1. Major Prediction Sources
• Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy CEO): Based on a model of companies holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset, predicting Bitcoin price to reach 1.4 million USD by 2030, potentially exceeding 10 million USD in the long term.
• Cathie Wood (ARK Invest): Based on a model of Bitcoin gaining market share from gold, predicting over 1 million USD within 5 years after 2030.
• Other Perspectives: Emphasizing the role of stablecoins, the US Treasury (citing institutions like BlackRock) predicts that the issuance of stablecoins will reach 3.7 trillion USD by 2030 (currently about 0.2 trillion + 3.5 trillion converted from bank reserve projects for USD exchange rate hedging).
2. Policies and Macroeconomic Background
• Trump's Policies: Aimed at maintaining USD hegemony through stablecoins and Bitcoin, has legally supported compliant stablecoins (such as USDC). Stablecoin growth can prevent inflation but requires Bitcoin as a 'reservoir' to absorb funds.
• History of Stablecoin Growth:
◦ 2014: Almost zero (predecessor of Tether, RealCoin, launched).
◦ 2017: Millions of USD scale.
◦ 2018: 2.8 billion USD.
◦ 2024: 1.18 trillion USD.
◦ 2025 Prediction: 2.5 trillion USD (influenced by the passage of Bitcoin ETF, rapid growth).
• Current Market: Total scale of approximately 2.5 trillion USD, Tether (USDT) accounts for 75%, mainly used for USD/EUR hedging.
3. Correlation Analysis of Stablecoins and Bitcoin
• The growth of stablecoins is positively correlated with Bitcoin prices, but the ratio (Bitcoin price growth / stablecoin growth) varies by market phase:
◦ 2019-2020: Ratio 0.8 (stablecoin growth 5 times, Bitcoin growth 4 times).
◦ 2020-2021 (bull market): Ratio 0.34 (stablecoin growth 7 times, Bitcoin growth 2.4 times, many funds flow into altcoins).
◦ 2021-2022 (bear market): Ratio slightly rises (funds shift from altcoins to Bitcoin).
◦ 2023-2025 (post-ETF): Ratio 1.3 (stablecoin growth doubles, Bitcoin remains strong).
• Minimum ratio 0.34 (bear market), maximum 1.3 (bull market).
• Policy Factors (such as G7 regulations, US Bitcoin strategic reserves) will enhance correlation and drive more institutional funds in.
4. Price Prediction Model
• Based on stablecoins growing from 2.5 trillion to 3.7 trillion (about 15 times), combined with historical ratios calculated:
◦ Bear Market Scenario (ratio 0.5): Bitcoin reaches 590,000-600,000 USD by 2030.
◦ Base Scenario (ratio 1.0): Reaching 1.3 million USD.
◦ Bull Market Scenario (ratio 1.3): Reaching 1.4 million USD.
• Possibility in advance: If Trump accelerates policies starting in 2025, stablecoin growth over 32% could lead to a bull market prediction (1.4 million USD) by 2027. Current Bitcoin price assumed at 118,000 USD.
• Additional Driving Factors: Government/Corporate Strategic Reserves (such as the US purchasing Bitcoin), inflation hedging demand.
5. Risks and Considerations
• Historical data may not necessarily apply (many old charts are invalid in this cycle).
• The proportion of stablecoins could decrease relative to Bitcoin, leading to prices not meeting expectations.
• Policy Risks: The Democratic Party coming to power may amend regulations (such as banning strategic reserves).
• Bitcoin is highly volatile, not a risk-free investment.
• The video emphasizes personal views, not investment advice, and recommends monitoring changes in laws and regulations.
Overall Conclusion: If policies support stability, Bitcoin could reach 600,000-1.4 million USD between 2027-2030. Investors need to monitor stablecoin growth, institutional adoption, and political dynamics over the next 5 years.