flow and determine short-term trends, while retail investors tend to react more slowly to market fluctuations.
The period from July to early August 2025 once again highlights the dominant role of whales: merely increasing the BTC inflow to exchanges immediately triggers market-wide selling pressure.
Group Role Typical actions Short-term impact Whales Lead trends, strongly impact supply-demand Deposit large amounts of BTC to exchanges, sell or rebalance Increase volatility, create sudden upward/downward waves Retail investors Support extended price HODL long-term, buy during deep declines Slow to react, passive in the face of significant fluctuations.
Where will the Bitcoin market go in the medium term?
The most common scenario based on past data is that Bitcoin will enter an accumulation phase 2–4 weeks after sharp declines. The recovery (if any) usually occurs when new capital or supportive information appears, helping to absorb all previously sold supply.
The recovery will also depend on the whales' actions: will they continue to sell, or will they shift to a buying accumulation phase waiting for a new bullish cycle? Combining a high Stock-to-Flow indicator and a low Fund Flow Ratio is a solid technical foundation to expect Bitcoin to soon surpass the current volatility range.
Cycle analysis patterns on the On-chain chart show that each time the BTC inflow to exchanges peaks, the price usually accumulates an additional 2–7% before bouncing back unless a new unexpected factor arises.
Some risk management notes when trading Bitcoin in sensitive periods
Long-term traders and holders are advised not to use high margins, need to focus on stop-loss points, and proactively increase layers of portfolio protection (cold wallets, diverse Altcoin allocation, managing tokens on reputable exchanges).
Practical experience from bear markets emphasizes the role of On-chain analysis, closely monitoring whale capital flow and supply on exchanges to make optimal trading decisions.
In the context of strong fluctuations, maintaining trading discipline, not FOMO during extreme price movements, and continuously updating On-chain data are key factors to help prevent significant risks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What primarily caused Bitcoin's drop to 112,000 USD?
The main reason comes from whales significantly increasing their BTC deposits to Binance and the market sentiment turning negative, according to CryptoQuant and Santiment data.
What does a low Fund Flow Ratio mean for Bitcoin's price trend?
A low Fund Flow Ratio indicates fewer deposits to exchanges, meaning that most investors are still holding BTC, helping to limit the risk of large-scale sell-offs.
What does the increasing Stock-to-Flow ratio reflect about Bitcoin's supply?
A soaring Stock-to-Flow signals that the circulating supply of BTC is restricted, which is a fundamental factor supporting Bitcoin's price in the medium term.
How do whales impact Bitcoin's price fluctuations?
Whales can steer strong upward/downward waves thanks to significant trading volumes; when they push BTC to exchanges, the risk of sell-offs will increase significantly.
Where will Bitcoin head if whale capital continues to sell?
If whales continue to sell heavily, Bitcoin may drop deeply to around 110,000 USD; conversely, if they stop selling, the market has the potential to accumulate above 113,000 USD.
If the Fund Flow Ratio increases again, what changes will occur in the market?
If the Fund Flow Ratio increases, it means that the amount of BTC going to exchanges is higher, increasing the risk of continued selling pressure, which could drive prices down further.
How does the current retail investor sentiment affect Bitcoin's price?
Retail investors are temporarily observing, with little participation in trading making it difficult for the market to recover strongly without significant capital from whales or institutions.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-giam-manh-nen-ban-hay-giu/
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