Bitcoin just recorded a 7.22% increase in July, reflecting previous post-halving trends; however, Wyckoff signals indicate signs of distribution by large institutions.
Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index continues to rise, indicating that capital flow in the market is shifting strongly towards Altcoins and creating new momentum for this segment.
MAIN CONTENT
Bitcoin continues to demonstrate the traditional price increase cycle post-halving, but signs of distribution from large institutions are emerging.
The Altcoin Season Index and capital flow in the market indicate a trend shifting towards Altcoins with many projects performing outstandingly.
Many experts predict that August may continue to grow, but also warn of the possibility of short-term corrections in September.
How has Bitcoin's performance been in halving years?
In the years of halving, Bitcoin typically has a strong price increase trend in Q3. This pattern has repeated in the years 2013, 2017, and 2021, when miner rewards decrease, contributing to limiting new supply.
History shows that July in these years often records good increases, setting the stage for continued growth in August. In 2025, Bitcoin continues to maintain this pattern with a 7.22% increase in July. Many market analyses rely on this historical data to predict new trends for Q3, indicating high market expectations for the post-halving price increase cycle.
Trading Bitcoin in the post-halving phase often attracts strong attention from both large and small investors, as the probability of prices continuing to rise after previous years is relatively high. In any case, these figures emphasize the importance of cyclical factors and market sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
How do the price increase trends in July and the scenarios for August and September of Bitcoin unfold?
Last July recorded an impressive growth rate of Bitcoin at 7.22%. Many analysts believe this trend may continue into August based on historical post-halving cycles.
However, expert Benjamin Cowen has warned that if the market continues on this trajectory, September may see a strong correction – a phenomenon often seen after hot growth months. He also predicts that October is likely to be the time when Bitcoin breaks out again, based on data from previous cycles.
“If August truly witnesses a surge like the previous halving years, then September will likely be a significant correction phase. October could provide the next growth opportunity for patient investors.”
Benjamin Cowen, cryptocurrency market analyst, 2025, source: X (Twitter)
Warnings about the possibility of a correction in September are not new. Historically, explosive growth months are often followed by technical corrections or profit-taking phases. This is a point to note for both new and experienced investors.
Given the developments of last July, the market is waiting to see if Bitcoin will maintain its growth rhythm like in previous years or if there will be unexpected counter-movements due to the influence of institutional cash flows and an increasingly large market. This factor creates caution and diversification in short-term and long-term investment strategy projections.
Based on technical analysis, can Bitcoin move towards a new ATH?
Current technical models show that Bitcoin is in a positive state, approaching old peak levels with few strong resistance areas above. This reinforces confidence in the possibility of establishing a new historical peak.
In previous post-halving years, August recorded an average increase of up to 43%, including figures of 30%, 77%, and 22% in different phases. If Bitcoin repeats this trend this year, the value could reach $162,000 based on the current price level, thanks to significant growth potential.
“Based on historical growth models, Bitcoin has many positive signals to aim for a new peak in the near future, especially as selling pressure decreases and macro factors support.”
Market analysis report from TradingView, 2025
However, João Wedson's argument, CEO of Alphractal, shows a more cautious perspective. He believes Bitcoin has completed 13 phases in the Wyckoff distribution model, which often signals the distribution point of large institutions and could lead to a sell-off, albeit only short-term.
Compared to previous years, the current market has stronger participation from institutions, causing price volatility to reflect both public sentiment and be affected by large cash flows and the trend of asset movement to the Altcoin segment.
What does the Wyckoff model currently reflect, and have institutional distribution factors emerged yet?
The Wyckoff model is a technical analysis tool used by institutions and large investors to identify cycles of growth, distribution, accumulation, and decline in the market. Currently, some strong signals indicate that Bitcoin is in a distinct distribution phase, especially as prices fluctuate around peak areas and show signs of correction.
João Wedson points out that Bitcoin has gone through enough 13 phases of Wyckoff – a sign to note the distribution movements of 'whales' and large institutions, which often lead to a correction after a long series of increases. However, he assesses this sell-off may only be temporary.
“Bitcoin's performance in the near future is likely to not be very strong, while Altcoins are preparing for a truly noteworthy growth phase.”
João Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, 2025, source: X (Twitter)
As institutions ramp up distribution, Bitcoin trading volume often spikes, but the price does not increase significantly, reflecting a gradual profit-taking mentality at the peak. This is also a reason driving cash flow to more promising Altcoins in the short term.
Reports from many international exchanges indicate that at the beginning of August, Bitcoin's closing price was only $112,000 – the lowest since July 10, after falling below the key support level of $117,000. This further reinforces the argument about selling pressure from institutions and large investors currently existing in the market.
Cash flow is shifting to Altcoins: What is behind this trend?
Analysis data from CoinMarketCap and the Altcoin Season Index show a clear transition of capital from Bitcoin to Altcoins. Specifically, this index rose from 32 to 34 in the past week, indicating that demand and cash flow into Altcoins are increasing.
When Bitcoin falls into a correction or shows weak volatility, investors tend to seek quicker profits in potential Altcoins. New cash flows draw attention to leading trend projects such as MemeCore, Pudgy Penguins, SPX6900, and Conflux – all of which have recorded growth rates over 60% in the last 90 days.
“Altcoins are standing before an explosive opportunity as many groups of investors actively rotate capital seeking better profit margins after Bitcoin weakens its upward momentum.”
CoinMarketCap, Market Trend Report, 2025
The total market capitalization of Altcoins has now reached $1.39 trillion, demonstrating the growing wave of interest and investment in this segment. This trend could be further reinforced if Bitcoin continues to slow down or correct as in previous halving years.
Which prominent Altcoins have outperformed in the past 90 days?
In the context of new capital being strongly pumped into the Altcoin market, many projects have surged with increases of over 60% in just the last three months, creating strong appeal for risk-loving and high-profit traders.
MemeCore (M), Pudgy Penguins (PENGU), SPX6900 (SPX) along with Conflux (CFX) are notable representatives, recording significant growth in each phase. These Altcoins typically have smaller market capitalizations than Bitcoin, making them easy targets for hot money with surging price increases under the influence of FOMO effects as well as the spread from active investment communities.
The outstanding performance of the aforementioned Altcoins is proof of the highly flexible capital rotation in the global cryptocurrency market, especially during Bitcoin's inability to maintain strong upward momentum as expected. Diversifying choices helps minimize concentration risks and expand profit opportunities for individual investors.
Altcoin Season Index: When does the strength indicator confirm the true Altcoin season?
The Altcoin Season Index is a tool used to monitor cash flow and relative strength between Bitcoin and Altcoins. The slight increase from 32 to 34 this week indicates that Altcoins are receiving renewed attention along with potential investment cash flow.
If the Altcoin Season Index continues to move above 50 – the threshold establishing a true 'Altcoin season' – it will confirm the trend of cash flow strongly returning to Altcoins and the possibility of large-scale price increases affecting many small segments.
“When the Altcoin Season Index steadily rises above 50, it is a signal confirming that the real Altcoin season has begun, with strong growth potential across many small asset types.”
AMBCrypto, Cryptocurrency Market Analysis, 2025
This index is often used alongside total market capitalization data to confirm strong and weak signals between asset classes. With Altcoin market capitalization reaching $1.39 trillion, the market is entering an optimistic mindset, awaiting a broad growth phase in Q3 if macro factors and cash flow continue to support.
What will happen to the market if Bitcoin corrects in September?
The history of halving years indicates that if Bitcoin suddenly corrects in September, there will be a great opportunity for Altcoins to accelerate strongly to become the profit focal point due to capital rotation effects.
The distribution and profit-taking actions of institutions and whales also set the stage for Altcoins to play a role as the next destination for venture capital. This aligns with observations in previous cycles when Altcoin season often falls during periods when Bitcoin weakens and accumulates.
As a result, traders and investors will have more opportunities to hunt for potential projects, optimize their portfolios, and increase performance through the rapid rotation of market trends.
Comparison table of Bitcoin and Altcoin in Q3 of halving years
Criteria Bitcoin Altcoin Average price increase in August (after halving) 43% 30-60% (some projects over 60%) Capital momentum Focused on institutions, miners New money flow, active retail community Cash flow spikes Slowing down after July/August Exploding when Bitcoin corrects Volatility risk Lower, but affected when cash flow distributes Higher, but grows rapidly in Altcoin season
Overview of the Q3/2025 trend in the cryptocurrency market
Overall, Bitcoin continues to show its role as the 'leader' of the market in halving cycles, but as soon as signs of institutional distribution or technical corrections appear, cash flow shifts strongly to Altcoins.
With the Altcoin Season Index steadily rising, many projects have recorded exceptional performances, and Altcoin market capitalization has reached historical highs, Q3 could become a golden period for flexible investors ready to transform their investment strategies.
Industry reports emphasize the importance of monitoring Wyckoff signals, the Altcoin Season Index, and the trend of profit shifts to make the most reasonable decisions about asset allocation. Caution before institutional distribution phases helps minimize liquidity risks and protect profits in the current volatile environment.
Frequently Asked Questions about Bitcoin and Altcoin Market Trends Q3/2025
What does Bitcoin's 7.22% increase in July signify?
The 7.22% increase reflects the repetition of the Q3 bull cycle post-halving, which has occurred continuously in the years 2013, 2017, and 2021.
How will August and September traditionally unfold for Bitcoin?
History shows that August often continues to rise sharply, while September is likely to see a correction before returning to growth in October.
What does the Wyckoff model predict for the current Bitcoin trend?
When completing all 13 Wyckoff phases, the Bitcoin market often shows strong distribution signals from large institutions, easily leading to short-term corrections.
What does the rise of the Altcoin Season Index to 34 mean?
This index indicates that cash flow is strongly shifting towards Altcoins, opening up strong growth potential for smaller asset groups than Bitcoin.
Which Altcoins recorded good performance in Q3/2025?
Notable names include MemeCore, Pudgy Penguins, SPX6900, Conflux – all increasing over 60% in just the last 90 days, outperforming the market.
When does the Altcoin season actually begin?
When the Altcoin Season Index surpasses 50 and maintains an upward trend, the market often enters Altcoin season with widespread performance across many projects.
Experts believe that cash flow will continue to shift further into Altcoins?
CoinMarketCap reports and expert opinions affirm that cash flow will continue to be stronger into Altcoins if Bitcoin corrects in September.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/altcoin-tang-btc-mat-uu-the/
Thank you for reading this article!
Please Like, Comment, and Follow TinTucBitcoin to stay updated with the latest news in the cryptocurrency market and not miss any important information!
